The 4-3 Pittsburgh Steelers are hosting the 3-4 Tennessee Titans for their next challenge on a short week. Let’s dive into the matchup.
Quarterback is a fascinating topic, with Titans rookie Will Levis coming off a strong NFL debut and starting Thursday. Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett was injured last game, but made strong comments he will play. The offense was stagnant in his first half action, despite a better gameplan that lacked execution last week. The latter must be better in hopes of victory.
Here’s average completed and intended air-yards, along with TD/INT Ratios from week eight:
- The visual gives us a sense of Levis’ strong showing, topping the week eight ranks with 11.5 IAY. He also tied for first in ratio with four TDs and no interceptions, and his 6.8 CAY was also above average (seventh). Hopefully Pittsburgh’s defense can limit big pass plays, which they’ve been susceptible to in 2023.
Both Steelers also ranked in the top five in IAY in the week eight loss. The lack of dot size hammers the ugly side of the coin, with no TDS/INTs from Pickett, while Trubisky had a -1 ratio (one TD/2 INTs).
- Only one passing TD in yet another game, and none in the first half. Would be great to see Pittsburgh get one early. Respect to Pickett’s toughness, and hopefully his accuracy isn’t limited due to the rib injury.
RB Derrick Henry is one of the toughest challenges at the position in the NFL. Here’s rush yards and eight defenders in the box percent (8MIB):
- Henry has seen 8MIB at the highest 43.3 rate in the NFL, one of only two RBs over 40-percent, and still producing the fifth most rushing yards (526, 4.4 YPC). He’s one of seven RBs with 500-plus, despite a bye-week. Very impressive, and challenging for a below average Steelers run defense that’s 23rd in yards allowed. If they stack the box as the rest of the NFL has, it could lead to the big pass plays. Pick your poison, I’d focus on the proven commodity (Henry), hoping Levis comes back to earth.
Steelers Najee Harris has seen 8MIB 20.2-percent (26th), under half of Henry’s number. Context to the more painful results: 313 yards (28th) on 3.7 YPC, including a painful week eight (seven attempts, 13 yards, 1.9 YPA). Jaylen Warren led the team, on only 19 yards (five attempts, 3.8 YPA). Painful, and the o-line/run game needs to be much better to get the offense moving on Thursday.
- WR Deandre Hopkins had a strong week eight, with three of the teams’ four passing touchdowns. His status is huge, questionable but expected to play, and is one of the best players at his position as well. Hopkins has 504 receiving yards (20th) on 49 targets, and interestingly all three of his TDs came last week. Pittsburgh’s defense has been able to limit top WRs, most recently Rams Cooper Kupp, but a tall order without S Minkah Fitzpatrick. Hopefully Hopkins doesn’t go off two weeks in a row.
Here are WRs average cushion (CUS) and separation (SEP):
Calvin Austin III has seen the most cushion in the NFL, with Diontae Johnson close behind (third). They each have below average separation to date, with Johnson’s result surprising (landing close to Allen Robinson II, for example) with evidence of that since his return.
- No WR in the matchup is above the league-mean in separation. Titans Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has the best mark (2.9, 42nd) on 24 targets. Secondary receivers tend to carve the Steelers defense when there’s top end talent like Hopkins, so watch out for him and others such as Treylon Burks, who returned from injury last week.
WR George Pickens lands similarly on the chart to Hopkins, with the former leading the matchup with 53 targets (T-28th), 522 yards (16th), and three touchdowns this season. He’s seen the second least cushion in the NFL, separating fifth least, which adds impressive context to his production and 7.2 YAC that ranks sixth league-wide. The touchdown last week was a prime example of the latter, but was his only catch of the game. Hopefully Pickens blows that total out of the water Thursday night.
- Tight end. Pittsburgh’s group hasn’t provided much, with Pat Freiermuth still on IR, and Pickett not targeting the position overall. Connor Heyward did have six targets last game, but only two from Pickett including a goal-line flip-pass. Hopefully we see more involvement with Pickett and the position room moving forward, namely Heyward.
Titans Chigoziem Okonkwo leads the matchup by far with 31 targets (22nd), for 198 yards (21st), and no touchdowns. He provides good athleticism that could challenge the Steelers linebackers.
Interesting findings when looking at his IAY and expected-YAC in particular (YAE):
- Okonkwo ranks dead last in YAE despite his tools (particularly speed) with 3.3 YAC, while having a slightly above average 6.9 IAY (14th). Hopefully that YAC lid remains on against Pittsburgh’s defense. Pittsburgh’s linebackers will already have their hands full with Henry, and hopefully the group that is coming off a strong game overall (highlighted by Cole Holcomb) will step up again.
Here are o-line PFF grades:
Tennessee is best in each, but uninspiring top grades highlight issues for both units, particularly as pass blockers.
- A familiar name on the top right, former Steeler Chris Hubbard. The RT has already been ruled out for Thursday though. Nicholas Petit-Frere is next up, and lands on the lower left of the chart with a 56.7 RBLK, and 35.4 PBLK. LT Andre Dillard is below the mean in both, (62.3 RBLK, 46.4 PBLK), and is tied for the sixth-most pressures of any o-lineman in 2023. Pittsburgh’s edge rushers will hopefully eat against these tackles that are ranked in the bottom 15 among tackles in PBLK this year.
C Aaron Brewer has the best 77.1 RBLK of the matchup, along with a 52.1 PBLK. Their guards land similar to each other on the chart, with rookie LG Peter Skoronski (68.8 PBLK, 63.8 RBLK) and RG Daniel Brunskill (68.3 PBLK, 65.1 RBLK).
- Thankfully, DL Cameron Heyward was activated off IR, will play after going down in the season opener. Hopefully he leads an above the line performance for Pittsburgh’s d-line, who seem to have the edge particularly as pass rushers.
For Pittsburgh, the only player above the matchup mean is rookie T Broderick Jones (70.1 RBLK, 56.4 PBLK). He’s currently a backup to LT Dan Moore (55.4 RBLK, 28.9 PBLK), who came back from injury very well in week seven, but followed it up with another poor PBLK performance last game (43.6). C Mason Cole also land on the undesirable part of the chart (53.7 RBLK, 31.2 PBLK), and was also poor all-around last week (40.3 PBLK, 37.0 RBLK).
The other three starters land on the top left. LG Isaac Seumalo (64.5 PBLK, 60.6 RBLK) didn’t have his best game to say the least, along with RG James Daniels (59.9 RBLK, 55.6 PBLK). RT Chukwuma Okorafor (61.3 RBLK, 60.4 PBLK) graded best against Jacksonville (71.4 PBLK, 65.7 RBLK), which I thought was very generous, in a game the whole unit took a step back.
- Twists concepts have given Pittsburgh fits, including the play Pickett was injured on last week. It will surely be used in this game, and the line must communicate and execute better. Have to protect Pickett, who is obviously not 100-percent on Thursday, and hopefully moving forward as well. Also hope they get back to stronger execution in the run game, which was improved in week seven.
Defense. Two data points I think are key in the matchup are takeaways and allowed first downs:
- The Steelers rank second in the NFL with 15 takeaways, while Tennessee ties for last with six. Pittsburgh’s defense is also above average in first downs allowed (T-11th), but the Titans hold this critical edge for the matchup in my opinion, ranking third league-wide. Not what you want to see if you’re Pittsburgh’s offense, that is struggling to move the ball. On paper, not good Bob, and hopefully this isn’t a painful truth Thursday night.
