The 2-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to right several wrongs off their blowout loss 6-30 last week and get that bad taste out of their mouth in a very important divisional game against the Baltimore Ravens (3-1). They are 2-0 in the division, coming off a 28-3 win against the Browns (sans QB Deshaun Watson). Let’s dive into the matchup.
- It all starts here in my opinion with Lamar Jackson. The unique challenge he brings as a runner at the position is a huge key for Pittsburgh’s run defense:
Jackson leads the QB position with 220 rush yards and four touchdowns and is a scary test following a poor missed tackle showing for the Steelers’ defense last week. He has fumbled six times in four games, and hopefully splash play(s) favor Pittsburgh.
Here is a visual of QB’s air yard differential (AYD = competed air yards – intended air yards), completion percentages (COMP), and passer ratings (RAT) as their dot sizes:
Jackson has also fared well in 2023 so far as a passer, particularly the second-best 74.3 COMP on 105 attempts (28th/35 qualifiers), despite several injuries to his receiving corps. He also ranks seventh with a 104.2 RAT (four passing TDs/one INT), and the fifth-best AYD. It has been short and efficient passing, with 5.7 completed air yards and 6.9 intended air yards.
Kenny Pickett will encouragingly play this Sunday, after a scary sack that looked worrisome. He has a 60.6 COMP (30th) on 127 attempts (18th), a 76.3 RAT (29th), 4TDs/4INTs, and 27th in AYD (4.3 completed-air-yards, 7.0 intended-air-yards). The latter emphasizes the downfield struggles I’ve highlighted. The pass game must be better, and fast, in hopes of victory.
- RB. Baltimore loves to run the football, second in the NFL with 139 attempts and fourth in yards (605) despite several injuries to their backfield. Here’s a visual of time to the line of scrimmage (TLOS), efficiency (EFF = yards traveled per rush yards gained, lower numbers = north/south runners), and attempts as their dot sizes:
Of the 44 qualifiers (min. 25 attempts), Ravens Gus Edwards is above the mean in both, ranking tenth in TLOS (2.6) and EFF (3.3). So, he hits the hole and gets north/south very quickly, and has resulted in 193 yards (24th), 4.4 YPA (16th), six 10-plus runs (long of 20), and a touchdown. The availability of the rest of their room is in question, but the ground game must be a priority regardless of who suits up.
Najee Harris was one of the few bright spots for Pittsburgh last week. He has 210 rush yards which ties for 19th at the position (ten yards less than Jackson) on 49 attempts (24th) and no touchdowns. Would be great to see that finally. On the visual, his better number has been an above-average 3.9 EFF (25th), despite a low 3.8 TLOS that ranks 41st (fourth longest), resulting in 4.3 YPA (17th), and six 15-plus runs. Hopefully, the o-line/run game can build on some improvements, and find more consistency.
Jaylen Warren’s role has encouragingly increased with the Steelers, making the chart for the first time this season. He has an above-average 2.8 TLOS (25th) and 4.5 EFF (33rd). Warren has 84 yards, on only 3.4 YPA (34th), two 10-plus runs, no TDs and a fumble. His impact has come as a receiver, with 21 targets (T-third) and 127 yards (fifth), and leads the NFL with ten forced missed tackles, impressively.
- WR. Both teams have dealt with injuries at the position, particularly the Ravens. Most of Baltimore’s will seemingly return, so the Steelers pass defense better step up after a disappointing start to 2023.
Here are WRs with a minimum of 13 targets through four games, looking at average separation and catch percentages:
- Baltimore rookie Zay Flowers has started 2023 off strong. He has an impressive 82.8 catch percentage that ranks fourth (85 qualifiers), along with a 3.4 SEP number (14th). This has come on 29 targets, 244 yards, but no touchdowns. The connection has been strong with Jackson, and their improved/healthier room including Odell Beckham Jr. will be a tough test.
The visual highlights issues we’ve seen from Pittsburgh’s most targeted receivers. George Pickens ties Flowers for the most targets in the matchup (T-28th in NFL), but has a below-the-mean 2.4 SEP (64th) and 53.3 catch percentage (67th). Hopefully, both improve, particularly the latter following a seven-target, three-catch performance. Pickens has 263 yards (21st) and a 71-yard touchdown this season, and hopefully, he can get back to this stronger YAC (still ranks fourth) after a painful outing for the passing game last week.
Calvin Austin is also below average in both, with 2.6 SEP (49th) and a 57.1 catch percentage (62nd). He has 143 yards on 21 targets and a 72-yard touchdown, but the same play went for an interception last game. This highlights the predictable and feast/famine results, other elements Pittsburgh will hopefully improve against Baltimore.
Allen Robinson II fares the best in terms of the visual for Pittsburgh, with 3.1 SEP (26th) and a 70.6 catch percentage (22nd). With defenses playing off quite a bit situationally, and focusing on Pickens and Austin, these numbers make sense in my opinion. Robinson also has 108 yards on 16 targets this season.
- TE. This is a key position in my opinion for a couple of reasons. First is Baltimore’s Mark Andrews, who presents several challenges, starting here:
Andrews leads the position through four weeks with three touchdowns, including two last week. Pittsburgh’s plan for him will also be huge. He fares well in several aspects of the game, currently seventh in team air yards despite missing the season opener, eighth in catch percentage (77.8) and yards (160), along with being ninth in YAC (5.3).
Although Pat Freiermuth’s 2023 season has been underwhelming overall (13 targets, 53 yards), he is one of just six TEs to have a multiple-touchdown season thus far. He is unfortunately OUT with the hamstring injury suffered in last week’s game, and will be tough to replace. Connor Heyward has the second-most targets to date, with only five, and Darnell Washington will likely see a role increase after catching his first pass last game.
- Here are OL PFF grades, a huge key with Baltimore getting healthier and two Steelers ruled out (LT Dan Moore and RG James Daniels):
The Ravens have the clear advantage as we’ve grown accustomed to. The strongest individual grade is RT Morgan Moses’ 80.2 RBLK, along with a 75.1 PBLK. Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt will be looking to rebound from a rarely quiet performance against their top-graded lineman. LT Ronnie Stanley played in the season opener and is seemingly set to return this week against EDGE Alex Highsmith, who will hopefully create more havoc as well.
C Tyler Linderbaum missed weeks two and three and has the best-balanced grades on the Ravens’ interior (75.8 PBLK, 71.9 RBLK). RG Kevin Zeitler is their final starter with an above the mean grade (59.1 PBLK) along with a 59.2 RBLK. LG John Simpson has below-average grades in both (59.9 RBLK, 46.0 PBLK). Don’t let the grades fool you, these guards are massive and will be a handful for the Steelers defensive line that has struggled, run defense in particular.
LG Isaac Seumalo has the highest individual grade for Pittsburgh (72.3 PBLK) along with a 58.1 RBLK. The other two with an above the mean grade are RT Chukwuma Okorafor (56.5 RBLK, 54.6 PBLK) and Daniels (62.2 RBLK, 38.7 PBLK), while C Mason Cole is below the mean in both (60.7 RBLK, 29.3 PBLK).
With Moore and Daniels ruled out, LT Broderick Jones and RG Nate Herbig with get the nod. On 55 snaps, most coming last week upon Moore’s injury, Jones has fared better in run blocking (59.5), and will hopefully improve in pass blocking (45.4). Ravens edge Odafe Oweh was ruled OUT, and their highest-graded edge rusher primarily played on the right. Good news for Jones. The bad news is Ravens veteran edge Jadeveon Clowney lines up on both sides and is strong overall including two sacks. Baltimore also has a strong interior d-line, and hopefully, Pittsburgh’s line will step up despite the injuries.
- Here are defenses EPA (expected points added) through week four:
Baltimore’s defense has been one of the most well-rounded units in the NFL, ranking fourth in pass EPA and eighth in run EPA. Not what you want to hear if you’re the struggling Pittsburgh offense. The Steelers’ defense is near the league mean, ranking 14th in pass EPA and 17th in run EPA. Pittsburgh’s defense has been very volatile, with some solid situational play, but also painful moments. Here’s to hoping the Steelers find some consistency in all three phases in hopes of a divisional win.
Opponent Scouting Reports: Offense Defense
Injury Reports: Steelers Ravens
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
