As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week Three against the New England Patriots.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Defense Stops Patriots’ Core Concepts
There’s two main things the Steelers’ defense must take away from the Patriots. The first down run game and the first down “shot” plays. New England wants to run the ball with its three-headed attack and play off that by going max protect and taking downfield shots off play-action.
That can be a hard line to walk. Stopping the run is paramount and an area Pittsburgh’s struggled the first two games. But that can’t come at the expense of getting beat over the top when Drake Maye looks to throw downfield. Doing both is difficult but must happen for this defense to take away the Patriots’ strengths and plan.
2. Offense Creates Chunk Plays In Passing Game
On the other end, Pittsburgh’s offense must make big plays. New England has a talented front seven but leaky secondary, especially now that top CB Christian Gonzalez has been ruled out for today’s game. Pittsburgh’s passing game has relied on YAC more than downfield completions. That should change today. DK Metcalf needs to win over the top while Calvin Austin III must show his speed. TE Jonnu Smith has been nothing but an underneath threat. Really, all the tight ends have been. That must change today.
3. Kicker Advantage Rules Again
As we wrote Saturday in our positives of the season, Chris Boswell gives Pittsburgh a clear advantage in every game. New England’s rookie kicker Andres Borregales has been bumpy this season, pushing a 40-yarder wide right and missing a pair of extra points already. The latter came on the road last week but the field goal was in Foxboro. In what’s likely to be a tight game, Boswell could once again prove to be the difference.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Nick Herbig Can’t Step Up
Feels like last year when Nick Herbig was challenged to win against Cincinnati Bengals Orlando Brown Jr. He stepped up and forced a key sack/fumble, a key defensive play in a shootout win. With Alex Highsmith out, Herbig will start and face Patriots’ first-round LT Will Campbell. He’s coming off a great game against the Miami Dolphins and looks like a stud.
Can Herbig beat him? His speed rush could play well against Campbell’s relative lack of length. If Herbig can’t make some noise, and with offensive attention continued on T.J. Watt, the Steelers’ rush will lose its steam. Worth noting DL Cam Heyward must push the pocket better than he has, especially facing a rookie LG in Jared Wilson.
2. Field Position Continues To Be A Struggle
Entering Sunday, New England ranks third in kick return average. Pittsburgh is just 22nd. The Patriots’ numbers are bolstered by a 90-yard kick return touchdown by RB Antonio Gibson last week. The Steelers’ coverage team hasn’t been at its best this year and they’re losing field position because of it.
In Week One, Pittsburgh lost the kick return average battle by 1.9 yards. In Week Two, Pittsburgh lost the kick return average battle by a whopping 6-yards (and that’s not counting Kaleb Johnson’s gaffe). Hidden yardage going in favor of the opponent. That can’t continue.
3. Patriots’ Run Defense Makes Pittsburgh One-Dimensional
Big concern here. Steelers showed small improvements with their running game last week. It’s still far from where it needs to be. New England’s shut down the run two weeks in and present similar strengths the Jets and Seahawks offered. Aggressive, upfield defensive linemen who disrupt the track of the opposing running game. Pittsburgh running wild today isn’t likely to happen. But it can’t be invisible either, or else Aaron Rodgers is going to have to do it all himself again.
Prediction
Patriots: 24
Steelers: 21
Season Prediction Record
1-1
