The number of variables that have already changed for the Pittsburgh Steelers throughout the offseason make it difficult to determine exactly what expectations for them should be. They finished last season with 10 wins, albeit with one of the easiest strengths of schedule in the league. Now they have a much more difficult schedule, but they also have an overhauled quarterback room, a new offensive coordinator, changes along the offensive line and receiver room, and some additional pieces on defense.
One betting platform has their over/under win total set at 7.5. On ESPN’s Get Up on Friday morning, they had it set at 8.5. Both figures are essentially predicting a disappointing season for Pittsburgh and a regression from its 2023 season. Former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum was asked which side of the betting line he would take if given the 8.5 over/under.
“I am going way more, I thought that was a typo,” Tannenbaum said. “They had a tremendous offseason. Look, Justin Fields, to me, is going to be the starter. It’s way better than the moribund quarterback play last year of [Kenny] Pickett and Mason Rudolph. That defense is top five, you have a Hall of Fame coach, and I think Justin Fields with Arthur Smith is gonna be the story of the 2024 season.”
While I agree that the Steelers are likely to exceed 8.5 wins, it would be unusual for both that to be true and Fields to be the starter, as Tannenbaum predicts. Russell Wilson has been given “pole position” by head coach Mike Tomlin. The most likely scenario for Fields to start would be Wilson struggling. Him struggling would likely mean the Steelers lose some games early on in the season to make way for a quarterback change.
In that scenario Fields would have to go on a tear and win a lot of games for the Steelers to far exceed the 8.5 win total. Wilson may not be what he once was during his heyday in Seattle, but he threw for 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions last season with a less talented team around him. The Steelers spent their last couple seasons building their team to win without great quarterback play, so they don’t need one to step in and carry the team, like Wilson was expected to do in Denver.
They’ve also lost very few players on defense in free agency. CB Patrick Peterson, DL Armon Watts, OLB Markus Golden, and CB Chandon Sullivan are the only pieces that were actually playing at the end of the season who are no longer on the roster. Meanwhile they added ILB Patrick Queen and S DeShon Elliott, and DT Cameron Heyward should be much improved after playing injured for most of the 2023 season.
It seems unlikely that the Steelers will go under 8.5 wins, but the more important question is whether they can secure their first playoff victory since the 2016 season.
