For several years now, I have kept a personal running spreadsheet during the draft process. The goal for me was to learn about the players, gathering information that I have tweaked along the way as I’m sure I will continue to do in the future. I will share a visual and some takeaways from the data points I create each year, simply called interest and athletic scores with explanations to follow.
As Dave Bryan and Alex Kozora discuss regularly, the Steelers have a type of player they look for, and what the scores attempt to achieve is seeing who checks many of those boxes or vice versa. You will notice many of the inspirations for these scores come from their studies of draft trends over the years for Pittsburgh, and have fared well in who Pittsburgh has ultimately drafted.
While there is no perfect way to predict what selections the Steelers will make in the 2024 draft at the end of the month, I feel great about what the data points measure and of course would love to hear feedback as I’m always looking to improve the points system. Also, there is only so much time in the day and additional things I’d like to measure, so I focus on the crucial and/or practical choices in my opinion.
Now, for more explanation of how the scores come together. The biggest point I want to make is that this is not a big board or round projection view. Rather, I am trying to pinpoint names the Steelers may select regardless of when they are drafted. After I get a healthy pool of names that I hear about or research, I begin the scoring.
Interest Score: Here, I configured a points system for the following important factors. College performance, body type, experience, age, position, competition level, pro-day attendance, pre-draft meeting(s), and Senior/Shrine Bowl invitations/participation.
This matches up nicely to the Athletic Score: simply 11 Combine metrics excluding wingspan and whether or not they were within a threshold in each metric of any player drafted at their position by the Steelers since 2013.
Clear as mud? Here are the safeties (SAF) that were Combine invites:
NOTE: If you don’t see a name please ask, I have many more non-combine players compiled but excluded them for a cleaner chart.
Expectedly, not as much interest for Pittsburgh in safeties compared to other positions, with highly attended Pro Days standing out in the strongest interest scores. Level of competition was high for all combine invites as well.
The top interest score at safety is Tykee Smith of Georgia (9.4), ranking 26th in the entire 2024 draft class. Pro Day attendance, including HC Mike Tomlin and GM Omar Kahn, with an asterisk considering the array of talent at higher positions of need for the Steelers. Did have an informal combine meeting, along with strong experience, 2023 performance, body type, and Senior Bowl participation. Age (23) is a good, but lowest score. Pairs that with a perfect 11 athletic score, impressively. He played slot corner primarily in college (including last year), along with box alignment, his second-highest snap count, fitting Pittsburgh’s needs. Early day three projection.
Fellow Bulldog Javon Bullard ranks second with a 9.3 interest score. Matching Pro Day, informal combine meeting, and Senior Bowl participant. Other strong scores are age (21), performance last season, with body type also fitting Pittsburgh’s draft history. Experience was a lower mark. Nine athletic score, with a DNP on the broad jump, and missed the Steelers’ historical thresholds in hand size (9”). Primarily a free safety in 2023, after playing slot corner substantially. Likely a day-two selection.
James Williams of Miami has an 8.2 interest score, ranking third. Pro Day attendance including scout Ike Taylor, which is notable considering DBs coach Grady Brown attended zero Pro Days (to our knowledge). Other high marks were an informal combine meeting, age (21), linebacker body type, and Senior Bowl participation. While still good, 2023 performance and experience were some lower scores. Six athletic score, with three DNPs (bench, shuttle, three-cone), and missing the mark with a 4.65 40-time and 1.61 10-split. Top alignment last year was free safety, with box snaps a close second and his primary spots in his three seasons. Likely day-three pick.
Alabama’s Jaylen Key (8.0 interest score, ten athletic score). High Pro Day attendance (asterisk with a slew of talent), experience, and body type highlight his interest score. No meetings, Shrine Bowl participant, age (24), and performance last year were lower marks. Checked all the athletic boxes he participated in (DNP on the bench). Good snap versatility in college, topped by free safety last season, with both box and slot corner close behind. Seemingly an undrafted option.
Four players have interest scores in the seven range: Kamren Kinchens of Miami (7.6 interest, seven athletic), Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin (7.1 interest, seven athletic), Oregon’s Evan Williams (7.0 interest, perfect 11 athletic score), and California’s Patrick McMorris (7.0 interest, nine athletic). Nubin met with Pittsburgh.
Combine invites yet to be mentioned that had meetings were Sione Vaki of Utah (6.7 interest, nine athletic), Auburn’s Jaylin Simpson (6.7 interest, eight athletic), Dominique Hampton of Washington (6.6 interest, ten athletic), and USC’s Calen Bullock (5.7 interest, six athletic). Another combine invite with a perfect 11 athletic score was Jaden Hicks of Washington State (6.5 interest), and was the only safety to check our Alex Kozora’s past “What The Steelers Look For” boxes.
No meetings for non-combine invites. There are a few perfect 11 athletic scores: Air Force’s Trey Taylor 5.8 interest), Wisconsin’s Jason Maitre (5.6 interest), and Cam Allen of Purdue (5.5 interest). All are late to undrafted possibilities.
While Pittsburgh has more pressing needs, the room could certainly be bolstered, with some late or undrafted candidates fitting the bill. One thing’s for sure: I can’t wait to see how it pans out.
