Though it wasn’t breaking or even “new” news on the Diontae Johnson front, his trade speculation perked up again following Dianna Russini’s tweet that Johnson could be dealt and teams are showing interest. Even though that language can mean a variety of things and doesn’t signal an imminent deal.
But if Pittsburgh does deal him, it can’t be for a pittance. Saturday marked one wide receiver deal, the Denver Broncos sending WR Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns. The return was low, fifth- and sixth-round selections in April’s draft. Though Johnson is arguably the better player, the two have similar profiles and circumstances. Their stats the last two years nearly mirror each other, Dave Bryan putting them side-by-side in this tweet. Johnson has more receptions while Jeudy has more yards, average, and touchdowns; Jeudy’s played in only one more game.
Of course, Johnson was stuck in an ugly offense over that time. No question. But Jeudy’s situation wasn’t roses either. Over the past two years, the Broncos have scored only 32 more points than the Steelers, about one point per game, while they were the 32nd-ranked offense in 2022 under Nathaniel Hackett, one of the worst head coaching hires of the last two decades. The Broncos were better than the Steelers in 2023 but overall, both offenses have been frustrating for their receivers.
Assuming Johnson is traded before his mid-March roster bonus is due, it’ll make their costs similar. Jeudy a bit more expensive but it’s a negligible cost. This isn’t a rookie contract versus a mega-money deal that would significantly impact a team’s ability to absorb salary. Each are on the final year of their deals, Johnson his extension and Jeudy playing on his fifth-year option, potentially making them a rental to their acquiring team. And Jeudy is three years younger than Johnson, working in his favor for the Browns when it comes to a potential and eventual extension.
Ultimately, Johnson likely carries more value than Jeudy. The question is by how much and most importantly, is it enough? This year’s wide receiver draft class is deeper than ever. A dozen players could go in the top 50. Why would a team trade a Day 2 pick for an older and more expensive option on an expiring deal when it can draft a rookie on a cheap four-year deal? There’s a known versus unknown element but it will hurt Pittsburgh’s leverage just in the way it seemed to hurt the Broncos in the Jeudy deal. Also, and this is less tangible, but when has a team trading for a Steelers’ receiver been happy with its ROI? Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown, Chase Claypool, if the Steelers are willing to deal a wideout, buyer beware.
Based off what Jeudy returned, Johnson’s value might be less than initially believed. And less than what Pittsburgh’s angling for. I could see him going for a fourth and sixth rounder or at best, a late third-round compensatory pick, which only a few teams hold (the Jacksonville Jaguars, if they lose WR Calvin Ridley, could be a fit but they have limited draft capital and may not be willing to part with the 96th pick).
If Pittsburgh deals Johnson, it creates a giant hole at receiver opposite George Pickens. There’s no depth, no internal replacement. Getting back Day 3 picks won’t be suitable capital to replace Johnson, even in such a deep receiver class. That depth will run thin by then. Dealing Johnson just adds another need to a long list. And it would compel the team to draft one early, potentially passing up center, offensive tackle, corner (slot and outside), defensive line, and inside linebacker along the way (free agency will plug some of those holes and Pittsburgh should be active).
In a year where Pittsburgh needs its offense to perform better than it has the last five years, dealing Johnson only harms that mission. If Kenny Pickett is to be the starter, removing a top weapon isn’t going to help his chances of proving he’s the franchise guy. Other reasons can be argued in favor of dumping Johnson, including his apparent support of Mason Rudolph and the possibility of losing him to free agency after the year (and if the Steelers are active this offseason as they have recently been, they may not get back a compensatory pick for him).
Trading Johnson is one thing. With the right return, it’s defendable to a degree. But dealing him for slightly more than Jeudy is a net negative. This remains hypothetical and the initial reporting on a Johnson deal indicated that the Steelers would only move him for “the right price.” Pittsburgh knows all that I’ve laid out. But if Jeudy’s return is at least in the ballpark of what Johnson would fetch, keeping Johnson looks like the Steelers’ smartest move.
