The 8-7 Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off an encouraging blowout win, hopefully able to stack another for playoff aspirations against the Seahawks, who hold the same record. Let’s dive into the matchup.
After missing two games with a groin injury, Seattle’s Geno Smith returned to action last week. While it hasn’t been as stellar as his 2022 campaign, he is still a formidable challenge on Sunday.
Mason Rudolph surprised last week, looking comfortable facilitating Pittsburgh’s best offensive performance of 2023 with 290 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions en route to 34 points (season-high), and will start again this week.
Here are QBs big time throw rates (BTT=pass with excellent location/timing, generally downfield and/or tight window) and turnover-worthy plays (TWP=high chance of interception/fumble) from PFF this season:
Though it’s a small sample size for Rudolph, we see he lands comfortably above average in both following his encouraging Week 16 outing. His 6.5-percent BTT ties for second-best league-wide, putting his deep-ball accuracy on display. He did have one TWP (2.9 percent, 20th among 60 qualifiers), though none led to turnovers, thankfully.
Seeing where the other Steelers QBs land illustrates their differences well, with Pickett having the fourth-best 1.8 TWP in the NFL and a more average BTT (29th), while Mitch Trubisky frankly wasn’t cutting it (54th BTT, T-48th TWP).
Smith has provided big-time throws for Seattle, at 5.7 percent (T-11th), but does put the ball in harm’s way, tied for a 35th TWP of 3.8. Hopefully, this rings true for Pittsburgh’s defense, who are coming off a three-interception game, and winning the turnover battle usually bodes well for a Steelers victory.
Smith is also top five in NextGenStats completion percentage over the expected model:
Not at the high bar he set last season (second-best in 2022), but Smith is still connecting with his playmakers very well, ranking fifth in CPOE this year. Connection, particularly on big plays, will be huge and hopefully leans in Pittsburgh’s favor.
Pittsburgh’s running game was also key in the great team win in Week 16, with rushing touchdowns from Najee Harris and encouragingly getting WR Calvin Austin III involved with a red zone score. Jaylen Warren provided a wow block on the latter, continuing his fantastic campaign that is so much fun to watch.
Two backs have dominated the snaps for the Seahawks. Kenneth Walker is tied for 18th league-wide with 774 rush yards, one spot behind Harris despite missing two games. He also leads the outlook with seven touchdowns, with Harris next up at five. Seattle’s Zach Charbonnet is their backup, with the rookie having slightly better yards per carry (4.2) than Walker (4.0).
Those numbers aren’t gaudy by any stretch, and this view of breakaway percent (BAP=runs of 15-plus) and yards after contact per rush (YCO) adds more context:
Looking at Seattle first, we see Walker has a strong 30.5 BAP that ranks eighth in the NFL. It is vital that Pittsburgh’s run defense keeps a lid on this IMO, waning a bit and allowing rushing success recently. Walker’s 2.86 YCO is the lowest of the outlook (T-24th), near average among 45 qualifiers.
All four backs are above average in BAP, which may come as a surprise given their baseline stats. Charbonnet is slightly above the mean in both, 23.8 BAP (T-20th) and a stronger 2.97 YCO that ties for 14th. Pittsburgh’s defense better be ready to tackle.
Warren is one of the best YCO players in 2023 (3.64), ranking impressively at second. His 32.5 BAP has also been stellar, tying for sixth best. Harris has also provided a strong 30.0 BAP (10th) and 2.93 YCO (T-19th), the former a welcomed surprise, with more of a bruiser reputation than an explosive runner. Expecting a strong game against Seattle’s defense, who ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed.
Seattle is solid at the position. Tyler Lockett leads the team in targets (109) and catches (76). D.K. Metcalf (questionable-back) is a dude, approaching a 1,000-yard season (998). A big challenge for Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. if healthy. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is taking advantage of the attention they receive, ranking fifth in separation this season (84 qualifiers).
Let’s look at percent of team’s air yards (TAY) and yards after catch (YAC):
Here we see Metcalf has the best balance of the data points for Seattle, with 38.8 TAY, which’s eighth most league-wide and ranks 18th with 5.7 YAC. Pittsburgh’s George Pickens has had an impressive season in these terms, especially following his breakout in Week 16 (195 yards, two touchdowns). Catapults him to 1,009 yards in 2023, sixth in YAC (6.8), and 37.5 TAY (12th). Hopefully, the Rudolph/Pickens connection remains strong.
We see Lockett’s volume on the visual, with 33.2 TAY (19th), but the lowest 2.6 YAC (74th) of primary receivers. Pittsburgh’s Diontae Johnson is an outlook fourth in each, with 29.0 TAY (27th) and 3.6 YAC, the latter surprisingly low at 57th. With Pickens likely to get more attention, hopefully, the Steelers have a solid plan to scheme others open more, including Johnson.
Smith-Njigba is a distant third in usage, with 14.2 TAY (74th), but provides an impressive 6.1 YAC (10th) off of his separation. Secondary receivers tend to go off on Pittsburgh’s defense, and hopefully, we’re not discussing that post-game. Allen Robinson II lands at the extreme lower left, with 2.2 YAC (fifth-lowest) and 10.4 TAY (third-least), but did get more involved as Rudolph encouragingly spread the ball around last week.
Metcalf is also one of nine WRs with eight touchdowns or more:
This re-emphasizes how important Metcalf’s status is, and considering he’s played through other injuries, would expect him to go Sunday.
Neither team has utilized the position consistently as receivers. Seattle uses three TEs, quality blockers that will surely be busy on Pittsburgh’s EDGE rushers. Noah Fant is the most targeted (36), and Colby Parkinson has 24. In comparison, Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth leads the matchup with 39 targets, while Connor Heyward has 31. The Seahawks would be wise to increase their looks, given Pittsburgh’s depleted second level on defense.
Here are yards per reception (YPR) and catch rates for TEs:
While volume is lacking, Seattle presents challenges here. Fant has 13.1 YPR, second-best among 50 qualifiers, along with an above-average 75-percent catch rate (T-20th). Parkinson has a reliable 83.3 catch rate (T-third league-wide), and second in the outlook with 10.1 YPR (T-23rd). He also has two touchdowns in the last three games, and hopefully, Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t the next victim.
Steelers’ TEs are below the mean in each, unfortunately. Freiermuth has nine YPR (36th) and a 69.2 catch rate (38th) to date. Hoping for a big game after being high on Cincinnati’s radar last week and no targets. Heyward has 7.8 YPR (third-least) and a 67.7 catch rate (T-40th), and, knock-on-wood, the position makes an impact.
Here are OL PFF-grades:
Seattle’s starters have the PBLK edge, and Pittsburgh with higher RBLK overall. Neither team has stellar grades, and no Seahawk is above the mean in both.
Seahawks:
LT Charles Cross has a 60.5-RBLK and outlook-best 72.8-PBLK, the best individual grade among expected starters. Has a team-high 31 pressures, tied for the most sacks allowed (five). Hopefully, Pittsburgh EDGE Alex Highsmith will add to those tallies on Sunday.
LG Damien Lewis (61.6-PBLK, 61.1-RBLK) has allowed a team-high 24 hurries, C Evan Brown (64.0-PBLK, 55.5-RBLK) a team-high seven penalties, and RG Anthony Bradford an outlook-low 35.1-PBLK (55.9-RBLK). Expect Pittsburgh’s DL to fare well.
RT Abraham Lucas (61.8-RBLK, 48.4-PBLK) gets one of the toughest tests against star T.J. Watt, who I expect to fill the stat sheet and build on his 2023 sack lead.
Steelers:
LT Dan Moore (60.1-RBLK, 37.2-PBLK) has allowed 51 pressures (second most league-wide), 36 hurries (sixth most), eight QB hits (T-seventh most), and seven sacks (T-10th most), all matchup-highs. RT Broderick Jones (62.5-RBLK, 53.1-PBLK) has noticeably struggled as a pass blocker of late. Their strong collection of edge rushers that move around will be key on Sunday.
LG Isaac Seumalo (68.8-RBLK, 65.6-PBLK) has the best-balanced grades for Pittsburgh. RG James Daniels (61.1-RBLK, 61.1-PBLK) and C Mason Cole (67.7-RBLK, 40.8-PBLK) were part of a stronger Week 16 ground game, which hopefully continues against Seattle’s suspect run defense.
Defense. The Seahawks have struggled in many ways, including first downs and third down conversions allowed:
Seattle ranks 31st in each, with 331 FDA and a 46.8 3DCR, encouraging to hear for Pittsburgh’s offense that’s looking to keep the momentum going. The better mark for the Steelers’ defense is 281 FDA, T-11th best league-wide, but have a slightly below the mean 39.8 3DCR (T-21st). Clear advantage for Pittsburgh on paper. Hopefully, an efficient outing on offense with sustained drives while limiting them defensively leads to another encouraging victory.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury Reports: Steelers Seahawks
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