The defensive line is arguably the Pittsburgh Steelers’ biggest need in the 2025 draft. Today, I wanted to learn and provide info on the class, seeing who makes the most sense for the team from a stat perspective.
This article will examine a couple of important run defense and pass rush metrics. Of course, Pittsburgh needs strengths in both, given how 2024 transpired behind star DL Cam Heyward.
Another important element is scheme fit. I included players that PFF labels as EDGE players but have the 5-tech body type in the Steelers 3-4 system and had snaps on the interior d-line.
Let’s start with run defense. The numbers I chose to look at are stop rate (a failure for the offense – based on successful plays) and missed tackle rate, which were issues for several on the Steelers’ defense, including the position.
Very telling visual. Cam Horsley of Boston College led the group in run-stop rate at 14.4-percent. This impressively led all d-linemen in the FBS (min. 200 run defense snaps), with a strong 4.9 missed tackle rate that ranked 13th out of the 46 qualifying draft prospects. Seemingly a Day-Three possibility that our Joe Clark spoke well of at the Shrine Bowl.
Two players atop many draft position boards land well above average. Michigan’s Mason Graham could go top five/ten, and Walter Nolen of Ole Miss would look great in the Black and Gold, a more realistic projection around their current 21st selection in the first round. They each rank second and third in each stat, respectively.
South Carolina’s DeAndre Jules rounds out the top five stop rates at 11.3, the final plus-ten number, and a respectable 5.9 miss rate (15th). It’s early, but not seeing much buzz on the combine invite.
Junior Tafuna of Utah was the only qualifier with no missed run tackles (210 run snaps), impressively, and an above-average 8.1 stop rate (T-13th). Our Josh Carney spoke highly of him during the Senior Bowl coverage. Seemingly could be acquired late.
Here are other names above the mean in both stats (college/projection):
Cam Jackson (Florida/late), Yahya Black (Iowa/late), Kenneth Grant (Michigan/first), Ty Hamilton (Ohio State/late), Alfred Collins (Texas/day two), T.J. Sanders (South Carolina/day two), Tyleik Williams (Ohio State/first-second), Elijah Simmons (Tennessee/late), Jordan Phillips (Maryland/day two-three), and Darius Alexander (Toledo/day two).
Jackson seems like a late-round candidate. Black has an impressive frame and power. Grant is a massive plugger who has the potential for more. Collins and Sanders are athletic and alignment versatile. Williams is impressive against the run. Simmons is a combine invite and NT-type, Phillips is large/athletic with power, and Alexander is a nice 5-tech Steeler fit.
There are plenty of plus run-defenders at various spots in this deep draft class.
Now let’s look at pass rush, using pass rush win rate and pass rush productivity (factors sacks, hits, hurries, and pass rush snaps). NOTE: Some names won’t appear with tighter plot points.
Different characters toward the top of the pass rush stats. SMU’s Elijah Roberts led the group with a fantastic 22.6 pass rush win rate and second in PRP. He’s versatile, playing most at EDGE last season, but measured at 6032 – 290, likely making him IDL if Pittsburgh was interested. Day Two/Three potentially, and Carney named him a winner in two Shrine Bowl practices.
Tennessee’s Omarr Norman-Lott clearly had the best PRP, the only double-digit mark (12.6). Day Two opinions, with quicks off the snap, per Carney. His PRP does deserve an asterisk with just 143 pass rush snaps, compared to 369 from Roberts, making the latter’s results more impressive.
Two Oregon players had similar PRP, coming in at third and fourth best (9.1, 8.9). Derrick Harmon stacked that with the stronger 17.6 pass rush win rate to boot (fourth). Seems he will cost a first/second rounder, but underwhelmed in the run defense numbers. Fellow Duck Jordan Burch had a 15.7 PRWR that was also solid (sixth). He would be more 4-3 EDGE/3-4 DE per our Tom Mead’s report, while Harmon has more size for IDL.
Third in PRWR is Virginia Tech’s Aeneas Peebles at 17.7-percent, paired with an above the mean 7.2 PRP (T-ninth). Early day three consensus, flashing at the Senior Bowl, but our Jonathan Heitritter noted an apparent lack of arm length. Jared Ivey of Ole Miss completes the top five win rates (16.8), along with a 7.6 PRP (sixth). 3-4 DE potential in Pittsburgh, with some concerns, but made our Ross McCorkle’s watch and winners lists from the event.
Other names above average in both stats (college/projection), bold = run defense too:
Rylie Mills (Notre Dame/third-fourth round), Sai’vion Jones (LSU/day three), T.J. Sanders (South Carolina/day two), Jared Harrison-Hunte (SMU/late), Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M/first-second), Graham (Michigan), Alexander (Toledo), Ty Robinson (Nebraska/day three), Tonka Hemingway (South Carolina/late), Nolen (Ole Miss), Vernon Broughton (Texas/day three), CJ West (Indiana/day three), Deone Walker (Kentucky/day two).
Mills would fit, but a concern is a knee injury. Jones was more disruptive than productive, per Heitritter. Sanders is a safe, quality, and versatile DL. Harrison-Hunte impressed Melanie Friedlander at the Shrine Bowl. Stewart is a better 4-3 EDGE fit, per Mead.
Robinson resembles former Steeler Aaron Smith, per our Jim Hester. Hemingway is a Shrine DL that Carney and Clark enjoyed. Broughton lacks pass-rush upside. West impressed our crew at the Shrine Bowl. Walker earned a Javon Hargrave comp from our Nate Kosko.
CONCLUSION:
This deep class of d-linemen offers a ton to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who must address the position. A few names stand out above the rest in terms of balanced stat production this season. Michigan’s Mason Graham and Walter Nolen (Ole Miss), in particular, and Toledo’s Darius Alexander, the only other above-the-mean player across the board.
Barring an extreme trade-up, Graham is unlikely to be on the Steelers’ board. Nolen is the name I’m hoping is there if Pittsburgh pulls the trigger in round one. If not, Alexander is projected to go on Day Two and fits Pittsburgh like a glove. Level of competition at Toledo is an asterisk, but impressed at the Senior Bowl, thankfully.
SMU’s Elijah Roberts, Jared Ivey (Ole Miss), and South Carolina’s T.J. Sanders round out the top five in the cumulative stats. They all had plus pass rush ranks but had average to slightly below factors to their run defense. It’s not the best news for what Pittsburgh needs, which, of course, gets much more difficult in the NFL.
With that in mind, yet to be mentioned were some enormous men who fared strong against the run. Michigan’s Cam Jackson and Yahya Black are the two names that stuck out most statistically. As we sit here today, they seem to be late-round prospects if the Steelers want to double-dip.
I could go on about all the talent in this year’s draft class, but this is the group I hope the Steelers are taking an extremely hard look at. Here’s to hoping Pittsburgh cashes in with a solid draft to strengthen the defensive line position.
