With the 2024 regular season in the books, I wanted to provide a favorite stat at Steelers Depot: Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A). ANY/A is Passing yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked). In case you’re new to the stat, it has predicted all but one Super Bowl Winner since 2000.
For in depth takeaways earlier this season, check out these ANY/A articles:
2024 ANY/A Stats Week 1
2024 ANY/A Stats Week 4
2024 ANY/A Stats Week 7
2024 ANY/A Stats Week 10
2024 ANY/A Stats Week 13
2024 ANY/A Stats Week 16
Here are past seasons as well:
2023 ANY/A Regular Season Rankings
2022 ANY/A Regular Season Rankings
2021 ANY/A Regular Season Rankings
Here is a visual of offenses and defenses ANY/A for the 2024 regular season (playoff teams = darker logos):
This visual allows us to see every playoff teams strengths and weaknesses heading into the postseason alongside the rest of the NFL. All 14 playoff teams have an above the mean number on either side of the ball.
The craziest thing that jumps out to me is the Baltimore Ravens 9.3 OANY/A, over a full point stronger than any other offense this season, with the Detroit Lions second-best mark coming in at 8.1. That is the scary task the Pittsburgh Steelers face on Saturday night, a daunting challenge to begin the postseason.
For more perspective, the best offense in 2023 were the San Francisco 49ers (8.6), 7.9 Kansas City Chiefs in 2022, and the Green Bay Packers at 7.6 in 2021. In fact, Baltimore’s 9.3 OANY/A is the third-best mark since 2000 and likely longer. The only teams that were better were the 2004 Indianapolis Colts led by QB Peyton Manning (9.6), and 2011 Packers with Aaron Rodgers (9.4).
This adds more context to how much better Baltimore’s passing attack has become. Pittsburgh learned the hard way in the last matchup, a Week 16 34-17 defeat. That flipped the script to the majority of low scoring slugfests between the rivals over the years, and how it transpired the first time this season, when the Steelers etched the 18-16 victory.
Seems forever ago, prior to the four-game losing streak they’re aiming to end, when Pittsburgh was playing great complimentary football. They are preaching short-term memory, with no time to dwell on these painful losses in preparation for the playoffs, and Baltimore. You better learn from that Week 16 throttling though, or the embarrassment will continue with another embarrassing early playoff exit and disappointing end to the 2024-25 season.
Speaking of embarrassment, another team that walloped the Steelers led the league on the defensive side, the Philadelphia Eagles, who won 27-13 in Week 15 which started Pittsburgh’s horrible losing skid. The Eagles posted a 4.8 DANY/A this year, with the second place Minnesota Vikings coming in at 5.1. So, not the huge gap we saw in OANY/A, and several teams posting better marks since 2000.
This included several Super Bowl winning teams in that span, including both Championship Steelers squads, in a different era than today’s pass happy league. Pittsburgh’s 2009 defense had a 3.2 DANY/A, second-best among any Super Bowl winner since 2000, only to the 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers elite 2.3 DANY/A. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin was a defensive backs coach at the time for that outstanding unit.
Unfortunately, Pittsburgh’s 2024 numbers are stale in comparison to all the previously mentioned squads. On the season, the Steelers finished with a 6.2 OANY/A that tied for 13th, and 5.7 DANY/A that landed seventh. Not terrible, compared to a 5.6 OANY/A (21st) and 5.8 DANY/A (T-13th) in 2023, and 5.0 OANY/A (27th) and 5.9 DANY/A (T-15th) in 2022.
So, improvements across the board the last few years, particularly on offense is encouraging.
But looking at 2024’s weekly offensive results paint a different picture recently:
We can clearly see that OANY/A has directly correlated to the Steelers losing streak, with four-straight games below the ideal 6.5 number (blue line). Since QB Russell Wilson took over in Week 7, that occurred just two other times, in two games post-bye. Otherwise, he had encouraging passing outings that led to a 4-1 record in five above the line games, as opposed to 2-4 when below-average.
Most of those were against tough competition, compared to a much more favorable schedule when he performed well, adding context to when things felt great and the recent pain Pittsburgh is enduring. It certainly won’t get any easier in January football. Hopefully we finally see Wilson step up against tougher competition, starting with the Ravens who kept him below the line in both outings this season.
If not, it could be yet another one-and-done playoff experience, extending the Steelers drought of not winning a postseason game since 2016. Hopefully it’s a hungry and focused group that is ready to soar after two particularly bad passing and offensive outings to end the year. Scoring no more than 17 points amid their losing streak would also be aided in their goals of making noise in the tournament.
Here are the weekly numbers:
Week 1 vs. ATL (Justin Fields): 5.32
Week 2 vs. DEN: 5.91
Week 3 vs. LAC: 6.09
Week 4 vs. IND: 7.95
Week 5 vs. DAL: 5.17
Week 6 vs. LV: 4.07
Week 7 vs. NYJ (Russell Wilson): 10.0
Week 8 vs. NYG: 8.72
Week 9: BYE
Week 10 vs. WAS: 6.03
Week 11 vs. BAL: 3.4
Week 12 vs. CLE: 8.38
Week 13 vs. CIN: 10.63
Week 14 vs. CLE: 6.93
Week 15 vs. PHI: 5.29
Week 16 vs. BAL: 5.36
Week 17 vs. KC: 2.79
Week 18 vs. CIN: 3.97
Here are defenses weekly results:
Right away we see the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense was good for large portions of the season. But they fell off the cliff when in the first three games of the losing streak against Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Kansas City. Being at or below six is the ideal mark for postseason success. Those games were a far cry from it, all numbers larger than eight.
Seeing the Ravens as one of these teams, imposing their will on Pittsburgh’s defense who allowed an 8.88 ANY/A in the last Week 16 game, is of course concerning. The following KC matchup was even worse, with QB Patrick Mahomes and company posting a 10.0 ANY/A. Considering many have these two teams as potential Super Bowl winners, not the results you want to see from Pittsburgh’s defense, who fuel the teams success (or failure) typically.
The Steelers defense encouragingly held their weight against the soaring Cincinnati Bengals passing offense in the 19-17 finale, though a 4.42 DANY/A wasn’t enough to secure victory, unfortunately. Optimistically, Pittsburgh’s defense can have a similar outing in their Super Wildcard game against Baltimore, who’ve been on another level.
Pittsburgh does have an encouraging track record against them, along with a better 5.14 DANY/A than the more recent Week 16 8.88 debacle. Hopefully that more successful history repeats itself on defense, while the offense really needs to step it up after being a consistently poor unit the last four losses.
Here are the weekly numbers:
Week 1 vs. ATL: 2.39
Week 2 vs. DEN: 3.81
Week 3 vs. LAC: 6.45
Week 4 vs. IND: 6.93
Week 5 vs. DAL: 6.5
Week 6 vs. LV: 4.71
Week 7 vs. NYJ: 4.98
Week 8 vs. NYG: 4.57
Week 9: BYE
Week 10 vs. WAS: 4.92
Week 11 vs. BAL: 5.14
Week 12 vs. CLE: 6.21
Week 13 vs. CIN: 7.07
Week 14 vs. CLE: 3.32
Week 15 vs. PHI: 8.86
Week 16 vs. BAL: 8.88
Week 17 vs. KC: 10.0
Week 18 vs. CIN: 4.42
To close, here’s a table of the 2024 ANY/A results, sorted by differential with the goal of showing the most balanced teams. Team names highlighted in green are playoff teams:
Here we see that all 14 playoff teams rank in the top half of the league in ANY/A differential, yet again hammering home the importance of the stat. Friendly reminder, only one Super Bowl winner since 2000 has had a negative differential. Thanks to their stellar offensive number, Baltimore has the bragging rights of the strongest 3.2 differential, a full point above Detroit at 2.2.
In comparison, Pittsburgh has a 0.5 ANY/A differential, ranking 12th in the NFL in 2024. Largely, that’s quite good overall compared to recent seasons: 2023 (-0.2, 18th), 2022 (-0.9, T-23rd), 2021 (-0.4, T-21st). Prior to their four-game losing streak to end the 2024 season, Pittsburgh was a top-ten unit as well. It’s time to get back to that, and prove they can perform that way against the NFLs best teams, which they were unable to do to end the year.
Knock on wood that’s the case against Baltimore, and hopefully beyond.
