The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 7-4 after an encouraging divisional win, facing the 2-10 Arizona Cardinals, on a two-game losing streak. Let’s dive into the matchup.
QB Kyler Murray has missed most of the season, on IR from his ACL injury, and returned to 2023 action in Week 10. In three games, Arizona is 1-2, with Murray throwing for 719 yards on 107 attempts (6.7 YPA). He has a 61.7 completion rate, ranking 32nd out of 38 qualifying QBS (min. 100 attempts), two touchdowns and two interceptions, for a 79.9-passer-rating (29th), and sacked nine times.
Murray is a special talent with his legs, already with three rushing TDs in as many games, at 6.1 YPA which is third among QBs (min. five attempts). Pittsburgh’s front seven will need a team effort to account for him or expect trouble. The highest QB rushing total allowed by the Steelers this season is 45 yards, to Ravens QB Lamar Jackson in Week Five, so hopefully they can similarly limit Murray.
QB Kenny Pickett will hopefully carry his momentum over from a great passing performance last week, including a second-ranked PFF passing grade for Week 12. In 2023, Pickett now has 2,000-yards (23rd), 314-attempts (23rd), 6.4-YPA (30th), 61.8-completion-rate (30th), 6-TDs/4-INTs (+2 ratio, T-26th), an 81.2-passer-rating (28th) and sacked 23 times (18th-most).
A similarity stuck out when looking at the QB stats, “aggressiveness” from NextGenStats (AGG=rate in which a QB throws into tight windows, a defender within one yard of completion/incompletion). Let’s look at this across-the-league, along with average-air-yard-differential (AYD=completed–intended-air-yards):
The QBs are among the two most “aggressive” in the NFL, with Pickett leading the league at 20.4 percent. That rate was better last week at 15.2, with the new offensive coordinators bringing changes after firing Matt Canada that will hopefully continue. Pickett is near the NFL mean with a -2.4 AYD (4.8-completed, 7.2-intended-air-yards), ranking 21st.
This is a noticeable difference to date, with Murray having the third-worst -3.5 AYD (5.7-completed, 9.2-intended-air-yards) at an also high 17.8-percent-AGG (sixth-most). Yes, it’s a small sample, but hopefully, this plays into the splash-play-ability of Pittsburgh’s defense, who are tied for fourth in takeaways. Murray’s intended number is fourth-most, so watch out for deep-passing as well.
Former Steelers RB James Conner is the primary back for Arizona, leading their strong-rushing-attack that averages 4.8 YPA this season, ranking third in the NFL. Let’s look at the backs in the matchup from a YPA and rush-yards-over-expected/att (RYOE) perspective:
Steelers RB Jaylen Warren leads the 46 qualifiers at the position (min. 65 attempts) in both, impressively, with 5.8 YPA and 1.7 RYOE. He has three TDs this season, but added a blemish to his resume with a fumble/turnover last week, his second on the year.
Najee Harris was the bigger contributor in Week 12, with 6.6 YPA on 99 rushing yards, both season-highs. He also added a red-zone-touchdown, with four total in 2023 now, and climbing season averages of 4.2 YPA (21st) and 0.3 RYOE (18th). Pittsburgh’s-backfield has been a great one-two punch as the ground game has encouragingly improved. Hopefully, that continues against the Cardinals’ defense, who are tied for 25th in YPA.
We also see Conner’s solid marks, averaging 5.1 YPA (fifth) and 0.8 RYOE (seventh). He has two rushing touchdowns in 2023, coming in Weeks two and three before his injury (eight games played). In three games since, he has gained most of his yards-after-contact, including 100 percent of his 89 yards in the last two outings.
It’s a yards-after-contact matchup, featuring some of the best in 2023, Warren (first), Conner (second), and Harris (T-13th). It should be an enjoyable smash-mouth brand of football that Pittsburgh hopefully wins, and Conner will certainly be looking for a big game against his former team.
- WR. Two Cardinals have been banged up this week: WR1 Marquise Brown (heel, questionable) and Michael Wilson, ruled out for Sunday’s game (shoulder). Brown’s status will be big and important to monitor. Rondale Moore will likely see more opportunities as a result. Average cushion (CUSH=distance between receiver and nearest defender at the snap) and separation (SEP=distance at catch or incompletion) has been a strength for him:
Moore ranks first in separation among 83 qualifiers (min.-34 attempts) at 4.7 and ranks fifth with 7.3 CUSH. He benefits from the concepts and attention Brown and others get. Hopefully, he doesn’t break loose Sunday, as Pittsburgh tends to focus on the opposition’s primary weapon(s), emphasizing the prior paragraph further.
Wilson ranks second in the matchup in this regard, at 2.9 (34th), with advantageous CUSH as well (28th). The dot sizes illustrate Brown as their leading receiver and in the matchup by far, with 98 targets (14th), but just 51 receptions (25th). Even since Murray’s return, the two have connected for only nine catches, at a 47.4 catch rate in part to his below-average CUSH and SEP. Hopefully Pittsburgh’s defense continues their improvements in the pass game against Arizona.
Steelers’ Diontae Johnson has been given the most CUSH, well above average at 7.04 (12th-most), but lower SEP than his reputation and abilities in 2023 (2.7, 47th). This included a 1.7 mark in a less-than-ideal Week 12 performance (missed-TD-opportunity one example), third-worst among WRs as he gets deserved respect from the opposition. Hopefully this trends positively, and is a goal for Pittsburgh this week, considering Allen Robinson II lands a spot higher in SEP on the year despite less CUSH, surprisingly.
George Pickens led Steelers WRs in yards (58) and SEP (3.4) in Week 12, compared to his fifth-lowest 2.3 SEP in 2023. He has seen press-man at the line more than any other receiver in the NFL (4.9 CUSH), important context to his contributions this season: 662 yards (28th), three TDS, and a higher 54.8-catch-rate than Johnson (54.5). Both percentages are in the bottom-15 league-wide, and hopefully improve moving forward.
TE Pat Freiermuth is coming off a great game, with a whopping 11 targets and 120 yards, the latter the only 100-yard game of his career, earning a position-best grade from PFF in Week 12. He was a refreshingly big difference in a vastly improved passing game that struggled in his absence, and hopefully continues.
Arizona’s Trey McBride is having a solid year, and is one of seven TEs with 500-plus yards:
His 521 yards have come on 65 targets, each ranking seventh. Nine of them came in Week 12, tying for second behind Freiermuth. Yardage was a big difference though, with the latter having an impressive 13.3 yards-per-reception, while McBride had 60 yards and 8.6 YPR last week. He’s also been on the injury report this week and is questionable. Hopefully Pittsburgh’s linebackers have a strong day on McBride if available.
Here are OL PFF grades:
Arizona’s starters have fared best as pass blockers, while Pittsburgh has the edge in RBLK grades. Neither team has stellar marks, with most coming in below 70.
RG Will Hernandez is the only Arizona starter with above-the-matchup-mean grades (67.3PBLK, 62.6RBLK). C Hjalte Froholdt is next on the interior (57.2RBLK, 53.4RBLK). They have suffered an injury at LG, with Carter O’Donnell starting the last three games (59.2PBLK, 52.8RBLK).
The book-ends are LT D.J. Humphries (65.4PBLK, 51.7RBLK) and rookie RT and sixth-overall-pick Paris Johnson (61.6PBLK, 47.6RBLK). Their group has been uninspiring, with Johnson allowing 34 pressures that ironically ties for tenth-most league-wide with Steelers LT Dan Moore, and hopefully, Pittsburgh’s DL has a field day on Sunday against Arizona.
RG James Daniels has come on strong with a couple of nice games recently, now with a 68.7PBLK and 63.6RBLK on the year, the best balance in the matchup. LG Isaac Seumalo has also been good on the whole this year (64.6PBLK, 62.4RBLK). Rookie RT Broderick Jones is also above the outlook mean (63.5RBLK, 57.6PBLK), with the team’s rushing surge aligning with his insertion into the starting lineup in Week Nine.
C Mason Cole (62.7RBLK, 34.6PBLK) is trending in the right direction following better performances of late, particularly in the run game. Moore is the only Steeler below the mean in both (56.2RBLK, 34.0PBLK), though last week was an encouraging performance to hopefully build on moving forward.
Defense: Perhaps the clearest edge for Pittsburgh in the outlook, with Arizona dealing with several changes (injury/trades), contributing to poor play in 2023. Here are defenses expected-points-added (EPA=scoring value compared to expectation per-play):
The visual illustrates these points for the Cardinals, who are one of five teams well below the mean in both running and passing EPA (29th, 30th). The matchup seemingly bodes well for Pittsburgh’s offense looking to continue improvements from Week 12 against Cincinnati, with one encouraging element being fantastic on third-down, and more points a hopeful difference this game.
Safety is a big storyline, with Arizona’s Budda Baker arguably their best-player, and Pittsburgh’s Minkah Fitzpatrick finally returning from his Week Eight injury. The Steelers’ defense will hopefully show out in the process, continuing their particularly strong pass EPA (eighth), but 18th run EPA hopefully improving and not giving up too much ground to Conner and company in his return to Pittsburgh.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Cardinals
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