In anticipation to the Super Bowl this coming Sunday, I wanted to look at a historical view of the Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A) stat which is (Passing yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked) for NFL offenses and defenses during the regular season. Last year I provided a similar historical view where I highlighted several of the top teams in detail if you’d link to check that link out. This time around, I wanted to take a slightly different angle with this years Super Bowl participants included to see how they stack up:
Starting with the teams set to duel for the title this Sunday, we see the Philadelphia Eagles had the stronger balance on both sides of the ball in 2023. They were actually only one of only four that were above average in both in the time frame with a 7.2 OANY/A and a 4.4 DANY/A that was their better ranking at eighth. Philadelphia joins a stellar group that includes the 2014 Seahawks “Legion of Boom”, 2000 Rams “Greatest Show on Turf”, and the 2011 Packers that of course topped the Steelers in their third and final Super Bowl appearance in the era. Pittsburgh’s two Super Bowl titles sported stronger defenses, particularly in 2009 with a 3.2 DANY/A that impressively tied for second best amongst this group of elites.
The Kansas City Chiefs look to hoist their second trophy in four years, and as you’d expect fare well on the offensive side of the ball. Their 7.9 OANY/A ties for fifth, topped by only the 2017 Patriots, themselves in 2020, the 2000 Rams, and the 2010 Saints, with the 2007 Colts matching their result. Kansas City’s 5.8 DANY/A is one of the lowest this century, tying with the 2017 Patriots, 2021 Buccaneers, and 2019 Patriots while only topping the 2012 Giants and 2015 Patriots. It is notable that many of these lower DANY/A results have come more recently, highlighting the shift to a more offensive game largely speaking, with only two teams having a below average OANY/A since 2010.
That is the big question for this matchup, will the more well-rounded team on paper during the regular season come out on top, or will the pass happy era and more experienced quarterback win the duel? I personally am a sucker for the more rounded squad in ultimate team game, but when that one player at the all-important position is Patrick Mahomes it’s a tough call. I’m going with the Eagles.
To close, here is a table view of the data ranking the teams by ANY/A differential:
Both the Eagles and Chiefs land in the upper half of the historical table in ANY/A differential, with Philadelphia ranking eighth at 2.8 and Kansas City landing 12th and just above average at 2.1. Very interesting to see where the Steelers teams land in comparison and the era in general.
What are some of your takeaways from the data? Who is your pick to win this year’s Super Bowl? Hope you enjoy what should be a great game and let me know your thoughts in the comments!