From now until the 2024 NFL Draft, we will scout and create profiles for as many prospects as possible, examining their strengths, weaknesses, and what they can bring to an NFL franchise. These players could be potential top-10 picks, all the way down to Day 3 selections, and priority undrafted free agents. Today, a scouting report on Washington QB Michael Penix.
#9 Michael Penix Jr./QB Washington – 6022, 216 pounds (Senior)
MEASUREMENTS
| Player | Ht/Wt | Hand Size | Arm Length | Wingspan |
| Michael Penix | 6022/216 | 10 1/2″ | 33 5/8″ | 81″ |
| 40-Yard Dash | 10-Yard Dash | Short Shuttle | 3-Cone | |
| N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Broad Jump | Vertical | Bench Press | ||
| N/A | N/A | N/A |
The Good
– Flashes some mobility to extend plays, which is seen from his pocket presence
– Two monster years production-wise in Washington, where he finished top 8 in Heisman voting both times
– Ideal frame for a starting quarterback
– Shows the maturity to go through reads and pick apart coverage
– Good mixture of playing smart with check-downs and giving his guys a chance with one-on-one situations
– Really great arm strength to hit the deep throws at a high level
– Gets the ball out of his hands quickly with a handful of good mechanics like a fast wrist flick
The Bad
– Not an ideal age for a franchise quarterback turning 24 shortly after the draft compared to a younger guy they can develop more
– Concerning medical history with four straight season-ending injuries
– Noticeably not on the same accuracy level as Maye or Williams, which can be seen from missing a handful of open targets
– Left-handed quarterback that could cause teams not to want to adapt their offensive schemes to accommodate for that
– Needs to show he can consistently hit tight window throws so that he is not bailed out by his receivers
– Most of his mistakes are inexcusable decision-making by throwing into closed windows with a handful of defenders blanketing the receiver
Bio
– 23 years old (May 8th, 2000)
– Played in 20 games from 2018-2021 for Indiana and 28 games for Washington from 2022-2023
– 14,006 total yards, 109 total touchdowns, 34 interceptions, 146.6 quarterback rating, and a 63.3% completion percentage in his college career
– 4,911 total yards, 39 total touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 157.1 quarterback rating, and a 65.4% completion percentage in 2023
– Torn ACL in 2018, Sternoclavicular joint injury in 2019, Torn ACL in 2020, AC joint injury in 2021
– Three-star QB in his 2018 high school class from Tampa, FL
– Says he decided to transfer to Washington from Indiana because he wanted to “finish his college career the best way possible” and said he needed to do that somewhere else
– Played baseball and ran track in high school
– Threw 61 touchdowns to only six interceptions in two seasons of high school
– Born in Tennessee but moved to Florida, where he was raised
Tape Breakdown
Starting with the bad, a lot of the mistakes Penix makes are inexcusable bad decision-type throws. I understand the thought process here of trying to fit it between the corner and safety inside for the receiver, but it’s an overall bad decision. Penix hasn’t consistently shown to fit balls into small windows without the receiver bailing him out, and here you can see it was almost effortless for the safety to break on this ball. Interceptions like this aren’t as uncommon as they should be, considering he did nearly the same exact thing later in the quarter.
— Steven (@Elspedd2) March 17, 2024
Similar to the last play, here is another bad decision mistake by Penix. To be fair to Penix, the defenders did seem to be confused on their assignments so he wanted to take advantage of that. However, he didn’t account for one of the defenders (#21) to correct his course and take Penix’s receiver away. This caused another interception and was once again a pretty careless decision. Throws like these seem as if Penix undermines the competition he’s playing against and overvalues his arm talent.
— Steven (@Elspedd2) March 17, 2024
Going to the good side of Penix, I wanted to start with his mobility. Film like this, where he can spin away from a collapsing pocket and outrun defenders to extend the play, improves his stock so much. He ends up throwing a dime to his receiver with three defenders in the area on the run while it’s third and 18. Everything about this play is overly impressive and shows how high his ceiling can be.
— Steven (@Elspedd2) March 17, 2024
From an accuracy perspective, Penix ranks as the third most accurate in the class for me. This kind of play is his bread and butter. His receiver has a slight step on the DB; he floats it over the defender’s head right into the breadbasket for his receiver to haul in the easy touchdown. Penix has a lot of highlight-worthy plays that include the receiver making insane catches or having a ton of separation, but he also has plays like these consistently, where the receiver only has one step, yet Penix fits it perfectly in there on the sideline.
— Steven (@Elspedd2) March 17, 2024
Here, Washington runs the same kind of play against Oregon with a different look, and the result ends up the same. This shows Penix’s consistency and ability to make this kind of throw at a high level. Teams will value the ability Penix has to execute the things he excels at over and over again.
— Steven (@Elspedd2) March 17, 2024
Conclusion
The main downfall to Michael Penix’s stock is going to be the injury concern paired with his age. Players like JJ McCarthy, who are multiple years younger with a fraction of the injury concerns, are going to be favored for these reasons despite not being as polished. However, as an overall quarterback, Penix does a lot more good than bad. Before opting out of the Senior Bowl game, I would say he was the only quarterback that didn’t hurt their stock in the week-long practices.
Penix has great arm strength and gets the ball out with some unconventional mechanics, but none that are truly negative. He has a great frame that teams look for in their starter and shows he is mobile enough to maneuver the pocket to buy more time. He has a handful of plays on tape that show bad accuracy as well as his very talented receiving core bailing him out, but I really don’t think it happens often enough to be concerned and ignore the good stuff he does.
As for being a lefty, I’d like to say that won’t hurt his stock with Tua Tagovailoa playing lights out this year, yet I really do think teams do not want to adapt their schemes to accommodate it. Penix has a floor of being a serviceable backup for multiple years while having the ceiling of a Pro Bowler, which is going to be great value if he slips to the second round.
Projection: Late Day One-Early Day Two
Depot Draft Grade: 8.5 – Future Quality Starter (Second Round)
Games Watched: Cal (2023), USC (2023), Senior Bowl (2023), UCLA (2022)
