The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) have a tough test on Sunday against a great 11-2 Philadelphia Eagles, hoping to end their nine-game winning streak.
Let’s dive into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – Philadelphia’s Jaylen Hurts is a potent talent at the helm of their offense. He has 325 attempts (T-21st), 2,456 passing yards (21st), 17 touchdowns (T-11th), and just four interceptions (T-9th) out of 41 qualifiers (min. 113 attempts).
Steeler Russell Wilson continues to lead the passing game to heights not seen since Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement. In seven games, Wilson now has 213 attempts, 1,784 yards, 12 touchdowns, and three interceptions.
The teams have a similar philosophy, including taking care of the football. In terms of offensive turnovers, each squad has 11, which ties for sixth best per my NFL turnover differentials through Week 14 article. Key component to any game, and Week 15 is no exception.
While this is true, each passer can gouge you with the big play of improbable completion. Here is completion percent above expected (CPAE) and Passer Ratings (RAT) through Week 14:
Hurts leads the NFL with a 6.4 CPAE, one of only three players with a mark above 4.0. Wilson is just outside that group with a 3.7 number that ranks fourth. While both teams have a run first mentality, there will no doubt be electrifying moments in the passing game, and hopefully Pittsburgh is on the right side of that battle.
Passer ratings intend to illustrate the value of quarterback play, and the players have also delivered fireworks in these terms. Wilson has a 103.9 RAT this season, ranking sixth-best, with Hurts just behind him at 102.4 (seventh). Quality over quantity, considering Pittsburgh’s 376 pass attempts to Philadelphia’s 328, ranking 29th and least league-wide.
The flipside is the matchup features two teams that lead the NFL in rushing attempts. Philadelphia has 473 (first) to Pittsburgh’s 438 (second). For context, only five offenses have eclipsed 400 attempts through Week 14.
The Eagles also are tops in team rushing yards (2,476), one of just three teams above 2,000. In comparison, Pittsburgh has 1,717 (ninth), illustrating the tough challenge Pittsburgh’s fourth ranked run defense faces on Sunday.
Let’s examine the scary proposition of their rushing attack further. Here’s a visual of players (regardless of position) with double-digit rushing TDs, and their yardage to date:
Here we see that Hurts ties for the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL at 13, the only QB on the list through Week 14, and tying with a stellar rusher in Raven Derrick Henry. That has come on the least yardage (544) and attempts (132) of the group, but those marks rank top three among quarterbacks.
They of course employ the famous “Tush Push”, lethal in short yardage and red zone opportunities Pittsburgh’s defense will have to be stout in for hopeful victory. Make no mistake, Hurts can bust of the big gainer as well, with an explosive run in six-of-13 games in 2024.
RUNNING BACKS – If that challenge wasn’t enough, Eagles Saquon Barkley is the best running back in football right now. He leads qualifiers (46, min. 75 attempts) with 266 rush attempts, 1,623 yards, and 6.1 yards per carry. The latter is extremely impressive on the most volume in the NFL. Their two-headed monster has limited his rushing TDs to 11, which still ties for fourth-best. Wow.
To gain more context, here’s eight men in the box rates (8MIB) and efficiency (EFF – measures north/south rushing):
Barkley is the most efficient rusher in the league, with a 2.98 number. He’s the only qualifier below three (lower numbers are best), impressively. He explodes vertically at an alarming rate so Pittsburgh’s defense must be sound off the snap and gap sound.
With all their talent across the offense, Barkley has faced 24.1 8MIB, ranking 14th. Less than you may think on the elite talent, of course a component to his success. The Steelers defense prides taking away the oppositions biggest threat. How often they play 8MIB, their effectiveness, and if that has a negative impact in the passing game is paramount. Might be tough with SS DeShon Elliott out (hamstring).
In comparison, Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris has the higher 29.1 8MIB, fifth-most of qualifiers. Quite a difference from Barkley in EFF, at 4.3, fifth-worst of 46 players. Much more east-to-west, and lesser baseline results: 223 attempts (T-fifth), 877 yards (12th), 3.9 YPC (36th), five TDs (T-19th).
Steeler Jaylen Warren has looked better the past few games. Lands right at the mean, with 3.9 EFF (25th), and the lowest 20.7 8MIB of the matchup (24th). Part of this is playing passing situations, and the defense expecting that. Rushing will hopefully be strong for Pittsburgh, but face the Eagles eighth ranked run defense. Hope they utilize RBs !LINK in the screen game, an extension of the run game where Pittsburgh has improved this season.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously key to any matchup.
Both groups are healthy, so here are PFF blocking grades for the starters (min. 500 snaps) through Week 14:
We can clearly see Philadelphia has the edge in blocking grades, with a very talented o-line that fuels their success. All five are above the mean in RBLK, and have three players above average in each. Pittsburgh has two above average in RBLK, but none in both.
Eagles expected OL:
LT Jordan Mailata: 94.2 RBLK (1st/60), 91.1 PBLK (2nd).
LG Landon Dickerson: 80.4 RBLK (6th/61), 71.8 PBLK (18th).
C Cam Jurgens: 71.3 RBLK (10th/28), 58.8 PBLK (22nd).
RG Mekhi Becton: 76.4 RBLK (15th/61), 62.3 PBLK (42nd).
RT Lane Johnson: 81.6 RBLK (7th/60), 87.8 PBLK (6th).
Wow. Mailata is one of the best tackles in the NFL, with 90-plus grades in each, top-two at the position. Johnson is also top-ten in both, the toughest challenge Pittsburgh strong edge rushers have seen this season. Only one sack allowed between both tackles, so hopefully the Steelers can change that script on Sunday.
Hurts ties for fourth-most fumbles in the NFL, so this is one of my biggest hopes for Pittsburgh, and calling for a forced fumble from league-leader T.J. Watt and group who ball-search so well.
Their interior o-line has vulnerable PBLK grades in comparison, so DL Cam Heyward and company need to create a pass rush push. The Steelers are without Larry Ogunjobi (groin), along with a hopeful return of Montravius Adams questionable (knee). Huge in the challenge they present as a largely top ten RBLK unit. Scary.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore: 64.3 RBLK (35th/60), 70.3 PBLK (36th).
LG Isaac Seumalo: 69.2 RBLK (24th/61), 61.8 PBLK (45th).
C Zach Frazier: 79.5 RBLK (4th/28), 62.6 PBLK (16th).
RG Mason McCormick: 51.8 RBLK (59th/61), 65.3 PBLK (33rd).
RT Broderick Jones: 63.2 RBLK (40th/60), 49.8 PBLK (58th).
PFF grades aren’t gospel, but these are stark in comparison to Philadelphia. Frazier’s RBLK is the exception, continually with a top five RBLK much of 2024. Very talented Eagles d-line though, and Pittsburgh must win the trenches or it could be a long day.
Philadelphia ties for seventh league-wide in sacks. Pittsburgh has allowed pressure on Wilson too often, though he’s been good at eluding it of late. Hopefully it transpires similarly, along with a similar defensive outing to Hurts’ most sacks taken (four) in quite a while.
Obviously huge in hopeful limitation of their pass game, likely giving less than desired attention to their receivers with their potent run game.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Another position the Eagles have stacked with talent. There has been some drama, with some public “beef” as A.J. Brown seemingly wants more targets. He has 66 on the year, tying for 45th (90, min. 38 targets), 48 catches (T-35th), 836 yards (15th), four TDs (T-33rd). Some validity. but wouldn’t call it struggling, when your stacked at every position and 11-2.
They could look to change the narrative of the storyline, and Brown has excelled against Pittsburgh in the past. Pittsburgh’s Joey Porter Jr. will likely be on him most, and will hopefully be able to plaster and frustrate him, knock on wood limiting his impact with commitment to the run game and Elliott out as well. Huge key.
Don’t forget about Eagle DeVonta Smith, a number one talent as well. Near Brown’s targets at 62 (T-54th), with 45 catches (T-39th), 553 yards (T-43rd), and five TDs (T-16th). CB Donte Jackson has done some nice things this season, but this one-two punch is extremely tough.
Unfortunately, Steeler WR George Pickens is out for a second-straight game. Pittsburgh’s wide receivers did some nice things last week in his absence, but Philadelphia’s strong second-ranked pass yardage defense is on another level. Must step up, and adding to his team-leading five interceptions (fourth-league wide) would be huge.
There’s a narrative that Hurts hasn’t processed in the pass game as well in 2024, and how great would FS Minkah Fitzpatrick getting his first pick of 2024 be.
Some stats stick out in the matchup. Here’s average yards after catch above expected (YACAE), and average separation (SEP) this season:
Brown is lethal in yards after catch, a physical specimen with a 2.8 YACAE that is second-best among qualifying receivers that is tough to tackle, wow. This is in spite of the third-least 2.2 separation in 2024, comparable to Pickens with substantially less YAC value in comparison. Paints a doomy picture. Can’t miss tackles, or it could be all she wrote.
Pittsburgh’s Calvin Austin has done some nice things, with the best balance of both in the outlook. His 2.1 YACAE ranks sixth, and has created 2.9 yards of separation near league average. The Steelers will definitely need explosive plays in this game, and YAC will likely be the avenue against a very strong secondary.
Smith leads them in separation as a talented route runner, but lands below the mean this season. That will hopefully be the case against Pittsburgh, along with hopefully limiting his YAC. The stats don’t bear out his awesome abilities, and could get lose considering Pittsburgh’s take away your top weapon mantra.
TIGHT ENDS – One position where Pittsburgh has a clear advantage, with talented Eagle Dallas Goedert landing on IR recently. Grant Calcaterra is next man up, coming off a three-catch performance including a red zone TD. Could leak free with everything Pittsburgh’s defense must account for. Versatile alignments: inline, slot, and the backfield.
A couple stats could be solid for both teams in the matchup, catch rates and yards after catch (YAC):
They will surely miss Goedert, but Calcaterra has also been strong in these terms, albeit on less opportunity. He is one of only three qualifiers (50, min. 20 targets) with a 90-plus catch rate, at 90.9 which ranks third. 20-for-22 receiving, compared to Steeler Pat Freiermuth, who ranks just above him (91.7) on a much higher 48 targets (21st) and 44 catches (12th). 6.3 YAC for Calcaterra, tied for eighth-best, so another worry that may occur.
Pittsburgh’s Darnell Washington leads the matchup with 6.8 YAC, tying for third. The offense has looked strong when YAC is aplenty, and hope the position shows out in these terms.
Freiermuth has good moments in these terms, but is the only matchup player below the mean with 4.9 YAC (T-28th). Hope that looks better, but a tradeoff is being targeted deeper downfield, with his highest 11.0 average distance of target of 2024 last week. Hopefully it’s a big game with Pickens sidelined another game.
DEFENSE – Another stout unit Pittsburgh has to deal with. While the Eagles have overall good health this late in the year, EDGE Brandon Graham is a big recent loss to IR. Recalling their seventh-rank in sacks (43) points to lots of production elsewhere, including 19 from the position outside of Graham, led by Josh Sweat (seven). Aligns on the right primarily, so Moore has another tough matchup after faring better against Myles Garrett last week.
Let’s look at some stats:
Pass Yards: Philadelphia (2nd). Pittsburgh (17th).
Rush Yards: Steelers (4th). Eagles (8th).
Their pass rush certainly aids their second ranked pass defense, along with a talented secondary where rush and coverage go hand-in-hand, and Pittsburgh stale in comparison. Top ten run defenses will each have tough tasks, and encouraging to see Pittsburgh with the better mark. But the challenge is like none they’ve faced, and must prove themselves worthy of a top five rank against the top running game in football.
Situational success (or lack thereof) is obviously key. Here are season ranks:
Third down: Steelers (2nd). Eagles (T-3rd).
Fourth down: Philadelphia (22nd). Steelers (27th).
Red zone: Eagles (7th). Steelers (13th).
Two fantastic third down defenses face off on Sunday, as top three units in the NFL. This will be crucial for Pittsburgh to continue, and particularly getting Philadelphia’s offense behind the chains would be huge considering how tough it is to stop their tush push and run game. Another challenge against Philadelphia’s stronger unit are three-and-out drives, which Pittsburgh’s offense has faced 13th-most in 2024. Can’t fizzle out in this one.
Lower marks by far on fourth down for both units, and could certainly see the situation become a factor. The Steelers sixth-worst mark has been a discouraging issue, particularly of late, and hopefully get right even more than some improvements against Cleveland the second time around.
Red zone will of course be vital as well, another edge that goes to Philadelphia as a top ten unit. That is also true of their offense (ninth), with a clear edge on Pittsburgh’s 29th rank. Looks doom and gloom on paper, but any given Sunday will hopefully occur, with whoever wins out likely the victor.
To close, here’s a visual of defenses pass and run EPA (measures overall scoring impact):
Week 12 Pass Defense EPA: Pittsburgh (5th). Philadelphia (8th).
Week 12 Run Defense EPA: Eagles (2nd). Steelers (14th).
The Eagles are a top ten EPA unit in both, particularly their second ranked run defense. It would be quite the accomplishment if Pittsburgh can have a solid day rushing the ball on offense (fingers crossed), and we also see their more average run defense EPA is discouraging, allowing rushing TDs more than their encouraging yardage totals.
Bright side, Pittsburgh has the better pass defense EPA, but the narrow edge illustrates how solid Philadelphia’s team is across the board as I wrap a bow on the outlook. Stats are just that, and Pittsburgh will have to buck several trends in hopes of the win. Here’s to hoping for just that, as they also have to attempt to pull this off on the road this weekend.
