As we’ve been doing for several years now, we’ll break down the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opponent each week, telling you what to expect from a scheme and individual standpoint. Like last year, Josh Carney and I will cover the opposing team’s offense. I will focus on the scheme, Josh on the players.
For the first time this postseason, our scouting report on the Buffalo Bills’ offense.
ALEX’S SCHEME REPORT
Bills Run Game
While Josh Allen’s big arm and the Bills’ pass game often get the credit, their run game has been effective and overlooked. RB James Cook is their tap back and shifty, sort of like Seattle’s Kenneth Walker, though Walker is bulkier and runs with more power. Still, Cook is talented and rushed for over 1,000 yards this season, carrying the ball 237 times and averaging a healthy 4.7 yards per carry. Finding the end zone hasn’t been his strength, in large part due to Josh Allen’s nose for the end zone close to the goal line, and Cook has just two rushing scores this season. He also has four fumbles, and they’ve come in bunches, two in two games this season. Maybe he gets rattled a bit.
But Allen is having a special year. He has 15 rushing touchdowns, tied for the most by a quarterback in NFL history with the Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts, who also has 15 this year. Allen can scramble and extend plays, but there are plenty of designed quarterback runs in this offense. While this includes scrambles, 41.7 percent of his runs have come on third down. Nearly half of his attempts come on third and fourth down, the heavy and weighty moments where Buffalo needs to convert. And 21 of his rushes, nearly 20 percent, and 12 of his touchdowns have come inside the opponent’s 10-yard line.
Those are their top two runners, but they also have Leonard Fournette, who played in Week 18 against the Miami Dolphins. They call him “Playoff Lenny” with nine career rushing scores. Don’t sleep on him.
They are willing to use multiple tight ends and sometimes go heavy with a fullback, No. 41 Reggie Gilliam, and will use a sixth offensive lineman, often No. 76 David Edwards. But they will also use these sets to influence the run and use play-action off of it.
Some other rushing stats. To highlight their commitment to the running game, their 512 rushing attempts rank fifth in football. Their 4.3 YPC is eighth, and their 22 rushing touchdowns are tied for fifth-most. They have a whopping 60 runs in the regular season, gaining 10-plus yards, tied-seventh in the league.
Conceptually, they love their Dart scheme. Dart is the backside tackle pulling, and at its base scheme, it’s run to the field side. Their tackles do a nice job of “logging” the EMOL as he spikes inside, allowing the back to bounce wide as opposed to cutting off the puller’s inside hip. Examples.
But the quarterback run game is designed and intentional. They’ll work off their Dart concept with “Bash,” like the Baltimore Ravens run with the back running wide opposite the puller with the QB able to keep it. And in empty sets in “weighty” situations, goal line and third down, alert quarterback draw.
They can add some funky elements to their running game, too. Watch this Triple Option with Allen pitching to the wide receiver at the last second. Gotta stay on your toes.
Other offensive stats. Buffalo is averaging 26.5 points per game, tied-sixth in the NFL this year. They have six games scoring 30 or more points. However, during the five-game winning streak that they’re on, they’re only averaging 24.6 points per game. Compare that to the Steelers, averaging 27 PPG during their three-game streak. Situationally, they are the NFL’s top third-down offense, converting 49.8 percent of the time. They’re sixth in red zone offense, punching it over the goal line 63.2 percent. They can be careless with the football. Their 28 giveaways are tied-23rd, while their +2 turnover ratio is slightly above average.
Bills Pass Game
Of course, led by Allen. He’s completing 66.5 percent of his throws, the second-best mark of his career. But his interception rate sits at 3.1 percent, the second-highest/worst of his career, only behind his tough rookie season. Also, and this is important, he’s been sacked only four percent of the time, the best mark in football by a considerable margin. He’s been sacked only 24 times this season, five of which came in Week One against the New York Jets. Since then, he’s been sacked just once or not at all in 11 of the following 16 games. Pretty impressive.
His top target is WR Stefon Diggs, catching 107 passes for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns. On the surface, looks really good. But he hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week Six. And his numbers have cooled off considerably. Here are notable splits.
Weeks 1-6: 8.2 receptions, 103.3 yards, 0.8 touchdowns
Weeks 7-18: 5.3 receptions, 51.2 yards, 0.3 touchdowns
Numbers basically cut in half. Not sure why but his connection just hasn’t been as strong with Allen. Elsewhere, they like throwing to their tight ends, who have 11 combined touchdowns this season. Pittsburgh, by comparison, has given up seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year, six of which have come since Thanksgiving when Pittsburgh lost their starting inside linebackers.
Rookie Dalton Kincaid is the Bills’ second-leading receiver with 73 receptions for 673 yards and two touchdowns. Not a big-play kind of guy, though used more vertical in recent weeks, but a lot of volume. His 73 receptions are the fourth-most by a rookie tight end in NFL history, only trailing Jeremy Shockey, Keith Jackson, and Detroit rookie Sam LaPorta, who set the record with his 86 grabs in 2023.
Elsewhere, there’s speed. WR Gabe Davis is averaging 16.6 yards per reception with seven touchdowns, but he’s dealing with a PCL sprain that could sap his speed if he plays on Sunday. There’s also Khalil Shakir, who nearly averaged 16 yards per catch and had a big day against the Dolphins, a 6/105/0 performance. RB James Cook also gets involved in the passing game, having 44 receptions for 445 yards and four touchdowns. Ten Bills’ players this season have at least one touchdown. As a team, they have 49 receptions of 20-plus yards. That’s 18th in the league, slightly below average.
Conceptually, their RPO game is obvious and frequent. Alert stack formations and condensed trip sets for bubbles and smoke screens.
While Diggs’ numbers have calmed down, they like changing his alignment and putting him in the slot as No. 2 and No. 3. He’ll sit down with free access, and against the zone, Allen quickly hits him for easy underneath pickups. Examples.
Buffalo will also mess with Diggs in a RB-alignment with the back split out wide.
They also will go max protect on two-man routes and take deep shots. They’ll flood zones with post/wheel combinations, and overall, it’s a system designed to work receivers open and isn’t reliant on receivers winning their 1v1s. Overall, a friendly system for Allen.
To another point, how do you slow down this offense? There’s gotta be a balance of pressure and contain. While Josh is focusing more on the individual side, their guards struggled to win 1v1 in pass protection, and defenses can generate interior pressure. If I’m Pittsburgh, I’m playing Allen a lot like playing Lamar Jackson. Five-man rushes to gunk up escape lanes, create 1v1s for each rusher, and constrict him into the pocket. Interior pressure is the key, and it can be gotten. Cut-up of what I saw on tape.
Defensive tackles have to be disciplined, too. They can’t rush too wide or upfield, or else Allen will run up the middle.
Josh’s Individual Report
It’s Bills week, Steelers fans!
With it comes an AFC Wild Card Round matchup at 1 p.m. at Highmark Stadium in Western New York. Weather conditions should be poor with snow and wind, making it a potentially ugly, low-scoring game, which works in the Steelers’ favor.
But the Bills certainly have the trump card when it comes to offense in the playoff matchup. Star quarterback Josh Allen under interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, a Pittsburgh-area native.
Allen is an alien at the position. He’s big, strong, physical, and can make every single throw in the book. He’s a significant running threat, too, whether that’s on designed runs or when he’s making something happen when the play breaks down.
He’s very much like Ben Roethlisberger, without a doubt.
The arm is his calling card. He can rip throws, fit balls into tight windows, and make some absurd plays on the move. It’s jaw-dropping watching him.
But at the same time, he can also make some very bone-headed mistakes, turning the football over. There’s a reason he leads the NFL in turnovers with 23 but also leads the NFL in touchdowns with 44. You take the good with the bad. More often than not, Allen is great.
It helps that he has quite a group of weapons to work with in the passing game.
Star receiver Stefon Diggs remains one of the best receivers in football. He’s an elite route runner who creates a ton of separation and can carve up defenses consistently. He’ll be arguably the toughest test the Steelers’ secondary has faced this season, right there with Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, and Davante Adams.
Opposite Diggs, the Steelers will have to deal with Gabe Davis again. The last time these two teams faced off in a meaningful game in Week Five of the 2022 season, Davis went off for 171 yards and two touchdowns on three receptions.
He’s a big-play threat who can stretch the field and take advantage of defenses focusing so heavily on Diggs. But he’s also woefully inconsistent. He can go for nearly 200 yards one week and then put up a bunch of goose eggs for a few weeks.
He’s a bit banged up entering the game, too, which could slow him down.
Allen will also lean on young receiver Khalil Shakir, who has come on strong down the stretch. He’s a dynamic weapon out of the slot with great hands and elite speed. The Bills were fortunate to land him in the 2022 NFL Draft in the fifth round, much later than he was expected to go.
He’s been a great fit in Buffalo and is starting to develop great chemistry with Allen.
Veteran Trent Sherfield is a steady presence for the Bills as well. One that Allen goes to in big spots. He’s a YAC threat dating back to his days in Miami and can really catch defenses off guard.
At tight end, the Bills have a two-headed monster in Dawson Knox and rookie Dalton Kincaid.
Kincaid is the big-play threat in the receiving game. He’s given the Bills a serious mismatch as a move tight end and has really taken his game to a new level late in the season, setting the Bills’ rookie record for catches in the process.
The Steelers struggle with tight ends, so Kincaid is one to watch. Good route runner, a great athlete overall, and can stretch the field.
Knox is more of the in-line blocker that helps the Bills run game significantly, but he has a great rapport with Allen and is a tough, durable receiving option over the middle. He’s a bull in a China shop after the catch, too.
In the backfield, since the firing of former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, the Bills have leaned heavily on the run game. They utilized promising young running back James Cook in the second half of the season, leading to his first-ever 1,000-yard season.
He has issues with ball security, which could be a factor in poor conditions on Sunday. But he’s also a dynamic running back, one that can make defenders miss in space but that can also wear defenses down.
The Bills also love utilizing him as a receiving option, as he’s a nightmare for linebackers to cover.
Buffalo will also call on practice squad running back Leonard Fournette in the backfield, which is terrifying. He’s a hammer that thrives in the post-season, as the Steelers know. The Bills also have the likes of Latavius Murray and Ty Johnson in the backfield, giving them an extremely deep group.
But it all runs through Cook.
Up front, the Bills have a very solid offensive line on paper. Here’s how I expect them to line up left to right:
LT — Dion Dawkins
LG — Connor McGovern
C — Mitch Morse
RG — O’Cyrus Torrence
RT — Spencer Brown
Few offensive linemen are playing better in the NFL right now than Dawkins at left tackle. He’s a road-grader in the run game, one that is key to the Bills. He’s also a steady pass protector, one that is key to keeping Allen upright.
That matchup between him and Alex Highsmith for the Steelers will be huge to watch.
Inside, Morse is one of the better centers in football, while Torrence played well down the stretch for the Bills in his rookie season. Brown provides a nasty, physical edge up front for Buffalo.
The group has struggled with penalties in recent weeks though, so keep an eye out for that.
On special teams, the Bills are outstanding.
Kicker Tyler Bass is a steady kicker, one that has a strong leg and converts largely from anywhere on the field. He’s 24-of-29 on the season and is 107-for-126 in his career. Remarkable numbers.
Punter Sam Martin is averaging 45.8 yards per punt on the season, though he’s No. 31 out of 32 punters in the NFL on the season in net average. He tends to outkick his coverage at times, putting his coverage units in a tough spot. Could be a big day for Steelers’ return man Calvin Austin III.
In the return game, Deonte Hardy is coming off of a 96-yard punt return in Week 18 against the Miami Dolphins to turn the game around. He’s an electrifying return man who averaged 12.5 yards per punt return on the season. He’s a dangerous guy when he has the ball in his hands and grass in front of him.
It’ll be a huge test for Pressley Harvin III on Sunday.
Shakir handles the kick return duties and averages just under 20 yards per return. Ty Johnson and Fournette have returned kicks this season as well, so the Bills have options there.
