Fresh off their bye week, the 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are set to face the 7-2 Washington Commanders. Each team is on a roll, winning their last three games, in what should be an entertaining challenge. Let’s dive into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – Rookie second overall pick Jayden Daniels has made a lot of noise, playing well beyond his years and presents several challenges as a passer, and with his legs.
Through nine games: 228 pass attempts (19th), stellar 71.5 completion rate (third) and 79.3 adjusted completion rate (T-sixth) which measures accuracy. 1,945 pass yards (13th), 8.5 YPA (T-fifth), 8.3 ADOT (18th), nine TDs (T-19th), and just two interceptions (T-sixth). Impressive marks out of 41 qualifiers (min. 50 pass attempts).
Pittsburgh’s defense will have a tough test with Daniels. If they can force rare mistake(s) from him as a top five unit in takeaways, it would bode well for the Steelers keeping their winning streak alive.
For further context, here are QBs turnover-worthy play rates, along with big time throw rates to see extreme positive and negative plays through the midpoint of the 2024 season:
Looking at Daniels first, we see a QB that’s been above the mean in both data points. As expected, his 1.6 TWP is the stronger number, tying for fourth-best among his peers. He also brings a big play threat, with a 4.2 BTT, which ranks 20th. 10 big time throws per PFF, lands even better (T-14th), so Pittsburgh’s DBs need to have a big game against this dynamic pass game.
The sample size is small, but Steelers QB Russell Wilson has been similarly strong. A 5.0 BTT (T-seventh) and 1.5 TWP (T-third) is even better than Daniels, and will be needed if Washington continues to put up a similar 29.2 PPG (third-most) as they have so far in 2024.
When comparing him to Justin Fields, we get context to why Pittsburgh’s pass game has surged of late. Landing below the mean with a 3.5 BTT (T-25th) that looked much more conservative, while he was still above average in limiting turnovers (19th), slightly. Here’s to hoping Wilson has better rates than Daniels, which would bode well to victory.
Daniels is very mobile as well. Here’s a visual of the top QB rushers in 2024:
Daniels is the second leading rusher at the position, only to Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, and one of just two players with 450-plus. Daniels’ 459 rush yards is 100 yards more than any other QB, putting he and Jackson in a league of their own. Huge key for Pittsburgh’s defense to hopefully limit.
In a recent Steelers defense rushing success article, I found that Pittsburgh has the most successful unit against scrambles in 2024, and have faced some mobile QB’s. No one with Daniels’ success though, and this element will be crucial.
RUNNING BACKS – They are a committee group. Run it frequently, and lots of read option off Daniels’ abilities. Difficult for most defenses, including Pittsburgh. RB Brian Robinson leads them with 101 carries (25th/47, min. 50 attempts), 461 yards (23rd), 4.6 YPA (18th), and six TDs (T-sixth) all in the red zone.
Robinson will not play though (hamstring), and Washington has struggled in the red zone (26th), despite Robinson’s TDs. Pittsburgh’s defense has been dominant in the red zone too, what you want to see through Steelers lenses.
They also added Austin Ekeler, a very dynamic threat. At least one 20-plus run in four games this year, and five games as a receiver. Pittsburgh keeping a lid on will be crucial. Expect laser focus coming off some leaky run defense last game. Ekeler has a scary 5.6 YPA (fourth), on 50 carries, 282 yards, and two TDs in 2024.
Both have healthy YPA, along with Daniels’ 5.6 and two other backs as well (5.4, 4.7), reiterating Washington’s general rushing success (5.0, T-fifth).
Let’s look at eight men in the box rates, and efficiency (lower numbers = north/south runners):
Ekeler has the NFL’s top rank in EFF (2.97), one of only two players below three. So, he is getting vertical quickly and often. Robison ranks 13th as well, so the Steelers need to be very gap and assignment sound. They have also seen 8MIB well below average (38th, 41st/47 qualifiers), with their pass game threat opening them up and complimenting each other well.
Steeler Najee Harris is coming off three-straight 100-yard games. Different style, with 3.95 EFF (29th). Makes sense in Pittsburgh’s primarily wide-zone scheme compared to Washington’s read-option. Harris has seen below average 17.6 8MIB (30th). That’s come down the last three weeks as he’s found more success. Washington has 8MIB well below ten that last three games, so if that reoccurs, expect a big day for Harris and company.
That’d be huge to add to his 136 attempts (eighth), 592 yards (14th), 4.4 YPA (28th), and two TDs, controlling time-of-possession and playing keep away from Washington’s offense.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Another tough proposition is their WR1, Terry McLaurin. He has 60 targets (T-16th), 42 catches (T-13th), 598 yards (seventh), 15.7 ADOT (T-eighth), 14.2YPR (30th), and six TDs (T-second). Some deep misses, but Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. will likely follow him, and needs to have a nice day on Scary Terry.
Here are percent of teams air yards (TAY) and catch rates (CTH) this season:
The matchup features two WRs that dominate TAY. McLaurin’s 46.5 is second-most in the NFL, just above Steelers George Pickens third rank (46.0). What also stands out is all three Commanders qualifiers (90, min. 25 targets) have above average 70-plus CTH. McLaurin sits at 70.0 (T-19th), with Noah Brown (71.0) one spot higher, and Olamide Zaccheaus leading them (72.4, 13th).
Brown has 31 targets, 22 catches, 318 yards, 12.1 ADOT (40th), 14.5 YPR (27th), and one TD. Zaccheaus – 29 targets, 21 catches, 224 yards, 5.5 ADOT (87th, fourth-least), 10.7 YPR (68th), and no TDs. So, Brown’s been more intermediate, while Zaccheaus in the short game. All challenging, with the latter possibly having a big day with how much zone Pittsburgh has been playing.
Pickens and Austin land below NFL average in catch rates (60.3, 56.0), but improved connection with Wilson greatly last game. Pickens now has 58 targets (T-21st), 35 catches (T-21st), 548 yards (16th), 13.4 ADOT (T-20th), 15.7 YPR (T-17th), and one TD. Washington acquired a stud CB Marshawn Lattimore this week, but is out (hamstring). Bullet dodged.
Pittsburgh made a couple trades as well, including WR Mike Williams, and his involvement out of the gates is intriguing. His 21 targets are similar to Austin (25) and Van Jefferson (20). My Steelers receivers passing charts revealed a deep threat specialist would really complete this pass game, and that’s Williams.
Here’s some numbers for comparison: Austin – 257 yards, 12.0 ADOT, 18.4 YPR, TDs. Williams – 166 yards, 14.9 ADOT, 13.8 YPR, no TDs. Jefferson – 139 yards, 10.3 ADOT, 9.9 YPR, one TD. Can’t wait to see how this more complete room looks Sunday and beyond.
TIGHT ENDS – The challenges continue, with a familiar name and skilled TE Zach Ertz. He has 46 targets (ninth), 33 catches (eighth), 350 yards (tenth), and a TD. More involved than Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth: 31 targets (22nd), 26 catches (T-19th), 266 yards (20th), and two TDs.
The Steelers personnel groupings that feature heavy TEs is part of this, getting more targets throughout the room (and team) with Wilson, while Washington’s TE targets are top heavy.
Something that sticks out on Ertz is his intended air yards from Daniels. Let’s see what that looks like, along with TE receiving yards to date:
Ertz has been targeted downfield often, with an 8.5 IAY, fourth-most among TEs. Steelers LB Patrick Queen has taken his lumps this season, including coverage, and like the chances of Payton Wilson being asked to step up, along with team zone defense hopefully corralling IAY.
While Freiermuth has had moments this season, these elements have been disappointing. It’s been largely short game and YAC for Pittsburgh’s TEs, including Freiermuth’s 5.3 IAY that ranks 27th out of the 33 qualifiers. Intermediate passes have been sprinkled in, but hope to see more downfield from Wilson/Freiermuth, including play-action.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously key to any matchup.
Here are PFF blocking grades:
What stands out overall is Pittsburgh having the highest BLK grades, Washington’s largely better PBLK. Looks like Commanders LT Cornelius Lucas (ankle) will miss the game, who has their best PBLK.
Here’s the Giants’ expected group:
LT Brandon Coleman: 65.7 RBLK (35th/69), 62.0 PBLK (52nd).
LG Nick Allegretti: 65.5 RBLK (31st/68), 73.4 PBLK (16th).
C Tyler Biadasz: 61.1 RBLK (21st/34), 79.3 PBLK (2nd).
RG Sam Cosmi: 63.4 RBLK (41st/68), 78.5 PBLK (5th).
RT Andrew Wylie: 57.1 RBLK (53rd/69), 67.1 PBLK (46th).
While their unit has good PBLK, the tackles are the exception. So, Steelers edge rushers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith will hopefully have a big day per usual. Highsmith is coming off a career game in terms of pressures (12), and can hopefully capitalize on their backup LT.
Washington’s strong interior pass pro versus Pittsburgh’s strong unit will be key. DL Cam Heyward and company will hopefully win out, making Daniels feel their presence, considering his 56.5 pass grade under pressure (90.7 kept clean) while keeping him corralled on scrambles.
Their RBLK is largely below average, facing the Steelers fourth ranked Steelers defense in rush yards. They’re fifth in YPA though, so clearly need to be ready for their tough scheme I broke down earlier.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore: 68.5 RBLK (28th/69), 72.6 PBLK (31st).
LG Isaac Seumalo: 70.6 RBLK (19th/68), 60.5 PBLK (48th).
C Zach Frazier: 84.1 RBLK (5th/34), 63.8 PBLK (18th).
RG Mason McCormick: 57.6 RBLK (53rd/68), 56.4 PBLK (55th).
RT Broderick Jones: 55.4 RBLK (56th/69), 40.7 PBLK (67th).
The big news is rookie C Zach Frazier, set to return from a Week Six injury. He was balling out, and hopefully continues where he left off, with particularly strong RBLK (fifth-best center). The left side of Seumalo and Moore has strong RBLK too. Considering Washington’s 30th ranked rush YPA, including issues on that side, I’d run that way most.
PFF grades are subjective, but McCormick (I’m higher on his play) and Jones (not at all) have Pittsburgh’s worst overall marks. Particularly Jones in pass pro (third-worst grade), allowing the most sacks (seven) in the NFL. Hoping the bye week was a time to reset, and step up his performance. Commanders EDGE Dante Fowler and Dorance Armstrong play that side, and lead them in sacks, huge key.
DEFENSES – Pittsburgh is typically the stronger unit it most games, true in this one on paper. Washington is eighth in pass yards allowed though, compared to 30th in run defense (Steelers 15th pass, fourth rush). Pittsburgh’s second ranked scoring defense (14.9) hopefully pans out, while Washington ranks 11th (21.0) could limit the scoreboard.
Situationally, Pittsburgh has stronger 34.7 third down (11th) and second ranked 37.5 red zone touchdown rates. Commanders: 41.8 third down (22nd), 69.2 red zone (29th). Knock on wood Pittsburgh’s offense can excel (13th in scoring, 14th third down), but the concern is a 30th ranked 46.4 red zone TD rate. Winning the red zone battle likely = win.
Expected points added (EPA) is a nice stat for impact on games on a play-by-play basis. Here are defenses pass and run EPA through Week 9:
Pittsburgh: 13th pass defense EPA, third run defense EPA. Washington: 17th pass defense EPA, 28th run defense EPA. Advantage Pittsburgh on paper. LB Bobby Wagner is their best defender, still great in year 13, and hopefully Pittsburgh has a sound plan to not allow him to wreck the game.
If the Steelers can do that, I like their chances to continue their positive trend on offense, and ideally the victory. That will be needed, along with Pittsburgh’s defense hopefully limiting one of their toughest challenges to date against Washington’s potent offense.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Commanders
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
