The Pittsburgh Steelers, who closed the 2023 season with a 10-7 record, face the 11-6 Buffalo Bills, who are on a red hot five-game winning streak. Even if the game’s postponement avoids the worst of the weather, conditions for this game are still expected to be cold, snowy, and windy.
Buffalo QB Josh Allen is one of the best at the position but has been more volatile than his typical self in 2023. He was top five with 579 attempts (fifth), 4,307 yards (fourth), and 29 TDs (T-fifth), respectively. A major change this season was more turnovers, throwing 18 interceptions, worst in his career and tied for second most in 2023.
Given that Pittsburgh’s defense tied for 11th in interceptions and led the league in red zone interceptions, here is hoping that reoccurs and swings things in the Black and Gold’s favor.
Pittsburgh’s Mason Rudolph continues to hold the reigns for the Steelers due to his encouraging three starts to close 2023. He had 74 attempts, 719 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in three games, including a nice game in the finale when conditions were less than ideal. Not to the extreme that is expected on Sunday but encouraging to have on his recent resume going into this game.
Several encouraging stats are in the process as well. Some that I haven’t written about that I have are adjusted completion percent (aimed passes thrown on target) and drop rate (on-target receiver drops):
Important context to Rudolph’s impressive stretch with an NFL-best 80.9 ACP among 52 qualifiers. This included Rudolph’s impressive 90-percent completion rate in the finale, albeit on short targets largely. Fits the expected script this week and hopefully continues.
Pittsburgh’s playmakers deserve props for no drops in that stretch, and the Steelers are the only team in the span with that bragging right. Seeing the rest of the Steelers QB room on the visual is also telling, with Steelers’ playmakers dropping Kenny Pickett’s passes the most and both he and Mitch Trubisky having below average ACPs.
Then we see Allen with a 76.6 ACP (16th) but a slightly below the line 6.8 drop rate (T-31st, matchup-low). While Allen threw an interception in 14 of 17 games, the receiving end shares some blame in some early-season struggles.
Then there’s the running element to the challenge Allen presents. He was one of four QBs with over 500 rushing yards in 2023:
The run game is expected to be leaned on heavily, and Allen is a big part, with Buffalo also leading the league in 2023 rushing-success rates. This includes late downs, where Allen is great at moving the chains, tying Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts for the most 2023 non-RB rushing TDs. With low potential of a gunslinger game, fingers are crossed that Pittsburgh’s defense can key in and limit the Bills’ run game.
Buffalo’s main man is James Cook, who was impressive in the regular season. He posted 1,122 yards, one of 12 RBs with 1,000 rushing yards in 2023, including Najee Harris:
Cook lands fourth, along with 10 in attempts (237) and 4.7 YPA (seventh). Pittsburgh’s ground game finished 2023 with a bang, including Harris’ seventh-ranked 1,035 rushing yards, 255 attempts (sixth), and an improved 4.1 YPA (27th, 49 qualifiers).
Let’s get more context with efficiency (EFF=distance traveled per rush yards, measures north/south runners) and eight men in the box percent (8MIB):
Great information for the running backs and their production. Cook’s 10.1 8MIB is fourth-least, and he’s one of the most straight-ahead rushers (3.5, seventh). Cautious optimism here for the Steelers considering the conditions could aid for loading the box, and hopefully limiting the Bills’ successful ground game.
Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren lands in the same neighborhood as Cook, with 3.6 EFF (13th) and slightly higher 12.9 8MIB (eighth-least). In an overall encouraging 2023 campaign, things trended down in the finale, part of Pittsburgh’s fumbling issues in the wet conditions. That’s concerning heading into this matchup.
Harris is the only outlook player above the mean in both (slightly). 3.8 EFF (32nd) and earned more respect as the run game has strengthened (20.8 8MIB, 18th). Impressive context to his last two games with 100-plus rushing yards and three touchdowns.
With the expected shorter passing game from both teams, running backs will likely be quite involved as receivers also. Cook had the eighth-most RB receiving yards this season. Warren was 13th, and Pittsburgh’s backs each got five targets and catches in the finale, matching a season-high for Harris.
In regard to wide receivers, it all starts with the Bills’ Stefon Diggs, one of the best in the league at the position. He was one of 11 players with 100 catches this season:
Diggs’ 107 receptions were eighth-most in 2023, en route to 1,183 yards (13th), along with tying for seventh in touchdowns with eight on 160 targets (seventh). Pittsburgh CB Joey Porter Jr. has claimed he will “lock ’em up”, but certainly easier said than done. I can’t wait to see this intriguing battle.
Here’s a view of targeted air yards (TAY) and yards after catch (YAC) averages:
The TAY leader of the outlook is Buffalo WR Gabe Davis (fourth leaguewide). A volatile but serious deep threat, he has been ruled out for the game after posting a respectable 4.3 YAC this season that Pittsburgh is all too familiar with. Big loss, despite less explosive air-yard passing expected.
We see WR Khalil Shakir on the other end of the spectrum, with the NFL’s third-best 7.6 YAC. This came on 45 targets (least among 86 qualifiers), maximizing those opportunities with 611 yards (53rd), on a low 8.3 TAY (71st). Diggs was below average in both, with 10.1 TAY (55th) and 4.0 YAC (52nd).
Wide receiver George Pickens is the first Steeler to lead the NFL in YPC in more than a decade in his great second season. He has the best balance of both in the outlook with 6.6 YAC (seventh) and a healthy 13.2 TAY (19th), en route to 1,140 yards, which slightly trailed Diggs’ 1,183 on 44 less catches (63).
Wideout Diontae Johnson moved up the chart the last two weeks, with a 12.5 TAY (26th) and 5.0 YAC (31st). Better quality connection downfield and YAC with Rudolph is encouraging. Buffalo’s coverage plan on defense is huge and whether it doubles Pickens like Baltimore did in his no-target season finale.
TE Dalton Kincaid had a great rookie year, with 73 catches (T-seventh) and 673 yards (10th). Two of several areas he’s been strong in are separating (SEP) and catch rate:
Kincaid posted the NFL’s second-best 80.2 catch rate among 29 qualifiers (min. 45 targets). An aid to his dependable hands is the first-round draft pick enjoying the fifth-most separation (3.8) and is coming off his two highest-yardage games to boot. Pittsburgh has struggled against the position but is getting healthy at the right time on the back end, especially with the return of Pro Bowl FS Minkah Fitzpatrick. A huge key to limiting Kincaid.
Thirty-two catches and 308 yards were well-below expectations for Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth’s 2023 season, each ranking in the bottom three. He was also below average on the visual, with 2.9 SEP (24th) and a 68.1 catch rate (22nd). Hoping for a red zone touchdown with just two scores from him in the first three games of 2023, ironically matching Kincaid’s season total.
Pittsburgh’s tight ends have upped the ante as blockers and knock on wood, they keep this encouraging trend going as the hopeful stronger unit in the matchup.
Here are OL PFF-grades:
Buffalo has the edge particularly in PBLK and have seemingly played better than their grades imply.
Bills:
LT Dion Dawkins (66.3-RBLK,76.4-PBLK)
LG Connor McGovern (48.5-RBLK,74.2-PBLK)
C Mitch Morse (62.0-RBLK,72.8-PBLK)
RG O’Cyrus Torrence (59.6-RBLK,49.2-PBLK)
RT Spencer Brown (71.9-RBLK,65.0-PBLK)
Steelers:
LT Dan Moore Jr. (57.7-RBLK,39.7-PBLK)
LG Isaac Seumalo (71.0-RBLK,65.5-PBLK)
C Mason Cole (65.7-RBLK,39.6-PBLK)
RG James Daniels (59.9-RBLK,60.4-PBLK)
RT Broderick Jones (62.9-RBLK,52.1-PBLK)
Morse posted the NFL’s ninth-worst RBLK, while Torrence has the lowest PBLK (15th-worst). Moore is 2023’s worst pass-blocking OT, while Cole was second-worst among centers. Pittsburgh’s unit largely having stronger RBLK matches the eye test, and at times could have received more credit.
It will certainly be a battle of the trenches, the biggest key of the game, with Pittsburgh needing to keep that encouraging “bully ball” that has been a joy to watch in recent weeks.
Defense. Buffalo’s 2023 defense was solid, including several key metrics in my recent “CATS” article.
The turnover rate will likely point to the victor, and who allows the fewest points. Here are those rates for 2023 defenses:
The Bills sport the best 16.0 TOP in 2023, making it crucial for Pittsburgh’s offense to continue limiting turnovers (T-second-least). Buffalo’s 32.0 SPA was also strong, tying for seventh. The Steelers defense fared well in each with a 14.2 TOP (T-seventh) and 33.7 SPA (12th). Whoever loses these battles will likely be on the couch soon with Buffalo having that edge on paper.
