The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 8-2, thankfully on a five-game winning streak and prepping for their second-straight divisional game against the 2-8 Cleveland Browns on a short week. Let’s dive into the matchup.
My recent AFC North Data Points point to the Browns’ overall offensive struggles, and their defense not being as strong in 2024. Don’t underestimate them, though, given their most recent win coming against Baltimore in Week 8.
Offense
QUARTERBACKS – It’s been pain in Cleveland, starting 1-6 with Deshaun Watson, who is now on injured reserve. Jameis Winston has the reins now, going 1-2 in his five games since. He has 145 attempts, 89 completions, a 61.4 completion rate, and 1, 047 yards.
Here are average completed (CAY) and intended air yards (IAY) for QBs through Week 11:
Winston is known as a gunslinger, and the visual illustrates that. His 7.7 completed air yards (CAY) are third, along with 10.1 intended air yards (IAY) second-most of 40 qualifiers (min. 83 attempts). Even TD/INT ratios in his past, leaning towards the latter in recent seasons. So far, that’s been 7/3 in 2024, and hopefully Pittsburgh’s strong defense can change that INT number.
Steelers QB Russell Wilson is also above average. His 6.5 CAY rank ninth and has 8.8 IAY (seventh) in four games. So, we should see deep shots from both teams, which defenses will need to be ready for. Wilson has 121 attempts, 73 completions, a 60.3 completion rate, 942 yards, and 6TDs/2INTs. Down trended last game but hopefully takes it to the Browns.
RUNNING BACKS – Nick Chubb first appeared in Week 7 and has played four games following his gruesome injury against Pittsburgh in 2023. He has 53 attempts, 163 yards, 3.1 yards per attempt, and a rushing TD. Not as potent so far, Chubb is likely getting his bearings back and gets all the respect from HC Mike Tomlin as “Mr. Chubb.”
Pittsburgh is familiar with their leading rusher so far in Jerome Ford, who rushed for 106 yards in the game Chubb was injured last season. In 2024, Ford has 57 attempts, 279 yards, healthy 4.9 yards per attempt, and one rushing TD. They can be a problem, and here’s to hoping the Steelers’ run defense can have continued success as a top five-unit tonight.
Let’s look at elusive ratings (measures success and impact independent of blocking) and yards per attempt (YPA) in 2024:
Here we see Ford is the only outlook player to land above the mean in each. His 86.1 elusive rating ranks 10th out of 59 qualifying RBs (min. 45 attempts), and 4.9 yards per attempt (YPA) lands 11th. His carries have diminished upon Chubb’s return but is still a threat that hopefully doesn’t transpire.
Same for Chubb, who hasn’t wrecked games per usual in 2024 (knock on wood). He is below-average in each, including a 52.1 elusive rating. They also have D’Onta Foreman, who lands on the bottom left too with 46 attempts, 155 yards, 3.4 YPA, no TDs, and 23.0 elusive rating (fourth worst). He also had a fumble in Week 2, and hopefully Pittsburgh can continue to create turnovers, fresh off a three-takeaway outing against the Ravens.
Both qualifying Steelers are below average in YPA. Najee Harris has an above-the-mean 82.0 elusive rating (11th), looking sprier in his best season to date with 175 attempts (sixth), 708 yards (11th), 4.0 YPA, and only the RB in the matchup with multiple TDs (three). The latter is more average, though, and hope he has a big day, including in the red zone where Pittsburgh’s struggled.
Jaylen Warren has looked better after an injury-riddled start to 2024. His 4.0 YPA this season has improved the last three games (5.1, 4.7, 4.6). That’s true for elusive rating too with each game above his low 48.8 number this year, including a stellar 145.5 in Week Eight. Warren has 64 attempts, 258 yards, and the painful red zone fumble in Week 10. Would love if he got his first TD of the season tonight.
WIDE RECEIVERS – New-look group after Cleveland traded Amari Cooper. Jerry Jeudy, the first year Brown, is their leading target (72, 17th/93), but with only 39 catches (54.2 completion rate), 560 yards, 13.2 average depth of target (ADOT), 14.4 yards per reception (YPR), and two TDs.
Elijah Moore has 58 targets, 39 catches (67.2 completion rate), 315 yards, 9.1 ADOT, 11.0 YPR, and scored his first TD of the season last week. Cedric Tillman has 45 targets, 27 catches (60.0 completion rate), 311 yards,12.6 ADOT, 11.5 YPR, and three TDs, which came in the last three games.
For the Steelers, George Pickens is now fourth in yards (728) on 77 targets (13th), 48 catches (T-15th), 62.3 completion rate, 13.5 ADOT, 15.2 YPR (T-16th), and two TDs. Calvin Austin III has 33 targets, 17 catches, low 51.5 completion rate, 12.2 ADOT, 16.2 YPR (11th), and two TDs.
The most involved receivers are getting targeted downfield, while Moore presents a challenge in the short game overall.
Here are yards after catch above expected (YACAE) and average separation (SEP):
While not elite, Cleveland has above-average players in each. Moore is the only above-the-mean separator in the outlook (3.3, 21st). Hopefully Pittsburgh’s defense can limit that and yards after catch (YAC), which the opposition has done at expectation with Moore and Jeudy, who is below average in separation too.
Tillman and both Steelers WRs have been above expected in YAC, so another strong tackling day will be needed. Austin has a very strong 2.96 YAC above expected, ranking third in the NFL. With the attention Cleveland will likely give to other playmakers, hoping he gets free for big play(s).
Pickens’ lowest matchup separation (2.3, fifth) alludes to that along with his primary deep ball usage. Despite that, being above expected in YAC is quite impressive. Encouraging and would be big against a very capable defense.
TIGHT ENDS – David Njoku is a problem, and a talent high on Mike Tomlin’s radar. He has 48 targets (14th/59, min. 15), 39 catches (T-ninth), 81.3 catch rate (T-15th), 336 yards, 8.6 YPR, and two TDs. Jordan Akins is second-most targeted (26) with 20 catches, 76.9 catch rate, 191 yards, 9.6 YPR, and one TD.
Pat Freiermuth hasn’t been as involved as desired with three targets being a game-high since Week 5, eclipsing that in each of his first four outings. In 2024, he has 34 targets (T-24th), 31 catches, a stellar 91.2 catch rate (third), 295 yards, 9.5 YPR, and outlook-high three TDs. Hoping for heavy usage.
The encouraging flipside is Darnell Washington coming on strong in the passing game. Three targets in each of the last two games, a third of his 18 targets in 10 games. Overall, Washington has 14 catches, 77.8 catch rate, 168 yards, 12.0 YPR (11th), and a TD.
Let’s get a feel for how they’ve been used as receivers by viewing average depth of target (ADOT) and yards after catch (YAC):
Here we see Washington with the only-above-the mean result, emphasizing his great contributions in YAC (7.1, fifth). That has largely been on shorter ADOT this season, true for the entire matchup this week.
Wilson has gotten him going downfield more, including two chunk plays and an explosive play last week. Added YAC on those as well, and his encouraging development hopefully continues.
Red zone is what I’m calling for, the Steelers getting the overall struggles and bad taste interception from last week out of their mouths.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously key to any matchup.
Here are Pro Football Focus’ blocking grades:
Apologize for the clutter but the graphic illustrates the injuries both teams have sustained. That looks to heavily impact their lineup.
Browns’ expected OL:
LT Germain Ifedi (56 snaps): 58.9 RBLK (68th/104), 48.0 PBLK (85th).
LG Joel Bitonio: 65.0 RBLK (40th/101), 65.6 PBLK (38th).
C Ethan Pocic: 57.0 RBLK (36th/49), 62.9 PBLK (27th).
RG Wyatt Teller: 57.6 RBLK (70th/101), 59.2 PBLK (65th).
RT Jack Conklin: 65.2 RBLK (45th/104), 70.2 PBLK (42nd).
The first name stands out most, Ifedi expected to make his initial start of 2024 and first since the 2021 season. Entering the NFL as a first-round pick, the eighth-year veteran hasn’t lived up to that billing to say the least.
His grades land eerily similar to the Steelers’ Broderick Jones, to paint a picture. Too bad Steelers EDGE Alex Highsmith won’t play, but Nick Herbig and Preston Smith can hopefully capitalize.
Three Browns starters have above average PBLK, all on the interior. They face Pittsburgh’s strong DL, and Cameron Heyward and company will hopefully eat in this one. Their guards also land above average (slightly) in RBLK.
Pittsburgh clearly has the edge there, thankfully, and hopefully steamrolls the Browns’ 26th-ranked run defense.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore Jr.: 65.3 RBLK (44th/104), 72.4 PBLK (36th).
LG Isaac Seumalo: 74.8 RBLK (16th/101), 60.0 PBLK (60th).
C Zach Frazier: 80.1 RBLK (7th/49), 67.4 PBLK (19th).
RG Mason McCormick: 55.2 RBLK (79th/101), 61.8 PBLK (54th).
RT Broderick Jones: 58.4 RBLK (69th/104), 48.0 PBLK (86th).
Frazier continues to put impressive play on tape as a rookie. The stats point to a similar storyline on Thursday Night Football, optimistically.
Star EDGE Myles Garrett is obviously the concern for Pittsburgh. He has aligned at right end the vast majority of 2024, so Moore will likely see him most. Has struggled against him in the past, but has had his best season by far. This is the most important matchup in my opinion, the Steelers hopefully quieting Garrett’s impact by using Washington’s quality blocking at TE to help.
DEFENSE —
Cleveland’s play hasn’t been as strong compared to some elite marks in 2023. Here’s a broad-scope yardage context:
Passing Yards: Cleveland (15th). Pittsburgh (17th).
Rushing Yards: Steelers (4th). Browns (20th).
Doesn’t tell the full story, but the Browns have been better against the pass, as my recent defense success rate article illustrated. Pittsburgh’s offense struggled situationally last week, so I wanted to provide defensive ranks on third down and in the red zone:
Third down: Cleveland (fifth). Pittsburgh (T-ninth).
Red zone: Cleveland (T-eighth). Pittsburgh (24th).
Cleveland’s defense has been quite good at the end of drives as a top-five unit. Even better than Pittsburgh, which ranks in the top 10. Both offenses could struggle here and hope the Steelers can be effective on early downs.
To close, here’s a visual of defenses pass and run EPA (measures overall scoring impact):
Pass Defense EPA: Pittsburgh (ninth). Cleveland (19th).
Run Defense EPA: Pittsburgh (ninth). Cleveland (23rd).
Another edge on paper goes to Pittsburgh, which is a top-10 unit in each. Cleveland is better against the pass again, but below average in each. Want and expect the Steelers offense to rack up points with an efficient run game along with Wilson and the passing game hopefully cooking.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports:
Injury-Reports:
