Assumptions About Free Agency
Please remember: Dave Bryan has done the numbers work, and we can feel comfortable that Pittsburgh will go into free agency with around $50-55 million of cap space for free agent signings. This is usable room, after accounting for rookies and space fillers, and without restructuring any current deals. Something like an extension for T.J. Watt would increase that noticeably, as would deals that are structured to move the cap impact into future years.
- CAP CASUALTIES.
EDGE Preston Smith
DT Larry Ogunjobi
ILB Cole Holcomb
RB Cordarrelle Patterson
DT Dean Lowry - O-LINE: Dan Moore Jr departs at OT. OG James Daniels hits free agency, finds a cool reception because of his injury, and signs a one-year “prove it” deal for something like the $7 million he earned during the last contract. Calvin Anderson or another veteran swing tackle is signed on a cheap deal to provide depth..
- QB: Justin Fields will be the starter with a veteran backup. Fields earns a base best-in-the-league backup money with a front-loaded, 3-4 year contract to reduce the 2025 cap hit. The deal also includes some unusual (for Pittsburgh) incentive bonuses to give Fields average starter money if he starts to look like the long-term solution.
- RB: Najee Harris will depart. Jaylen Warren will be re-signed. Veteran minimum depth will be added just in case, but everyone will prioritize one or two of this year’s incredible RB class as a Round 1-4 draft target.
- DT (Medium Splash): How about…27-year-old Levi Onwuzurike on a 2-3 year deal to replace Larry Ogunjobi. They are both natural 3-techs who play a penetration-based game rather than looking like the normal Steelers DE. But Levi is in his prime, and Larry has passed it.
- WR (Almost-Big Splash): A 1.B like Christian Kirk or a solid WR2 like Darius Slayton. Maybe an aging WR1 like Amari Cooper (turns 31 in June), but only if it’s reasonable to predict he has three more years.
- CB (Almost-Big Splash): The Steelers hire Carlton Davis III, a 29-year-old vet with good size who can mentor Joey Porter Jr. and Cory Trice Jr.
Do the math and you’ll see that’s viable, especially since the team needs to spend extra cash this year because of the salary cap rules. Bottom line: Pittsburgh will go into the draft with no big hole on its roster except RB, and can take an almost pure, long-term BPA approach.
THE PICKS
Round 1 – DT Tyleik Williams, Ohio State. 6-3, 325 lbs. with long arms (guessing about 33½”)
Tyleik Williams and Kenneth Grant are the highest-graded NTs in the draft, and they share a similar profile. They stuff the middle extremely well, make pass-rush contributions in the form of collapsing the pocket from the inside out, and have enough technical flaws to make stardom a legitimate dream.
I would personally prefer the similarly graded Derrick Harmon, who’d be a classic Steelers DE in the Stephon Tuitt mold. Then I’d circle back for one of the several very appealing NT prospects in the Round 3-4 group such as JJ Pegues, Jamaree Caldwell, Jordan Phillips, or Yahya Black. But in this mock, I’m going with the big guy first on the theory that Keeanu Benton has positional flexibility, and signing Levi Onwuzurike has provided a designated inside pass rusher. Besides, I want to see how it turns out.
| DT Tyleik Williams, Ohio St. (Senior). 6-3, 325 lbs. with __” arms and __” hands. Born Feb. 24, 2003 (21 years old). Williams is an extremely solid IDL who wins with a power game supported by surprisingly good movement skills. He possesses top level run stuffing talent. The pass rush, however, has a ton of “almost there” pressures, and too little in the way of sacks that closed the deal. Does he have the foot speed to track down ordinary QBs? Williams’ technique is very good for college, but he will learn a lot more once he’s a pro, and may have room to improve through physical training alone. If Captain Cam has no extra weight, why should the incoming rookie? It all adds up to a solid floor with a lot of room to improve, and a cartoon summary along these lines: Definitely what you want in a two-down run stuffer, and he won’t embarrass himself on checks into a passing play, but can he ever be more? Alex Kozora’s Depot scouting report sums Williams up as “an impressive prospect [who is] great against the run, athletic for his frame, and has consistent and solid tape. He’s unlikely to be a high-end pass rusher and best on early downs, but he’s certainly capable of playing in sub-packages.” The 33rd Team scouting report from Kyle Crabbs has some good analysis worth a full read. “Williams is a player who, in the right environment, could see everything snap into place and become a draft steal… [but who] never really made “the leap” at Ohio State… Williams is a disruptive run defender who offers a squatty build, effective length, and active hands… History of impressive explosiveness within the Ohio State S&C program… Williams has some upside as a pass rusher thanks to pleasant quickness for his stature, but he’s likely a rotational player early on run downs with a chance to further develop a pass rush prowess to command snaps down the line.” This goes to the late January PFN scouting profile, which offers an opinion that “Beyond his all-around, alignment-diverse run utility, Williams is also an exciting pass rusher. He can be used as a battering ram on stunts with his explosiveness, mass, and power, but he also has the active hands to win 1-on-1 and pry his way through gaps.” The flashes are real. |
Also considered: DL Kenneth Grant, DE Walter Nolen, DE Derrick Harmon (already taken), WR Matthew Golden, S/CB Malaki Starks, and CB/S Jahdae Barron.
Round 2 (#52 overall) – WR Elic Ayomanor, Stanford (RS Sophomore). 6-2, 210 lbs.
Behold the value of free agency! Before those moves, the Steelers would have had major holes to fill at QB, WR, CB, and RB, with wants along the OL and a double dip DT. Now? Not a need in sight. We can pick for long-term investment alone.
Arthur Smith’s offense does just fine with only two primary receivers, but we saw it sputter with just one, and I worry about longer-term depth even if Roman Wilson hits since George Pickens and Calvin Austin III will both be free agents in 2026. I also have little doubt that Smith will easily tweak his approach to accommodate a tough, physical WR who blocks. Enter Elic Ayomanor, one of my true draft crushes.
| WR Elic Ayomanor, Stanford (RS Soph.). 6-2, 210 lbs. with __” arms and __” hands. Born Dec. __, 2003 (22 years old). [PCL tear in high school; ACL/MCL tear in 2022]. The Canadian-born Ayomanor has all the size, physicality, hands, quick feet, blocking skill, and team-first attitude you could ever want, and he approaches the game like a pro. The only real flaw is the lack of a superpower. Ayomanor is an excellent all-around athlete even for the NFL; he just isn’t the genius deep threat who can overwhelm an opponent with mutant size or speed. Jim Hester’s Depot scouting report compares Ayomanor to Keenan Allen as a healthy-sized prospect who “already looks and plays like a professional [even though] his journey to this point was filled with significant hurdles and victories.” Fair enough, but I also have no trouble seeing him in a No. 86 Steelers jersey. Good CBs typically look forward to testing themselves against an ultimate talent like George Pickens. Elic Ayomanor is the kind of player they don’t look forward to because the SOB gets as much of a kick out of beating them up as he does of out winning the route. Can you tell I’m a fan? Kyle Crabbs late January scouting profile puts it this way: “Elic Ayomanor is a tone-setter. He’s one of the most intense studies of the draft class [and shows] just how physical and urgent play [can be] at the wide receiver position. It’s impressive watching him dictate terms to defenders in all phases, be it at the top of a route stem, at the catch point, or as a run blocker… [He] can win on the outside… [but] if he’s afforded opportunities in the slot, he could be in for a big impact early in his pro career, and he would be an incredible foil for speed receivers in a wide receiver room.” This February Bleacher Report scouting profile (Round 2) notes that Ayomanor is “a good but not a great athlete… [who is savvy… [and has] outstanding body control… [but needs to clear up some] hand catching mechanics.” The late January PFN scouting profile concludes that “Year 1 might not be pretty for Ayomanor, but the ceiling is high for him down the line. Though I would not say he’s polished enough to be a first-round pick, his combination of size, youth, production, play strength, and speed give him upside that’s worth betting on in Day 2.” This somewhat poetic scouting profile (“chiseled from stone”) ends in a Round 1 grade. |
Also considered: WR Jayden Higgins, WR Jack Bech, WR Xavier Restrepo, WR Savion Williams, WR Jaylin Noel, and WR Jalen Royals.
Round 3 (#83 overall) – RB Devin Neal, Kansas (Senior). 5-10, 210 lbs. Born Oct. 22, 2022 (22 years old).
My research to date has turned up something like 30 draftable RBs. Maybe even a few more! It’s historic. But despite that volume I’ll bet here and now that 10 or more will get picked in Round 3.
There’s only one surefire, Round-1 genius: Ashton Jeanty. Then there are maybe four to six who are all but certain to get picked in the top 75: Omarion Hampton, Kaleb Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, and a few maybes. Then comes a massive set of something like 15 prospects I will end up giving Round 3-5 (picks 75-175). The Steelers pick at #83 falls right toward the beginning of that run, #122 in the middle, and #163 right at the end. So Round 3 is the place to get a favorite, Round 4 to grab a bargain, and Round 5 to get a steal if you truly think they’re fungible.
Devin Neal is a favorite of mine and has been from the very start. He’s big enough to withstand an NFL pounding, fast enough to hit home runs, classy enough to step into the large shoes left by Najee Harris, and he would fit just as well in all variations of the “whatever works” approach I have seen from Arthur Smith and Pat Meyer. I can make arguments for several other backs, and will in future mocks, but in this post I’ll go with the hometown hero from Kansas.
N.B. It’s extremely tempting to bypass RB at this point on the argument that “someone is bound to fall because the class is so epically deep.” That works to beat a simulator. Granted. But in real life I think the position is too vital to treat it like a game. I would rather get my guy and then move on.
| RB Devin Neal, Kansas (Senior). 5-10¾, 220 lbs. with 30” arms and 8¾” hands. Born Aug. 12, 2003 (21 years old). Quick story. I focused on Devin Neal in early January because the description looked exactly like what Pittsburgh wants. Good size, with a history of durability and the ability to take over a game – like he did in a 41-carry game where he singlehandedly outscored the vaunted Colorado football team led by Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. My problem was simple. Neal played a lot of snaps in college, was reported to be 215 lbs., and the way he moved convinced me he was probably closer to 200. Enter the Senior Bowl, where he weighed in at 220 and looked every bit as good. The critique would be that Neal’s very good at everything but short of great in all of it with the possible exception of short-area quickness. Speed, vision, burst, agility, contact balance, play strength, receiving ability, etc. are all “just” excellent rather than gape-worthy. Production too (4,200 yards in his career). But the kicker for me is this: he’s also been described a team leader who is “soft-spoken and professional.” Alex Kozora’s Depot scouting report (strong Round 3 grade) ends by saying, “For a Pittsburgh team that likes its running backs to have size but could be looking for explosiveness in Arthur Smith’s zone system, Neal provides both. He’s a true slashing zone runner who reminds me of Devin Singletary. But that profile doesn’t perfectly align. My NFL comp will land on D’Andre Swift.” This goes to a fairly balanced December scouting profile, which says “The attribute that holds Neal back the most is his general lack of physicality. He’s somewhat undersized [N.B. Not according to the Senior Bowl scale], and it shows often on inside runs [N.B. to my eye fair]..,,and doesn’t have true breakaway wheels to function as a speed threat.” See also this December profile from Vikings Wire. |
Also considered: a friggin’ slew of RBs too long to list, QB Jaxson Dart, G/T Wyatt Milum, CB Quincy Riley, CB Zy Alexander, and several DE prospects.
Round 4 (#122 overall) – DT Aeneas Peebles, Virginia Tech. (RS Senior). 6-0⅜, 289 lbs. with 31¾” arms.
This one’s emphatically not a prediction. I’m putting the name out there for the sake of prompting some discussion about the future of Pittsburgh’s defensive line.
Everyone nodded sagely when Andy Weidl came over from Philadelphia, because we wanted our team to focus on building the trenches. I.e., what Weidl had helped the Eagles do. The first two years have seen massive OL investments, including two Round 1 picks with a total of three selections (Round 1, 2, and 4) in 2024. The d-line? Not so much. Keeanu Benton, who has flashed and seems to be improving, but that’s about it.
Enter 2025. This is the strongest year for defensive linemen that I can remember. Yes, it lacks the sort of top 10 super talents that Philly found in Jalen Carter. This year’s class “merely” has a group of 20-25(!) young men who deserve to be picked in the top 150. Ten would be a more typical number.
I hope and believe the trenches-obsessed Weidl/Khan team will try to double dip into this pool in 2025. But here at pick #122 we are getting close to the end of the list. It’s time to act!
As noted above, I foresee a minor logjam of high-floor, high-potential, NTs in early Day 3. That is why I would prefer to pick a Steelers-typical DE in the early rounds and then to circle back. But what’s done is done. In this mock the team went with a Round 1 NT, and I now need to look for someone who fits the Steelers’ DE specifications: 6-5ish, 290-310 lbs., with extra-long arms. And in Round 4 that describes… [crickets]. A dilemma! Have I lost my chance to double dip?
Apparently. But maybe not. There are many ways to win in the NFL. Pittsburgh has relied on that “5-tech who can penetrate” archetype for very good schematic reasons that many fans choose to ignore. That is the player profile you want – need – for a modern hybrid defense that wants to keep its best players on the field for most of the game, using their flexible talents to keep the offense guessing about what the DL will do on any given play. Who will 2-gap? Who will 1-gap? What does that mean for how the ILBs will play?
The Weidl/Roseman Eagles, however, took a different approach. They selected DLs in bulk, relying on waves of good role players rather than hoping to get the 40-60 snaps per game that greats like Cam Heyward provide. Jalen Carter was the Eagles’ only do-it-all guy in 2024. The rest of the defensive linemen played more like 20-30 snaps per game. But they did so with a variety of player profiles for the coordinator to mix and match as the opponent and situation required.
At this point in our mock draft the Steelers have the following rotation: all-purpose DE Heyward, smallish DE Onwuzurike, high-potential NT/DE Benton, and high-potential NT Tyleik Williams. Aeneas Peebles could be cartooned as a condensed and even more explosive version of Onwuzurike; a penetrating play-disruptor who’s really good at just the one trick. Not a fit if you want to continue the Steelers’ tricky method of mixing up the DL attack without changing the personnel. Everyone knows what Peebles will do. It’s just hard to stop. But if the defense adopts a more mix-and-match approach based on personnel groupings rather than player flexibility…see where I’m going?
Read the description below and then share your thoughts in the comments. I don’t really expect Peebles to be here at Pick #122, but it’s plausible enough to put some meat on the bones of a discussion we ought to have.
| DT Aeneas Peebles (RS Senior). 6-0⅜, 289 lbs. with 31¾” arms and 10” hands. Born Sep. 3, 2001 (23 years old). Aeneas Peebles is fun, regardless of how you think he’d fit in Pittsburgh. Look at that build again. He’s about 5” shorter than a typical Pittsburgh DL, and just about the same weight. A walking, ironwood stump, with strength to match the mass and pad level to match the build. Now add a motor that would frighten wolverines and one of the best get-offs in CFB. What do you get? Someone who (a) burrows through gaps with enormous speed and leverage, (b) constantly blows up plays with stupid amounts of penetration, and (c) is very hard to move because he’s the low man. What can’t he do? 2-gap. Peebles is a penetrator; a human church key for prying open offensive lines, and (unlike your Heyward/Tuitt prototypes) his opponents will always know what he’s going to do. That’s a part-time player for the Steelers unless (a) he matures into Aaron Donald, or (b) the team uses an extra roster spot to build a DL rotation of players with various skill sets. This goes to the Draft Network scouting profile, which uses phrases like these: “Wildly disruptive… elite center of gravity… great technique… the kind of defensive lineman I want on my team…a game-wrecker [with] a compact, stocky frame with a heavy mid-body and tree-trunk legs… the ideal penetrating disrupter [whose] get-off is downright elite, but his ability to get his feet in the ground before contact is special… a force multiplier for an IDL room… Violent, tenacious, and technically savvy, Aeneas Peebles is your favorite team’s favorite IDL.” It’s enough to make you wish the Steelers were a 4-3 team. This Pro Football Focus article on top draft sleepers notes that “Peebles has been the nation’s most efficient pass rusher at the defensive tackle position over the last two years.” |
Also considered: QB Tyler Shough, various OL prospects, and available Nickel DBs.
Round 5 – CB Jacob Parrish, Kansas St. (Junior). 5-9⅞, 196 lbs.
Bringing in Carlton Davis III as a premium free agent settles Pittsburgh’s defensive perimeter, especially with the chance that Cory Trice Jr. could mature into something special. There are only one or two gaps left to address. Even with Minkah Fitzpatrick and DeShon Elliott, the Steelers have only two solid safeties and will need to rely on Beanie Bishop Jr. for coverage out of the slot. This selection would add a prospect who can do a bit of both.
Some future mock will see me picking one of this year’s excellent hybrid CB/SAF/STAR prospects in Round 1 or 2; someone like nominal CB Jahdae Barron, or nominal safeties Malaki Starks, Nick Emmanwori, Malachi Moore, and Xavier Watts. Here in Round 5 that kind of multiple skill set gets very rare.
Jacob Parrish is a slot CB who’d come at it from more of an off/zone angle than Beanie Bishop’s COD-oriented man coverage skill set. This pick, plus high-quality cover-ILB snaps from Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson, should help fill those final holes of the defensive net.
| CB Jacob Parrish, Kansas St. (Junior). 5-9⅞, 196 lbs. with 31¼” arms and 8⅞” hands. Born April ___, 2004 (20 years old). Could this be the slot CB we wanted? How much bigger or better is he than Beanie Bishop Jr.? Good special teams chops raise the floor. This decent-looking scouting profile concludes that “Parrish has the makings of a starting NFL corner and could succeed immediately in a zone-heavy scheme. His off-coverage skills are extremely solid, but he will definitely need to improve his physical technique to survive in isolated coverage on the outside. He defends the run well enough as well to be considered an all-around CB prospect and should become a quality starter in a short time.” The NFL Draft Buzz scouting profile says that Parrish is “best suited for a defense that emphasizes pattern-matching concepts from off coverage, where his processing speed and explosive breaks can shine.” |
Also considered S Sebastian Castro, a developmental T/G to be identified, or one of the power-oriented RBs.
Round 7.A, 7.B, and the disputed 7.C – QB Tyler Shough and TE Gunnar Helm
Sorry folks, but I’m still not deep enough into the class to come up with Round 7 picks who I like and also think could be there. One has to know one’s limits, and I’ve passed them already. So here are two names I do NOT think will be around, but who (a) deserve some deeper looks from Steelers Depot draftniks, and (b) have preliminary big board entries that I think are fun. Enjoy.
| QB Tyler Shough (“Shuck”), Louisville by way of Texas Tech and Oregon (7-year RS Senior). 6-5, 225 lbs. with __” arms and __” hands. Born Sep. 28, 1999 (25 years old). [2021 broken collarbone, 2022 broken collarbone, 2023 broken fibula (ankle bone)] The upside: excellent size, easy NFL arm talent, tremendous mobility, and a full slate of college experience under expert QB developers. That’s a lot! Why isn’t this Tyler Shough in the Round 1-2 conversation? First comes that long list of season-ending injuries, all of which occurred before halfway through the season. And second there is the age concern. Shough has been around long enough to be Justin Herbert’s backup at Oregon! Other than that? The cognoscenti say he is.
The buzz is building! Shough was voted as the best practice QB at the Senior Bowl. That sent respected analysts like Louis Riddick and Todd McShay into the film room, from which they emerged with “Steal Of The Draft!” narratives. The expansive PFN scouting profile from the same time period puts it bluntly: “Shough could be a high second-round pick, and one could argue he deserves to be in the same conversation as [Cam] Ward and [Shedeur] Sanders. However, his talent cannot be evaluated in isolation… External factors, such as his age and injury history, play a significant role in his draft stock.” This gif-supported, Vikings-oriented scouting report agrees on the Day 2 grade and the QB3/4 position for this year’s draft class, despite some well-argued frustration about Shough’s field vision and tendency to check things down too quickly. |
| TE Gunnar Helm, Texas (Senior). 6-4⅝, 250 lbs. with __” arms and __” hands. Born Sep. 6, 2002 (22 years old). As Sir Gandalf Draftgeek said, “The room is full; you shall not pass.” Which is a shame, because Helm is a good, solid player. As Tom Mead’s Depot scouting report concludes, Helm simply needs to make small improvements on all the many details of the TE craft, from play strength to route running and hand placement as a blocker. Nevertheless, “Helm is a good prospect and seems to have the work ethic to get even better. His hands are really impressive and the more time he gets as a blocker [the more] he will improve. He has scheme flexibility and potential to be a TE1 with a year or two of experience.” |
CONCLUSION
- FREE AGENCY: QB Justin Fields
- FREE AGENCY: Arguable WR1 like Christian Kirk, or a strong WR2 like Darius Slayton
- FREE AGENCY: Starting DT Levi Onwuzurike to replace Larry Ogunjobi
- FREE AGENCY: Starting CB Carlton Davis III
- ROUND 1: DT Tyleik Williams, Ohio State
- ROUND 2: WR Elic Ayomanor, Stanford
- ROUND 3: RB Devin Neal, Kansas
- ROUND 4: DT Aeneas Peebles, Virginia Tech
- ROUND 5: CB Jacob Parrish, Kansas State
- ROUND 7A: entertainment entry for QB Tyler Shough (the big riser to know about)
- ROUND 7B: entertainment entry for TE Gunnar Helm (because it amuses me)
- ROUND 7C: Omitted because I cannot confirm that it exists
