The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Baltimore to face their division rivals, who are on a tear and playing great football. Pittsburgh has spiraled, losing their last four games against quality opponents including the Ravens in Week 16 (34-17), obviously looking for a better outcome in their third meeting.
Here are my stat outlooks for the prior two games in hopes of righting the ship.
Let’s dive in.
QUARTERBACKS – QB Lamar Jackson is at the top of the huge challenges Baltimore presents. He set impressive passing stat-lines this season, and here’s that along with his numbers in the Steelers matchups:
JACKSON
2024: 474 attempts (16th/40, min. 200 dropbacks), 4,172 pass yards (sixth), 41 TDs (T-second), four INTs (T-third).
Week 11: 33 attempts (T-11th), 207 yards (21st), 1 TD, 1 INT.
Week 16: 23 attempts (30th), 207 yards (22nd), 3 TD, 1 INT.
Far fewer attempts for the same number of yards and triple the touchdowns in their Week 16 victory, compared to the Steelers coming out on top in Week 11. Another big difference was completion percentage, with a lowly 48.5-percent mark the first matchup, 65.2-percent in Week 16, and 66.7-percent on the year (12th).
Here is the average completed and intended air yards, which stand out from Week 16:
Jackson achieved great results in these terms, with a whopping 9.6 CAY that was best of Week 16, and a 9.8 IAY that was third-most. His air yard differential also was tops of the week, meaning he was attacking down the field with overall success.
In comparison, Steelers QB Russell Wilson had a 6.7 CAY (fifth), and 7.3 IAY (14th). Not bad either, and here was his stat-line: 33 attempts (19th), 217 yards (19th), 2 TD, 1 INT. Has been enough in the past, but not when Jackson posts his best performance to date on his division rival.
Wilson did even less in the Week 11 win: 23 completions, 205 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. So, Wilson can clearly play better, but the Steelers really need to step up and play complimentary football. That will likely be needed against Baltimore’s offense and a defense that’s playing better, as my recent articles illustrate:
2024 regular season explosive plays
Also wanted to include my passing charts articles for the Ravens matchups:
Steelers passing charts Week 11
Steelers passing charts Week 16
A huge part of Baltimore’s identity is the run game, on both sides of the ball. Jackson led QBs with 915 rushing yards, and 20th league-wide, better than several running backs. Here’s his rushing against Pittsburgh:
Week 11: 46 rush yards (fifth among QBs).
Week 16: 22 rush yards (20th).
Considering the Ravens had 220 team rushing yards in their Week 16 win, compared to 124 in Week 11, we see the latter wasn’t at the hand of Jackson.
RUNNING BACKS – The big difference was Derrick Henry:
Week 11: 13 attempts, 65 rush yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble turnover.
Week 16: 24 attempts, 162 yards, 0 TD, 0 FUM.
Far more attempts and more than doubling his yardage last meeting. Impactful despite no rush touchdowns, but the big story of Week 11 was a rare fumble turnover that Pittsburgh got on him early. Baltimore learned their lesson and will surely lean on him again.
The Steelers defense performing closer to their first matchup will obviously be key on one of the best RBs in the league:
2024: Henry – 325 attempts (second), 1,921 yards (second), 16 TDs (T-first).
Forcing missed tackles, and picking up first downs was another highlight of Henry’s Week 16:
Henry led the week with most missed tackles forced and tied for second in first downs. These were big reasons that Baltimore won, re-emphasizing my complementary football comment earlier and what Pittsburgh’s defense must do better.
Steelers S DeShon Elliott is one of the best tacklers for Pittsburgh and didn’t play in the last matchup. That is huge, and it must be a stronger team effort and one of the biggest keys in hopeful victory.
They also have a second-ranked rushing success rate, aiding their ability to extend drives, and plays well to their strong situational football on offense: third down (third) and NFL’s best red zone touchdown rate. Big reasons why they’re successful, and a declining Steelers run defense (29th post-bye) must step up to earlier in 2024, when they were a top three unit.
Steelers RB Stats:
Harris – 2024: 263 attempts (7th), 1,043 yards (14th), 6 TDs (T-22nd). Week 11: 18 attempts, 63 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 9 attempts, 42 yards, 0 TDs.
Warren – 2024: 120 attempts, 511 yards, 1 TD. Week 11: 9 attempts, 41 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 12 attempts, 48 yards, 0 TDs, 1 FUM.
We see that Harris was top 10 in carries and led opportunities in Week 11, with that flipping in the last meeting. It will be interesting to see the splits in this game, as Warren has gotten more opportunity in recent weeks, but less so last game.
Baltimore limited the run game to 117 yards in Week 16 and 122 in Week 11. Last game, Warren had six forced missed tackles and four first downs despite the Ravens strong unit, but they rallied and corralled yardage overall. He also had a fumble, thankfully retained. Wilson had one that was not, leading to a Ravens TD drive.
Taking care of the ball is paramount to Pittsburgh’s success. They’ve on the right side of the turnover margin for the year, but being cleaner on offense would aid a more dominant spread to hopefully capitalize on more than Week 16.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously key to any matchup.
Here are PFF blocking grades for Week 16:
Overall, players fared best in run blocking. Particularly Baltimore, with some good pass blocking as Steeler G Isaac Seumalo led those grades. G Mason McCormick had the lowest individual grade, an abysmal 16.6 PBLK.
Allowed five pressures, three hurries, and two sacks. He’s questionable after suffering a broken hand. Who plays RG, likely Spencer Anderson if McCormick can’t go, and a strong collective day from the unit would be great to see after trending negatively to end 2024.
Ravens OL:
LT Ronnie Stanley: 43.6 RBLK (65th/69), 52.4 PBLK (49th)
LG Patrick Mekari: 45.2 RBLK (55th/60), 74.0 PBLK (24th)
C Tyler Linderbaum: 74.9 RBLK (7th/32), 57.0 PBLK (20th)
RG Daniel Faalele: 66.3 RBLK (26th/60), 55.0 PBLK (44th)
RT Roger Rosengarten: 75.5 RBLK (12th/69), 68.9 PBLK (33rd)
The left side of their line were worse as run blockers, along with Steelers EDGE Alex Highsmith giving Stanley fits with a team-high five pressures, four hurries, and their lone sack. Emphasizes his big game, and hopefully the d-line show out more, particularly star T.J. Watt who has been limited (to his standards) in both regular season matchups.
Rosengarten deserves credit, along with the help he gets. Hoping Watt is saving the best for last, hungry to get his first playoff win. Linderbaum was solid run blocking on the interior, while the rest of the grades were average to below. Really need more playmaking, hopefully via sacks and turnovers.
Steelers expected OL:
LT Dan Moore: 59.1 RBLK (50th/69), 65.6 PBLK (37th)
LG Isaac Seumalo: 69.6 RBLK (20th/60), 81.9 PBLK (10th)
C Zach Frazier: 68.1 RBLK (11th/32), 63.7 PBLK (17th)
RG Mason McCormick (questionable-hand): 68.3 RBLK (22nd/60), 16.6 PBLK (57th)
RT Broderick Jones: 51.9 RBLK (60th/69), 65.1 PBLK (38th)
Frazier tops the run block grades, as he’s done most of the year. The guards graded well, but we see the main run block woes came from the tackles. They did have better pass block grades, but Jones allowed two sacks, and Moore has allowed two sacks in each of the last two games. Nice interior PBLK marks, with the clear exception being McCormick, and if he goes seeing if that corrects or if the injury affects his play.
TIGHT ENDS – Baltimore has two scary talents in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. They had good seasons, and here are their stats:
Andrews – 2024: 69 targets (17th), 55 catches (14th), 673 yards (9th), 11 TDs (1st). Week 11: 3 targets, 2 catches, 22 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 6 targets, 4 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD.
Likely – 2024: 56 targets (27th), 42 catches (T-27th), 477 yards (23rd), 6 TDs (8th). Week 11: 5 targets, 4 catches, 75 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 3 targets, 3 catches, 29 yards, 1 TD.
Touchdowns really stick out, with two TEs in the top 10, and Andrews leading the NFL this season. Pittsburgh learned that painful lesson, dealing with miscommunications and allowing a TD each to them. Wide open at that,and simply can’t happen again. How the defense adjusts/executes is crucial.
Steeler Pat Freiermuth: 2024: 74 targets (14th), 65 catches (T-8th), 653 yards (12th), 7 TDs (T-fourth). Week 11: 2 targets, 2 catches, 14 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 3 targets, 3 catches, 16 yards, 0 TD.
Unfortunately, stale in comparison in the previous matchups. Really hoping for quality and quantity from him, as teams have been zone-scheming the favorite moon ball away from Wilson.
This included the finale, when Freiermuth had 10 targets for 85 yards (season-highs), and a TD. He will surely want to shun his last target, a fourth down drop that ended Pittsburgh’s last defeat. It was largely short targets too, and hoping for a strong scheme to make the passing attack more varied than we’ve seen. Defenses have figured you out in your four-game losing streak.
Couple things that stood out from Week 16 were slot rates and average depth of target (ADOT):
First off, we see that all three primary TEs (min. three targets) had above average slot snaps last matchup. What also jumps ADOT, with Ravens targeted more downfield than Freiermuth. He aligned in the slot for 73.3 of passing snaps, most of Week 16, but had a low 5.0 ADOT (T-15th/27 qualifiers), largely out routes.
Andrews had the longest 12.5 ADOT of the week, as Likely was sixth-most at 7.7, and ranked second and ninth in slot rate. While Pittsburgh limited their total yards last time, we see some more of the challenges they present the Steelers defense, and friendlier usage for production than how Freiermuth has been used.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Zay Flowers, their leading receiver in 2024, is out for the contest which is obviously huge. He dominated the Week 16 with 8 targets and five catches. Just one other receiver was targeted, Rashod Bateman, who had three and just one catch.
They will no doubt need him to step up, along with the rest of the room in Flowers absence, as well as lean on their TEs even more.
Baltimore 2024 Targets:
Flowers: 112 (21st). Bateman: 67 (T-59th). Nelson Agholor (28), Tylan Wallace (12).
Really illustrates this, and here’s Pittsburgh’s while I’m at it.
Pittsburgh 2024 Targets:
George Pickens: 100 (T-30th), Calvin Austin 56 (T-73rd), Van Jefferson 40, Mike Williams 34. The latter saw more targets in the loaded Jets room the first nine weeks, with just 13 since becoming a Steeler. Well underutilized, and hoping he gets more involved Saturday night.
Here are stats for the Steelers WRs in Ravens matchups:
Pickens – Week 11: 12 targets, 8 catches, 89 yards, 0 TD. Week 16: NONE (injured).
Austin – Week 11: 2 targets, 1 catch, -1 yard, 0 TD. Week 16: 5 targets, 4 catches, 65 yards, 0 TD.
Jefferson – Week 11: 1 target, 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 TD. Week 16: 3 targets, 2 catches, 27 yards, 0 TD.
Williams – NONE. Week 16: 3 targets, 3 catches, 24 yards, 0 TD.
Pickens being out last matchup was obviously a huge loss for Pittsburgh. Needs to provide a similar impact to his Week 11 outing, or better hopefully, and have to vary his targeted areas more than primary deep shots that defenses have squandered recently, including Baltimore.
When they do, Pickens presence will knock on wood aid a better day, and the others usage will be interesting to monitor. Pittsburgh also had four drops in the finale, namely from Pickens, another head-scratcher from that loss.
Here are WRs yards per catch and route run from Week 16:
Flowers usage down the field will surely be missed along with his volume, with 20.0 YPC (T-ninth) and 4.17 per route run (fifth) against Pittsburgh last game. In comparison, Bateman’s 0.67 yards per route run was completely different, 68th/75 qualifying WRs. While above the mean in YPC, he caught just one of his three targets at 14 yards.
Without Flowers, Pittsburgh should bey able to key in more on the rest of their roster, but don’t underestimate them either.
Austin had above the line marks in each, 16.3 YPR (T-24th), and 2.24 YPRR (24th) in Pickens absence. For context, Austin averaged 15.2 in the regular season, compared to Pickens similar 15.3 number. Hope they use him to stretch the back end of the defense more, and better YAC than we’ve seen from him and the team.
Jefferson did have an above average 13.5 YPC, namely on a 21-yard explosive catch which isn’t typically his game. Jefferson and Williams average route run ranked 50th and 68th out of 85 WRs. Again, more variance in route running please.
DEFENSE –
Pass/Rush (season ranks), weekly yardage:
Pass Yards: Pittsburgh (25th), 207, 207. Baltimore (31st), 205, 217.
Rush Yards: Ravens (1st), 122, 117. Steelers (6th), 124, 220.
We see both teams were better in terms of rush yards allowed, though it has waned tremendously in the back half of the year for Pittsburgh, including the Week 16 Baltimore game. It was key to their victory and needs to be better on both sides of the ball.
Situational (season ranks), weekly numbers:
Third down: PIT (2nd) – Week 11: 4-of-11 Week 16: 4-of-10. BAL (T-17th) – Week 11: 4-of-16, Week 16: 4-of-10.
Fourth down: BAL (3rd) – Week 11: 0-for-1, Week 16: 0-of-1. Steelers (29th) – Week 11: N/A, Week 16: N/A.
Red zone: BAL (12th) – Week 11: 0-for-4, Week 16: 2-of-2. PIT (14th) – Week 11: 2-for-2, Week 16: 3-of-5.
An encouraging element to Pittsburgh’s defense still is limiting third down conversions, including their Ravens matchups. A downside is Baltimore’s overall success on offense, often times avoiding the down altogether, which occurred particularly in their Week 16 win. The more third and longs, the better. Baltimore’s defense was average overall in 2024, but improvements from the unit includes third downs and limiting Pittsburgh’s rushing.
The Ravens have also been a stingy fourth down defense, third in the NFL, and stopped each attempt in the previous matchups on Pittsburgh’s offense. The Steelers also had a fourth down fail end the game for them in their loss in the finale. In fact, they ranked 31st in fourth down conversions in 2024, and the Steelers defense ranks 29th. BARF.
Another factor in why I’d like to see a faster start, along with keeping up on the scoreboard. Red zone looked better for both offenses. Big in how the two matchups transpired, namely Pittsburgh’s struggling red zone offense shut out, but overcame that with victory. Converted both trips in Week 16, but not enough opportunity to keep up.
The Steelers defense has allowed multiple red zone TDs each matchup, perfect rate allowed in Week 11, along with a discouraging uptick to 3-of-5 last time the teams met. How the red zone goes down is obviously huge to the outcome. Many factors play into this, and the best complement of several topics today will likely win.
To close, here’s a visual of defenses pass and run EPA (measures overall scoring impact) in Week 16:
Pass Defense EPA: 2024: BAL (9th), PIT (13th). Week 11: BAL (2nd). PIT (4th). Week 16: BAL (4th), PIT (30th)
Run Defense EPA: 2024: BAL (5th), PIT (16th). Week 11: BAL (12th). PIT (22nd). Week 16: BAL (17th), PIT (20th)
The Ravens defense ranked best in every single aspect. Top ten on the season in both pass and run EPA, including Pittsburgh matchups, largely with top ten ranks. Not what you want to see with how much the Steelers are aiming to fix on offense. Less so in run defense, but have been able to limit Pittsburgh well overall.
Also bad news is Pittsburgh’s 22nd and 28th run defense EPA against Baltimore and the pass defense falling off a cliff last game to 30th in the embarrassing Week 16 beatdown (34-17). That wasn’t too long ago, and Pittsburgh being unable to right the ship in two games since has most predicting an early Steelers exit.
The stats make that hard to argue, but anything can happen on a weekly basis. Pittsburgh has several things to improve and must do so for hopeful victory, or it could extend the playoff win drought (since 2016). What a great feeling that would be, but Baltimore will certainly have something to say about that.
Here’s to hoping for a Steelers squad that looks much better than the last month.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Ravens
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
