The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) are looking to get a winning streak going following a Week Six victory. They host the (2-4) New York Jets, who are better than that record on paper and on a three-game losing streak. Let’s dive right into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – The big news in Pittsburgh is Russell Wilson likely getting his first start in 2024, and for the black and gold. Considering this, I wanted to link several studies I did to compare him and Justin Fields this offseason on their 2023 seasons, since that was Wilson’s last game action.
2023 Wilson/Fields QB Studies:
2023 Adjusted Completion Percentages
2023 Completed/Intended Air Yards
2023 Explosive And Negative Play Rates
2023 Explosive Play Touchdown Drives
2023 Play-Action Effectiveness
2023 Red Zone Passing Performance
2023 Time-To-Throw Performance
2023 Under Pressure Performance
Yes, this data was from last season, but we see some encouraging things that Wilson can potentially be stronger at, along with what Fields did better with in 2023.
I also wanted to include some data from this season, with Jets QB Aaron Rodgers in mind. Obviously, things haven’t gone according to plan for the team thus far, including a change at head coach. So far, the future Hall of Famer has 217 attempts (fourth), 1,387 yards (tenth), 61.8 completion rate (28th), 6.4 YPA (27th), nine TDs (T-eighth), five interceptions (T-25th) out of 36 qualifying QBs (min. 53 attempts).
Though he isn’t expected to start, this is how Fields compared: 160 attempts (T-18th), 1,106 yards (22nd), 66.3 completion rate (16th), 6.9 YPA (23rd), five TDs (T-25th), one INT (T-second).
Here are 2024 QBs time to throw (TTT) and completion rate above expected (CRAE):
Here we see that Rodgers has one of the quickest releases in the NFL, at 2.6 seconds (fourth). If this continues, it could negate the Steelers pass rush to an extent. But Rodgers has taken 16 sacks in 2024, tied for 29th of the 36 qualifiers. The TTT number tells only a piece of the puzzle, and hopefully Pittsburgh’s defense can capitalize by not allowing him to release the football, which other defenses have been able to do against him.
Rodgers CRAE number being so low is surprising (-6.1), 31st/36 QBs. Compared to his peers, including Fields on the other end of the spectrum (1.7, 10th), points to missed opportunities from Rodgers to his receivers.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Cannot underestimate Rodgers ability though, especially since bringing in WR Davante Adams from the Raiders. The former Packers teammates reconnect in New York, when they were one of the most prolific duos in the pass game. The Steelers were prepping for Adams potentially playing in Las Vegas last week (DNP), but couldn’t dodge the bullet of facing him.
Adams played the first three weeks of 2024, posting these numbers: 27 targets, 18 catches, 209 yards, and one TD. This was with lesser talent with the Raiders though.
Let’s look at average intended air yards (IAY) and catch percentages (CAT) for the position, and how the new scary NY trio have fared:
Adams still has the better numbers (slightly) of primary New York WRs. All three have a below the mean of 85 WRs (min. 18 targets) in IAY: Adams (10.2, 46th), Allen Lazard (10.0, 49th), and Garrett Wilson (7.9, 66th). The latter has been the Jets WR1, the most targeted NFL WR to date (67). 41 catches (2nd), 399 yards (12th), and three TDs (9th). 61.2 catch rate (53rd) though, with Adams (66.7, T-34th) and Lazard (65.0, T-40th) better in that regard.
George Pickens is Pittsburgh’s only qualifier, one of only two NFL teams to have just one WR with 18 targets. He now has 26 catches (T-20th) on 44 targets (17th) for 363 yards (18th) but NO TDs still. Would be great to see Russell Wilson deliver that gift, and perhaps get others more involved. The visual highlights Pickens as the only WR in the matchup with above average IAY (12.4, 31st), but the worst catch rate (59.1, 62nd).
The trendline emphasizes this expectation though, with more yardage comes less connection, and Pickens is right on that line. If not for multiple uncharacteristic drops the past few games, that would be much more encouraging. Here’s to hoping that cleans up.
RUNNING BACKS – It’s a potent running game on paper for the Jets, spearheaded by RB Breece Hall. As a team, they are 29th with 523 rushing yards, with some game circumstances getting away from the ground attack along with some struggles.
Hall is coming off his best 2024 outing as a rusher with 113 yards though, and now has 83 attempts (11th), 310 yards (21st), 3.7 YPA (37th), and two TDs (T-21st) on the season (51 qualifiers, min. 35 attempts). Braelon Allen is a thumper with 35 attempts (51st), 151 yards (44th), 4.3 YPA (26th), and a touchdown (T-30th).
Like Hall, Najee Harris also posted his best game of 2024 last week, with 106 yards and first 100-yard days for each. Harris now has 96 attempts (5th), 376 yards (10th), 3.9 YPA (33rd), and one touchdown (T-30th) on last week’s fantastic 36-yard effort.
To add context to the lead backs strong games they’re coming off of, here are RBs with at least 30 rushing yards over expected in Week Six:
Harris had the second-best 62.9 RYOE number last week, one of only two players above 60. His rare to date two explosive runs are the primary factor, including the aforementioned 36-yard TD and a 26 yarder. Also, season-highs in missed tackles forced (7) and four ten-plus runs were also great contributions we see continue.
Hall ranked sixth of Week Six, at 30.3. He had a long double-explosive run of 42 yards, along with matching Harris at four 10-plus runs, also his best of 2024. Just one missed tackle forced for Hall, the most he’s had in a game since the opener, when he had a whopping six of them. Both backs are also legit pass game threats as well.
Both of them will be high on their opposition’s radar. Hopefully Pittsburgh can play to their identity and have the better rushing day, playing keep away from New York’s offense, but their defense is stout and will look to make that extremely difficult.
DEFENSES – NY has a strong unit overall, top ten in many regards. EDGE Will McDonald IV and Quinnen Williams on the DL, C.J. Mosely and good LBs, and a strong secondary including CB Sauce Gardner but are dealing with some injuries.
Let’s look at pass and run expected points added (EPA) for defenses through Week Six:
The visual illustrates these good defenses have had clear strong suits. The Jets are one of the better 2024 pass defenses, ranking fifth in pass EPA. The better thing to see in Steelers lenses is a below average rush EPA that ranks 19th. Knock on wood that plays out for another strong rushing day for Harris and company.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been quite opposite from New York, with the second-best run EPA. The Steelers have allowed just 3.7 YPA (T-third), and one of only three teams to allow only one rushing TD. Keeping that going will be key. The concern for Pittsburgh is a more average pass defense EPA (16th), and face a very challenging passing unit. Fingers crossed.
TIGHT ENDS – The Jets also have a key contributor at the position in Tyler Conklin (questionable-hip, full participant Friday). He has 30 targets (T-9th), 19 catches (T-12th), 191 yards (16th), and no TDs (T-13th) out of 24 qualifying TEs (min. 18 targets). In comparison, Steeler Pat Freiermuth has 26 targets (T-16th), 22 catches (8th), 196 yards (15th), and thankfully two TDs (T-5th).
Freiermuth has been well above league average in these stats. His 84.6 catch rate is stellar at second-best, along with a 1.4 AYAE that ranks sixth. 4.4 YAC could be better (17th), though just 3.0 was expected. This means Freiermuth is one of the surest handed TEs in the NFL, and creating more yards than expected once the ball’s in his hands. Hopefully Pittsburgh has a nice YAC game, scheming playmakers open well, including Freiermuth.
Conklin has also created an above average 0.7 AYAE (9th), but a stronger 6.1 YAC number (8th) versus 5.4 expected (9th). This could be an issue in this game, with all the attention Pittsburgh’s defense will likely give their WR corps. Calling LB Patrick Queen and company, with the position needing to have a nice day in hopes of victory.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Last but not least, o-lines are obviously key to any matchup.
Here are PFF blocking grades:
Clearly the best-balance of grades are New York, with four starters above the mean in the run and pass game. Pittsburgh has four also, but only two are set to start, sadly with big losses to a decimated position in G James Daniels and then more recently rookie C Zach Frazier.
Here’s how Pittsburgh’s OL should look:
LT Dan Moore Jr. (390 snaps): 65.8 RBLK (40th/94), 72.6 PBLK (32nd).
LG Isaac Seumalo (116 snaps): 76.6 RBLK (11th/92), 46.4 PBLK (77th).
C Ryan McCollum (20 snaps): 51.9 RBLK (43rd/48th), 77.8 PBLK (5th).
RG Mason McCormick (220 snaps): 64.4 RBLK (45th/92), 64.0 PBLK (43rd).
RT Broderick Jones (343 snaps): 54.8 RBLK (71st/94), 41.7 PBLK (83rd).
The snap counts illustrate the musical chairs Pittsburgh has had to play. The interior in particular, including McCollum set to make his first regular season start for Pittsburgh. His last such appearance was Week 14 of the 2021 season with Detroit, so how he fares is paramount.
While the sample on McCollum is small, there’s a big drop-off in RBLK from Frazier (84.1 to 51.9), and faces a tough task in Williams. McCormick and Seumalo will play a major factor in that as well, and hopefully McCollum can trend towards their run blocking contributions. Seumalo has also struggled in PBLK (46.4), and the group will need to have a good day protecting a less mobile Wilson at quarterback.
The tackle position is of course key in that as well. Moore has been much better this season overall, including respectable PBLK compared to being among the worst tackles in that regard in 2023. The other side has, and will be the bigger concern in this one. Jones has allowed five sacks, tied for second-most among tackles. He’ll matchup against McDonald primarily, who ties for second in sacks in 2024 with seven.
These are the expected Jets starters:
LT Tyron Smith (390 snaps): 69.3 RBLK (31st/94), 70.3 PBLK (40th).
LG John Simpson (390 snaps): 74.0 RBLK (16th/92), 77.8 PBLK (8th).
C Joe Tippmann (390 snaps): 76.8 RBLK (8th/48th), 67.0 PBLK (19th).
RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (390 snaps): 67.3 RBLK (36th/92), 80.0 PBLK (5th).
RT Morgan Moses (231 snaps): 62.2 RBLK (54th/94), 63.5 PBLK (60th).
Better grades and health overall. This includes top 20 PBLK ranks from their entire interior. Pittsburgh’s DL will need to have a solid day, hopefully Cam Heyward and company able to make Rodgers uncomfortable. Star EDGE T.J. Watt’s matchup against Moses thankfully leans to Pittsburgh’s favor, and has had strong games against him. Last time (when Moses played in Baltimore in 2023), Watt was great overall including two sacks.
Though the Steelers have lost many players to injury, a piece of great news is EDGE Alex Highsmith is set to return from his groin injury. The position has been decimated, and having his strong presence back will be fantastic. Hopefully has a big day against a solid tackle, along with not allowing New York to send as much attention to Watt.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
