The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 7-5, looking to rebound following a tough loss, and face another 2-10 team in the New England Patriots. Let’s dive into the matchup.
- One of many bad things that occurred in Week 13 was an injury to Steelers QB Kenny Pickett, a high-ankle-sprain. He is out for the game, and likely longer. Next up is Mitch Trubisky, who entered in the second quarter, and now has 55 dropbacks in 2023.
New England’s Mac Jones started the first 11 games of 2023 but was benched again in Week 12 outing against the Giants, going 12-of-21 (57.1 percent), 4.2 YPA, no touchdowns, two interceptions, a fumble, and a 27.8-rating. Bailey Zappe came in and went 9-of-14 (64.3 percent), 3.9 YPA, no touchdowns, one interception, and a 42.0 rating.
Then got his first start last week against the Chargers, an ugly 6-0 loss, with 141 passing yards, a 52-percent completion rate (25 attempts), 5.6-YPA, 0-0 TD-INT, a 68.9-rating, and sacked a whopping five times. Hopefully, Pittsburgh’s defense can have a similar day getting to and limiting the QB in Week 14.
With neither offense humming by any means, along with changes at the position, the team that limits turnovers will likely come out on top. Let’s look at turnover-worthy-play (TWP) and big-time-throw-rates (BTT) this season (min. 50 dropbacks):
Each QB in the matchup is below the mean in BTT, with Pickett landing slightly below it (3.8 percent), T-27th among 47 qualifiers. He expectedly has a strong 1.8-TWP (T-fifth), setting a franchise record for consecutive INT-less games, eight including his early exit last week. In totality, Pickett has 13 big-time throws, seven turnover-worthy plays this, and a 6-4 TD INT ratio in 2023 (363 dropbacks,25th).
Jones struggled with turnovers with a 5.8 TWP, third-worst league-wide (45th), and 3.1-BTT (32nd). On 379 dropbacks (22nd), he has a 10-12 TD-INT ratio, with 11 big-time throws and a whopping 23 turnover-worthy plays, league-worst.
In Zappe’s five games played (74 dropbacks,third-least), has a 1.5-BTT (44th), and a better 2.7-TWP (T-17th). Just one-big-time-throw and two-turnover-worthy-plays, with a 0-2 TD-INT-ratio. Other than Zappe’s two INT’s, hasn’t put the ball in harm’s way comparatively, but hopefully, Pittsburgh’s defense can change that with a strong-pass-rush and capitalize with an interception(s).
Trubisky has the least dropbacks, a 2.0-BTT (fifth-worst), and a 5.3-TWP that ties for fourth-worst. In three-games-played, he has one big-time-throw, three turnover-worthy-plays, and a 2-2 TD-INT-ratio. Hopefully, he can have his best 2023 outing in these terms, particularly taking care of the football, while hopefully adding some big plays as well.
- Both teams will want to lean on their ground game, with Pittsburgh encouragingly at 1,384 yards (14th), while New England has 1,244 (22nd). Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson was ruled out (high-ankle-sprain), meaning Ezekiel Elliott will likely get the bulk of the work. They have all the carries for New England to date, Stevenson with 619 yards (22nd,4.0 YPA), and Elliott with 429 (3.8 YPA).
Something that stands out is their north-south running style and scheme. Here’s a look at average time-to-the-line of scrimmage (TLOS) and efficiency (EFF=total distance traveled on runs):
The Patriots backfield is above-the-mean in both, with Stevenson’s 2.5 TLOS the second-fastest league-wide among 47 qualifiers (min. 65-attempts), along with a seventh-ranked 3.5 EFF. Elliott isn’t far behind (ninth-TLOS, 13th-EFF). If Pittsburgh’s d-line gets off-the-ball and shoot-gaps (a strength of rookie Keeanu Benton and others), it could lead to a more advantageous matchup compared to last week (Cardinals James Conner third-longest TLOS).
Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren has decisiveness as well, more so once he sees the lane. His 23rd-ranked 2.8-TLOS is at league-average and much quicker 3.3-EFF that is the NFL’s fourth-quickest hammers this point, and aided his great season with 601 yards (27th), and top-ranked 5.9-YPA by half-a-yard.
Najee Harris (questionable-knee) is at the mean in EFF (3.9, 27th), and has the only below-average-result in the outlook, a 2.8 TLOS (23rd). He had his best game as a rusher in Week 12 with a near 100-yard game (6.6 YPA), following that up with a 3.9 YPA on a similar opportunity (15 attempts), compared to Warren’s 6.6 YPA on nine carries.
Hopefully, it’s a big day on the ground for Pittsburgh, but may be tough sledding with New England sporting a league-best 3.2-YPA against the run. Not what you want to hear, especially with Harris’-status in question, and the struggling pass-game that’s without Pickett.
- The Patriots have been decimated by injury, with none playing all 12 games in 2023. The most recent is Demario Douglas (out-concussion), after leading the team in targets in the last two games (nine). He now leads the team with 410 yards, eclipsing Kendrick Bourne, who is lost for the season (ACL).
DeVante Parker’s targets have ramped up in recent weeks (39-targets,264-yards in 2023), and a familiar name in JuJu Smith-Schuster (40-targets,170-yards), but both are also questionable, wow.
Here are WRs (min. 33-targets) intended-air-yards (IAY) and yards-after-catch (YAC):
George Pickens has one of the best balances of both league-wide: 13.2-IAY (18th) and 5.6-YAC (17th) among the 87-qualifiers (min. 33-attempts), on an outlook-high 78-targets and 748-yards (T-32nd, 22nd). YAC has been down-trending since the bye, and expect his climbing IAY to continue with Trubisky’s-resume of taking more deep-shots. New England’s defense focuses on eliminating the top options, so expect extra attention on Pickens that may lessen his impact.
Diontae Johnson is also above-average with 11.8-IAY (32nd), but below the mean with 3.9-YAC (49th). He is without a 100-yard game in 2023, including a low 33-yard last week, but did have an explosive 26-yard catch and a touchdown, but the latter came in garbage time. Really hoping for a strong game, adding to his 59 targets and 418 yards in eight games. Allen Robinson II and Smith-Schuster land similarly, with Robinson’s IAY eighth-lowest and fourth-least YAC, while the latter is fifth-and-eighth-least, respectively.
Douglas’ absence is huge. He is great after-the-catch, with 7.3-YAC that’s fifth-best league-wide, and is 18th in separation. No Patriot is above league average in IAY, emphasizing Pittsburgh’s defense likely facing a shorter-passing game, though Zappe does have a higher 9.8-ADOT in limited-attempts this season (Jones 7.4). Parker leads them in these terms (10.7-IAY, 48th), and slightly above-average 4.6-YAC (36th). Pittsburgh’s pass defense better look good Thursday in hopes of victory.
- Patriots Hunter Henry leads the matchup with 50 targets (19th), 32 catches (23rd), 313 yards (T-22nd), and three touchdowns (T-tenth). Pittsburgh’s defense better be ready for him, particularly close to the end-zone. Tough-challenge with the battered-LB-room and recent failure in that regard in Week 12. LB Elandon Roberts went down in-game, and will hopefully play (questionable-groin). Here’s to hoping that’s a primary focus, while not sacrificing too much on the ground sans-Stevenson.
Another thing that stands out for New England’s TEs is average-distance-of-target (ADOT), and I’ll visualize that along with YAC:
Both Patriots TEs are in the top five in ADOT (38 qualifiers), with Henry at 9.3 (fourth), and Mike Gesicki’s 9.7 coming in at second-most. As expected, the other side of the coin is lower YAC, Gesicki fifth-least, and Henry dead last. The former has the second-most targets in the outlook (31), but a more modest 21 catches, 181 yards, and one TD.
They utilize the position often, playing two-TEs at a league-high 39 percent, and three TEs at eighth-most with success. We’ve encouragingly seen the latter (13 personnel) from Pittsburgh in the last three games since Pat Freiermuth’s return from injury (second-most league-wide), with a 36-percent success rate (11th). Huge-key to the game for both teams, and improved blocking from Darnell Washington and company would aid outside runs away from the stout Patriots’ rush defense.
Connor Heyward still leads the team with 29 targets, but the only below-the-mean 5.9-ADOT (T-30th), and slightly below-average 4.4-YAC (T-20th). Freiermuth leads Pittsburgh with 21 catches despite only seven games, thanks to his 75-percent-catch-rate (T-15th), along with 209 yards, and two touchdowns. Hopefully, he has another big game on Thursday night.
Here are OL PFF grades:
New England leads the matchup in RBLK, while pass-blocking is more evenly-graded, but coming in a bit lower overall.
LT Trenton Brown (questionable-ankle/hand) leads the Patriots in RBLK (86.5), eighth-best league-wide, along with a 76.4-PBLK that each leads the matchup. His availability is huge, and who matches up against Steelers EDGE Alex Highsmith. T.J. Watt will hopefully ball out against RT Michael Onwenu (72.2-RBLK,67.6-PBLK) on the other side as well.
Their interior is highlighted by C David Andrews, seemingly faring better this season in run-blocking (81.8-RBLK,75.5-PBLK), along with RG Sidy Sow (69.9-RBLK,57.6-PBLK), and LG Cole Strange (68.5-RBLK,55.9-PBLK). All five-starters land above the outlook mean, and hopefully, Pittsburgh’s d-line steps up this week.
Steelers o-line: LT Dan Moore (58.9-RBLK,38.5-PBLK), LG Isaac Seumalo (65.1-PBLK,65.1-RBLK), C Mason Cole (64.3-RBLK,36.9-PBLK), RG James Daniels (68.3-PBLK,62.0-RBLK), Broderick Jones (64.0-RBLK,57.4-PBLK). Seumalo and Cole are both questionable (shoulder, neck), and it’ll be an even tougher test if one or both can’t go on Thursday. Nate Herbig (71.9-RBLK,67.6-PBLK) came in for Seumalo last game and was encouragingly PFF’s highest-graded Steeler in Week 13. Knock-on-wood, they are the fuel to a victory Week 14 win.
Defense. Here’s a visual of yardage allowed:
The chart emphasizes New England’s stout run defense, ranking third in RYA, and first with 3.2 YPA. Tough to hear with how Pittsburgh wants to operate on offense. They rank a modest 15th in PYA and eighth in total-yards-allowed (helmet sizes). Comparatively, the Steelers defense is below the mean in each, slightly in PYA (2,728,18th) and 1,452-RYA (21st). The latter is more concerning given the matchup, and hopefully, Pittsburgh can tighten that up, along with improving their 4,180 total-yards-allowed that also ranks 21st.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Patriots
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