The 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers are set to face the 9-5 Baltimore Ravens. These are always critical matchups, and the Steelers would claim the divisional title with a win. My AFC North data points though Week 15 highlight several key statistical areas that are strengths or weaknesses for each team. With these matchups always close slugfests that transpire differently, today’s focus will be on how the first Week 11 matchup went down.
Let’s dive in.
QUARTERBACKS – Of all the tough challenges Baltimore presents, it all starts with Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh is familiar with the tall task, including a great job on him in the 18-16 Week 11 win.
Jackson went 16/33, 48.5 completion rate (season-low), 207 yards, 1 TD/1 INT (Payton Wilson). He was sacked twice (T.J. Watt, Dean Lowry), along with most batted passes on Jackson this season with three (Cam Heyward – 2, Lowry). The latter, and lack of connection stand out, compared to 68.1 in 2024 (10th).
Here’s average time to throw and completion percent above expected, which stand out from Week 11:
First, Jackson had the longest time to throw of QBs (min. 15 attempts) in Week 11. While several things went well for Pittsburgh’s defense in the first matchup, disrupting him earlier and more often is high on my hopes. They were able to get three hits on him, most on Jackson in 2024. Another encouraging factor to this hope is Steelers EDGE Alex Highsmith didn’t play, and he will in the rematch.
Even though there was potential for more pressure, Jackson had the worst -13.8 completion percent above expected that week. Credit to Pittsburgh’s defense, but there were also missed opportunities by Jackson considering the stat factors receiver separation, location on the field, separation from nearest pass rusher, and more. He will no doubt be looking to rectify that, and Pittsburgh will hopefully be even sharper.
In comparison, Steelers QB Russell Wilson had a more average time to throw but was also below average with a minus-2.2 completion percent above expected. Here was his stat-line: 23/36 (63.9-percent), 205 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT. While there was better connection, clearly not his best game, his only of 2024 with no passing touchdowns and a negative TD/INT ratio. Here’s my Week 11 passing charts for far more details.
Explosive passing is his specialty, but he was limited in the matchup (1/4 at 20 air yards or more). This is a big concern considering that Baltimore’s defense is noticeably improving since then. Other offensive issues for the Steelers were 4-of-17 on third down (23.5-percent), 0-4 in red zone TDs including his INT, and three receiver drops (Najee Harris, Van Jefferson, George Pickens). Big keys to clean up.
RUNNING BACKS – Derrick Henry remains the king, one of the best RBs in the NFL, and has only gotten better with time in Baltimore. Pittsburgh has had the recipe for stopping him, though. His 65 yards in Week 11 are deceiving, considering an early forced fumble (Nick Herbig) was a huge turnover, not coughing it up on 538 prior touches.
They went away from him, with only 13 attempts in the game, and highly doubt it will transpire the same way on Saturday. Their rushers had good days, highlighted by yards per attempt: Jackson (11.5, 46 yards), Justice Hill (6.5, 13 yards), Henry (5.0). The latter also had a red zone TD, and explosive 31-yard run.
Here’s eight men in the box and efficiency (measures north/south runners):
Here we see Henry was very north/south, the highest efficiency of RBs (min. 10 attempts) of Week 11. That has also been true on the season (third), in the same vein as another top rusher in Saquon Barkly (first), whom Pittsburgh just faced. While it was above average, the Steelers committed eight men to the box on just 23.1 percent of his runs. Expect that to be more as he will likely be more involved this go round.
In comparison, Baltimore had eight men in the box on 33.3 percent (sixth-most) of Steeler Najee Harris’ attempts (18), and had below average efficiency (19th/27). Much more deliberate scheme and running style for Henry than Harris, with the latter getting 63 yards on a 3.5 average.
Jaylen Warren had the better yards per carry (4.6) on nine carries for 41 yards, and QB Justin Fields had two for 17 yards (8.5 average). The latter has been ruled out (abdominal), so not an option for Pittsburgh to sprinkle in. Short yardage approach will be interesting to monitor. Hopefully Harris fares better, with poor 2024 Steelers rushing success rates, and the Steelers chess game (or lack thereof) after insane non-adjustments last game.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Another reason the Ravens will likely try to lean on the run game more is availability at WR. Top receiver Zay Flowers is good to go, but namely Rashod Bateman, who’s trending upward is questionable and Nelson Agholor is ruled out.
Here’s how their receiving stats played out:
Flowers – 6 targets, 2 catches, 39 yards, 1 TD.
Bateman – 3 targets, 2 catches, 30 yards.
Johnson – 2 targets, 0 catches.
Tylan Wallace – 1 target, 1 catch, 8 yards.
Agholor – 1 target, 0 catches.
Pittsburgh deserves praise for how they limited their wide receivers, including Flowers. CB. Joey Porter Jr. had a nice game limiting Flowers overall. Hopefully that reoccurs to sure up a rough team pass defense outing against Philly last game, allowing two 100-yard receivers. Flowers had a touchdown in the red zone in the final two minutes on CB Donte Jackson. Thankfully the two-point attempt failed, resulting in the 18-16 Steeler victory.
Here’s Pittsburgh WR data for comparison:
George Pickens – 12 targets, 8 catches, 89 yards.
Calvin Austin – 2 targets, 1 catch, minus-1 yard.
Ben Skowronek – 1 target, 1 catch, four yards.
Van Jefferson – 1 target, no catches.
Holy Pickens. He will miss his third straight-game unfortunately (hamstring). Everyone knows his impact has and will be missed, and his dominant volume against Baltimore (season-high) is a less discussed factor that gives specific context to just how much. Wilson is skilled at distributing across his eligibles, but the quality on the other end needs to be better than we’ve seen since Week 14.
Drop rates and yards after catch jump out from last matchup:
Pittsburgh had two drops from WRs, Jefferson on his lone target, and one from Pickens. The collective that is trying to step up in his absence should aim for sure handedness, as opposed to how things went in the first matchup with three team drops.
No Steelers WRs had above average YAC in Week 11: Pickens (3.4), Austin (1.0), Skowronek (0.0). This is huge in my opinion, particularly without Pickens, and how most of the group including Scotty Miller will likely be successful as non-deep threats (particularly in comparison) and Baltimore’s explosive pass defense improvements. Mike Williams is the closest to that skillset. Can we get him involved please?
Flowers had clear drop issues, at a 33.3 rate that was tied for fifth-most in Week 11. Only game since Week 5, so not an overall weakness, and a factor that bounced Pittsburgh’s way against him. The flipside was good YAC from Flowers, at 10.0 which ranked 16th/103 WRs. Despite this coming on one of his catches, he also has a nice 6.3 YAC in 2024, and Pittsburgh is coming off a tough missed tackle game last week.
Wallace was also above the mean on his catch and may have an increased role with a 12.3 season number. Padded by a quadruple explosive 88-yard touchdown in Week 10 breaking a tackle. So, that scary ability is there, and hopefully Pittsburgh sures up that recent issue against good YAC receivers.
TIGHT ENDS – Baltimore has two scary talents in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Pittsburgh focused their attention on the former.
Ravens stats:
Andrews – 3 targets, 2 catches, 22 yards.
Likely – 5 targets, 4 catches, 75 yards.
Here’s YAC, along with average depth of target:
Right away, we see that Likely’s good game also featured YAC, and on more volume than their WRs. His 11.0 average ranked third-most in Week 11, while also landing above the mean in average depth of target (10.4, 10th/57). Andrews also had a healthy 12.0 ADOT that ranked fifth, both were higher than season averages, and expect the same considering missing piece(s) at WR.
Steeler Darnell Washington had a nice game the first outing, including intermediate over the middle usage. 11.7 ADOT was encouraging, sixth-most right behind Andrews, and had 8.5 YAC (seventh). Hopefully he can have similar success.
Speaking of which, it was a quiet game for Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth. Here are their receiving numbers:
Washington – 3 targets, 2 catches, 42 yards.
Freiermuth – 2 targets, 2 catches, 14 yards.
That’s Freiermuth’s lowest stat line since, so hoping and expecting for him to make noise in the rematch, considering that and sans Pickens. Room for more will optimistically come in the stats I visualized: 3.5 ADOT (38th) and 2.0 ADOT (T-42nd).
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously key to any matchup.
Here are PFF blocking grades for Week 11:
Pittsburgh had the better grades, with the interior line as the only players above the mean in both Week 11. This featured the better RBLK grades, while pass blocking was more even.
Ravens expected OL:
LT Ronnie Stanley: 49.2 RBLK (32nd/38), 71.0 PBLK (17th).
LG Patrick Mekari: 58.0 RBLK (24th/41), 78.4 PBLK (10th).
C Tyler Linderbaum: 55.9 RBLK (16th/20), 42.5 PBLK (18th).
RG Daniel Faalele (questionable-knee): 70.2 RBLK (9th/41), 59.2 PBLK (27th).
RT Roger Rosengarten: 29.2 RBLK (38th/38), 77.1 PBLK (13th).
Here’s to hoping Pittsburgh has another good day in run defense, as the grades and ranks by position emphasize. This included Heyward, LB Elandon Roberts, and S DeShon Elliott to name a few, but unfortunately the latter has been ruled out as a big loss. That will certainly impact both the run and pass game.
Some good PBLK, including their tackles and Mekari. Heyward and Herbig led the team in pressures (four), and Watt had three. Of course hoping for a more dominant game from the latter, who thankfully looks set to play following an ankle injury last game. His effectiveness will obviously be huge, and hope others step up admirably regardless, including Highsmith who was unavailable to injury the first matchup.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore: 49.8 RBLK (31st/38), 58.4 PBLK (31st).
LG Isaac Seumalo: 80.8 RBLK (5th/41), 78.0 PBLK (11th).
C Zach Frazier: 68.8 RBLK (8th/20), 73.6 PBLK (7th).
RG Mason McCormick: 69.2 RBLK (10th/41), 73.6 PBLK (16th).
RT Broderick Jones: 61.8 RBLK (20th/38), 58.6 PBLK (30th).
Knock on wood the interior line has another good day, but the flipside was Pittsburgh’s tackles. Moore allowed two sacks and three pressures, while Jones allowed a team-high four pressures and a sack. EDGE Odafe Oweh led Baltimore with five pressures and two sacks, primarily playing on Moore’s side, but flipped as well. He’s questionable (ankle), so his status is big. EDGE Kyle Van Noy also applied pressure (four), all on Jones’ side.
Not ideal RBLK for Pittsburgh at tackle either, particularly Moore. Looking for him to have a balanced game more similar to his overall improvements in 2024. Here’s to hoping for the best-balanced performance from the unit, with the vital trench battles big in any game, and of course AFC North slugfests.
DEFENSE – These games tend to be close, low scoring, and competitive affairs. The that limits the opposition and makes splash plays usually come out the victor. Thankfully, that advantage clearly goes to Pittsburgh this season, as the NFL’s top defense in takeaways, while Baltimore is tied for 25th. The Steelers also won the turnover battle 3-to-1 in Week 11, and one of the biggest keys to the hopeful season sweep and AFC North title.
Pass/Rush (season ranks), Week 11 yardage:
Pass Yards: Pittsburgh (22nd), 207. Baltimore (31st), 205.
Rush Yards: Ravens (1st), 122. Steelers (4th), 124.
Eerily similar yardage allowed by both defenses Week 11. Looking at season ranks, it appears both pass defenses can be thrown on. Baltimore’s next to last rank is trending up though, while Pittsburgh’s has fallen, particularly against last weeks talented Eagles offense. The Ravens have the third-most passing yards on offense, but Pittsburgh has had their number more than most, W’s the last eight contests. Keep it rolling with this big one.
Situational (season ranks), Week 11 numbers:
Third down: Steelers (7th) – 4-for-11. Ravens (23rd) – 4-for-16.
Fourth down: Ravens (9th) – 0-for-1. Steelers (T-28th) – N/A.
Red zone: Steelers (14th) – 2-for-2. Ravens (16th) – 0-for-4.
Any given Sunday, with these matchups usually outliers to season marks. Both defenses were great on third down, along with Baltimore shutting down Pittsburgh’s offense on their lone fourth down attempt. Red zone could have been detrimental to a Steelers loss, allowing Baltimore TDs on both their offensive red zone trips, while unable to get any on four attempts as an offense. High on the radar for improvement on both sides of the ball.
To close, here’s a visual of defenses pass and run EPA (measures overall scoring impact) in Week 11:
Week 11 Pass Defense EPA: Baltimore (2nd). Pittsburgh (4th).
Week 11 Run Defense EPA: Ravens (12th). Steelers (22nd).
Strong top five pass defenses jump out positively for both teams, while the Ravens had the clear advantage on the ground. While Pittsburgh’s defense did good things on their top yards per attempt rushing offense this season, keeping Jackson and Henry bottled up, and particularly out of the end zone could be even better. Litmus test to prove whether they are truly one of the NFL’s best after a tough loss against one.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Ravens
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
