For the final time, my last version of predicting the Pittsburgh Steelers’ initial (key word on that) 53-man roster. How I believe it will look at 4 PM/EST Tuesday. The Steelers have already made an initial round of eight cuts but I don’t think you were expecting me to include DL James Nyamwaya or K B.T. Potter on my 53.
Here’s how I think the dust will settle. And a quick caveat, I’m only including and predicting players currently on the roster. No outsiders, though it’s always possible one or two names are added.
Post-Draft Prediction
Pre-Training Camp Prediction
Pre-Preseason Opener Prediction
Post-Buccaneers Prediction
Post-Bills Prediction
OFFENSE – 24
Quarterbacks (3) – Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph
Analysis: These three are locked and have been the three since Rudolph returned on a one-year deal. Tanner Morgan posed no threat.
Running Backs (3) – Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Anthony McFarland Jr.
Analysis: I’ve been skeptical but McFarland likely did enough Thursday to capture the team’s third running back spot. His work as a kick returner is still limited but the team doesn’t have many other viable options. McFarland should at least the start the year active on the roster and the team will take it from there.
Fullback (0) –
Analysis: No true fullback on the Steelers’ roster this year.
Tight Ends (4) – Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Connor Heyward, Zach Gentry
Analysis: This is where the tough decisions began. Gentry has been passed by Darnell Washington and should be a gameday inactive. His apparent foot injury complicates matters all the more. Still, I think he’s kept as a reserve blocking tight end who won’t dress until there’s an injury. If Washington gets hurt, they need someone to replace that blocking element and Gentry can do that well-enough, even if he’s not a tremendous blocker. His size is rare and they like it against 4-3 fronts.
Wide Receivers (5) – Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson II, Calvin Austin III, Miles Boykin
Analysis: Gunner Olszewski nearly included here. He just gets lost in the numbers game, the 54th player against Gentry’s 53rd spot. He’s not a starting kick or punt returner or slot receiver so what’s his value? He’s had a good summer and works hard. There just isn’t a path for him to make it right now. The top four are locks while Boykin seems very safe.
Offensive Tackles (4) – Broderick Jones, Dan Moore Jr., Chukwuma Okorafor, Dylan Cook
Analysis: Wrestled with the o-line quite a bit. Strongly considered keeping ten offensive linemen but the history simply isn’t there. Go back virtually any season since 2015 and the team has kept either eight or nine. Sometimes, they’ve yo-yo’d vets off and on to deal with injuries (OT Trent Scott an example last season) but that roster maneuvering doesn’t seem as necessary this year.
Cook is going to be the “surprise” keep, though the signs have been there ever since the last day of training camp when he elevated to second-team reps. He’s athletic with sweet feet and is technical with his punch. A really good fit for Pat Meyer’s scheme. A developing tackle isn’t someone you want to expose to waivers and he worked at left guard (which will help replace Kevin Dotson) and looked more comfortable there than you’d expect for a guy who has been a tackle his whole career. Cook has earned this spot.
Offensive Guards (3) – Isaac Seumalo, James Daniels, Nate Herbig
Analysis: Not as much discussion with the three names kept. Herbig is poised to be the top backup at guard and center and it sounds like he’s healthy enough for Week One. His center experience is minimal and getting only nine such snaps this preseason is less than ideal but a small blemish on an otherwise great preseason for the offense. He’s at least been with the team all offseason.
Kevin Dotson remains off the roster. Had there been more history of the team keeping ten, I would’ve done it. Pittsburgh has built up great o-line depth and I think they want to hold onto that. Nothing says they can’t keep ten but nine just feels more likely. Herbig would be first-man in over Dotson if a guard got hurt, Dotson is battling a shoulder injury, and he just isn’t a strong scheme fit. Kendrick Green’s time in Pittsburgh is over.
Centers (2) – Mason Cole, Spencer Anderson
Analysis: Anderson played all five spots this summer and saw more time at guard and right tackle. Herbig will be the immediate backup but I put Anderson here to (hopefully) lessen the number of comments about “Alex, you’re only keeping one center!” Herbig and Anderson are second and third-string options, respectively.
DEFENSE – 26
Defensive Ends (4) – Cam Heyward, Larry Ogunjobi, DeMarvin Leal, Isaiahh Loudermilk
Analysis: I keep flipping and I keep flopping. In the end, I settle on Loudermilk beating out Armon Watts. Loudermilk’s run defense just looked a touch better and Pittsburgh values that more when it comes to their backups. They have other d-line pass rushing options (Heyward, Ogunjobi, Benton, Adams, hopefully Leal) along with a deep EDGE group. But tough calls are made here.
Let’s just hope Larry Ogunjobi’s foot injury truly is minor as Tomlin says it is. His history of lower-body injuries are concerning.
Nose Tackles (3) – Montravius Adams, Keeanu Benton, Breiden Fehoko
Analysis: I’m not wavering with my three-nose tackle idea. Adams’ odds of sticking have seemingly gone up based off Teryl Austin’s comments about Benton missing time and losing out on reps. Adams also only played “starter’s snaps” in the preseason finale, the first seven of the game, which suggests they didn’t need to see much of him.
Fehoko is the controversial one. But the team has talked him up with DL Coach Karl Dunbar saying, “you’ve got to have those guys on your team.” Pittsburgh wants guys who can plug the run to round out their depth chart.
EDGE Rushers (4) – T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Markus Golden, Nick Herbig
Analysis: It’d be an upset to see anything other than these four make the 53. Watt and Highsmith will dominate the snap counts but Golden and Herbig deserve playing time. They’ll get it.
Inside Linebackers (5) – Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts, Kwon Alexander, Mark Robinson, Tanner Muse
Analysis: No alterations here. Muse has been healthy and played enough to beat out Nick Kwiatkoski. The top three names here will rotate throughout the season. This group looks far stronger than a season ago.
Cornerbacks (6) – Patrick Peterson, Levi Wallace, Joey Porter Jr., James Pierre, Chandon Sullivan, Elijah Riley
Analysis: No changes here either…for now. Peterson, Wallace, and Porter are locked in. Sullivan and Riley have enjoyed good summers and should be slot options (Riley more run downs) while Peterson kicks inside in dime and obvious passing situations. Riley should also be a core and strong special teamer, a starting wing, backup upback, and play on the other kick and punt units.
Then we get to James Pierre. I think he makes the initial roster, hence his inclusion. But I will stick my neck out and predict Pierre won’t be a Steeler come Week One. Pittsburgh will replace him with an outside corner not currently on the roster. He’s a fine special teams player but he’s just hard to trust at corner and I think coaches get frustrated with his inconsistent technique and play. A restricted free agent, Pierre wasn’t tendered and only brought back on a cheaper, one-year deal, which partially tells you what they think about him. And his play this summer has been bumpy, camp and preseason action. At some point, the team will pull the plug.
Safeties (4) – Minkah Fitzpatrick, Keanu Neal, Damontae Kazee, Miles Killebrew
Analysis: No changes here. Too little, too late for Tre Norwood, who got healthy for the finale but couldn’t build upon his good first two weeks of camp. Kenny Robinson faded a bit, too, and will try to land on the practice squad. Trenton Thompson is fun to watch and could get added to the practice squad and elevated mid-season.
SPECIAL TEAMS – 3
Kicker (1) – Chris Boswell
Analysis: Boswell was always the guy.
Punter (1) – Pressley Harvin III
Analysis: As of this writing, Braden Mann remains a Steeler despite the team releasing their other two backup specialists. Maybe Pittsburgh will hope for a trade, you can’t rule it out, but Harvin should be the Steelers’ starter.
Long Snapper (1) – Christian Kuntz
Analysis: His competition, Rex Sunahara, has officially been released. But if you’ve followed my camp updates, Kuntz has been in control of this job.
Gameday Inactives: Rudolph (Emergency Third QB Designation), Gentry, Cook, Fehoko, Robinson, Sullivan
PRACTICE SQUAD (16)
RB: Greg Bell, Xazavian Valladay
WR: Dez Fitzpatrick, Aron Cruickshank
TE: Rodney Williams
OC: Ryan McCollum
DL: Jonathan Marshall, Manny Jones
EDGE: Quincy Roche, Toby Ndukwe
ILB: Nick Kwiatkoski
CB: Chris Wilcox, Madre Harper
S: Tre Norwood, Kenny Robinson, Trenton Thompson
Not all of these guys will end up signing and outsiders will be added. I recognize that. Fitzpatrick’s good special teams play nets him a spot while Cruickshank has return value. Williams had a nice summer. McCollum can play center and guard while Marshall showed well in the preseason finale. The outside linebackers could go any number of ways. Kwiatkoski gets to stay close to home while the team likes Wilcox. Safety here looks strong, though it’s probably unrealistic to think all three names will land here.
