The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) are coming off a divisional win against the Cincinnati Bengals. The same can’t be said for their previous outing, falling to the Cleveland Browns in Week 12. That game will be my focus today, seeing what we can glean from the 24-19 defeat, and how to hopefully turn things around for Week 14 revenge.
Let’s dive into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – Cleveland’s Jameis Winston has been key to some positive strides for their offense. In Week 12’s first matchup, he went 18-of-27 (66.7 completion rate) for 219 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception (CB Donte Jackson).
In comparison, Steeler Russell Wilson’s 21-of 28 (75.0 completion rate, 270 yards, one TD and no INTs were stronger across the board in these stats. Edge Pittsburgh, who will hopefully have the stronger passing attack once again.
The QBs were strong in certain metrics in Week 12, including average air yard differential (completed – intended air yards) and completion percent above expected:
Winston had an NFL best 0.56 average air yard differential, meaning his completed air yard number was greater than his intended air yards. For context, only two quarterbacks achieved that in Week 12.
Looking at Winston’s Next Gen Stats passing chart, we see the majority of his incompletions came at ten air yards or less. 6/9 past ten yards, including his INT, and just two 20-plus air yard attempts.
If history repeats, short and intermediate should be Pittsburgh’s focus, limiting the intermediate/explosive connection, while continuing to create splash as always.
Comparing the Steelers Passing Charts: Week 12 Vs. Browns, we see that it was either short or deep overall. 18 passes at ten yards or less, and eight past ten yards. Just one intermediate air yard pass (11), and the other seven were at 25-plus air yards.
Wilson has been good at taking what the defense gives him, but would like to see him attack the intermediate range if it presents itself like the Bengals win. That could make things tougher for Cleveland’s defense, and a stronger air yard differential that was -1.6, ranking 14th (26 qualifiers, min. 15 attempts in Week 12).
Last game, Wilson had an NFL-best 21.2 completion percent above expected. That is a whopping number, the only one of 20-plus, with second place coming in at 12.3. Wow. Added impressiveness were the snow game elements. Winston had a -0.06 completion percent above expected (15th).
The condition look to to be better on Sunday, and hopefully, Pittsburgh’s pass game wins out again in Week 14.
RUNNING BACKS – Brown Nick Chubb was their clear leader in attempts (20), held to 59 yards by the Steelers defense (3.0 yards per attempt). Steeler Najee Harris had 16 attempts for 41 yards (2.6 yards per attempt).
We see that both defenses aimed to stop primary rushers, with Cleveland winning that battle. Most painful was the scoreboard, with Chubb’s two TDs, and Winston adding a rushing score as well. All three came in the red zone, two in the fourth quarter, including their game-winner from Chubb with 57 seconds left.
Fourth downs were the other frustrating bugaboo, allowing Cleveland to convert on all four of their attempts, including the Winston TD. Pittsburgh’s defense will surely be looking to rectify red zone and fourth down in Week 14.
Pittsburgh’s offense was also poor on fourth down, going 1-of-3. Loss of two run by QB Justin Fields, RB Jaylen Warren’s loss of one, and the conversion was a nine-yard pass to TE Pat Freiermuth. So, we see a complete failure in the run game on fourth down, detrimental in the loss. Must be better from a play-calling and execution standpoint.
Some context to the lack of yardage from RBs is revealed in eight men in the box rates. Let’s look at that, along with the average time to the line of scrimmage:
All three qualifiers faced eight men in the box at 40 percent or more. Whopping 56.3 rate against Harris, most of Week 12, adding some context to his low yards per attempt. Jaylen Warren faced it often as well (45.5), which was third-most of the week, with more success (4.1 yards per attempt, 1TD). Pittsburgh’s defense had eight men in the box 40.0 percent against Chubb (T-fifth most).
They did limit him to a long of seven yards, and their explosive backup Jerome Ford to a long of nine. So we clearly see the damage wasn’t yardage, but unfortunate fails in situational and scoreboard issues. Perhaps Pittsburgh could commit eight men in the box more, but mainly tightening up execution in money situations.
Another thing that jumps out is Chubb’s fastest time to the line of Week 12. Part of that was getting downhill situationally (red zone/fourth down), but also points to the Steelers’ defensive line needing to win early and often in general. In comparison, Harris and Warren were below average, with 12th and 16th ranks out of 21 qualifiers. Control the trenches Pittsburgh.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously key to any matchup.
Here are PFF blocking grades for Week 12:
The Browns had better balanced grades on the top right, while Pittsburgh fared better in PBLK, including T Broderick Jones trending positively as the only Steeler above the mean in each.
Browns expected OL:
LT Germain Ifedi: 63.7 RBLK (25th/58), 19.3 PBLK (next-to-last).
LG Joel Bitonio: 63.5 RBLK (24th/55), 3.1 PBLK (last).
C Ethan Pocic: 69.8 RBLK (3rd/27), 46.3 PBLK (21st).
RG Wyatt Teller: 81.5 RBLK (5th/55), 76.8 PBLK (17th).
RT Jack Conklin: 61.6 RBLK (27th/58), 66.1 PBLK (33rd).
Their biggest issue was clearly the left side, particularly in PBLK. Ifedi is filling in due to injury. Had two penalties, allowed four pressures, three hurries, and a strip-sack turnover by Steelers EDGE Nick Herbig. Hopefully, Herbig dominates that side again.
The rest of the D-line needs to step up though, considering that was Pittsburgh’s only sack. Cam Heyward was second on the team with three pressures, and hopefully continue to give Bitonio some fits while getting home this time.
EDGE T.J. Watt was quietened, particularly to his standards by Conklin. That, plus the media and Browns EDGE Myles Garrett stirring the who’s better debate, I like the chances of Watt having a hair-on-fire statement game.
Their interior o-line did well, particularly in RBLK with Pocic and Teller having top five ranks. Heyward and company know they have to be stouter against the run, and situationally in hopes to even the series. Pittsburgh DL Keeanu Benton really struggled against the run. Not a one-man job, but needs a much better Week 14 game.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore: 49.1 RBLK (52nd/58), 68.8 PBLK (29th).
LG Isaac Seumalo: 63.1 RBLK (26th/55), 32.6 PBLK (49th).
C Zach Frazier: 72.5 RBLK (2nd/27), 20.3 PBLK (last).
RG Mason McCormick: 44.4 RBLK (52nd/55), 75.7 PBLK (18th).
RT Broderick Jones: 67.8 RBLK (19th/58), 67.1 PBLK (31st).
Frazier sticks out with an impressive RBLK, but ranked last in PBLK in Week 12. Season-worsts in pressures (four), hurries (three), and his only sack allowed in 2024. This was on a twist inside, beaten handily by Garrett for one of his three sacks in the game. Moore allowed the other two, but fared better overall in Week 12.
The plan and execution on Garrett was clearly poor, along with DL Dalvin Tomlinson who had a team-high ten pressures, and LB Jordan Hicks provided three pressures and a sack on only five pass rush snaps. Hence low PBLK grades for Seumalo, and furthering the context of Frazier’s worst PBLK among centers in Week 12.
Encouraging to see Jones’ improvements, albeit not facing the toughest matchup challenge. McCormick showed some encouraging PBLK, which carried over last week, and hopefully continues. We see that RBLK was the fourth-worst of the week though, along with Moore struggling against Garrett there too.
Let’s step it up men.
WIDE RECEIVERS – The big news is Steeler George Pickens on the Friday injury report (questionable – hamstring). His availability is obviously huge, and how effective he is if he does play will be something to look for. There’s beef with their secondary that he no doubt wants to get on the right side of.
Week 12 got heated, and the final hail-mary pushed out of bounds with an ensuing fight. Making a statement, intelligently, will hopefully occur if available. His matchup-leading seven targets from Week 12 would certainly be missed.
If so, receivers will need to step up in committee style to fill the void. Calvin Austin had the second-most targets at WR (three). He was the team leader in yards (78), yards per reception (26.0), and only passing TD of 23 yards that gave Pittsburgh a fourth-quarter lead.
It could be tough through the air if Pickens can’t go, with Cleveland not having to account for the Steelers’ clear WR1. Encouragingly, we’ve seen Wilson spread the ball around admirably, regardless of position. Calling for more Mike Williams as well, with just two targets in four games, regardless of Pickens’ status.
Brown Jerry Jeudy had a nice Week 12, 6-for-6 receiving for 85 yards, all team leads. Elijah Moore was also targeted often (five), and utilized in the short game with three catches for 21 yards.
Let’s look at the average depth of target to see how WRs were utilized in Week 12, along with yards per catch for results context:
The qualifying Steelers (three targets, one catch) were clearly targeted deeper downfield. Austin leads the outlook with a 25.7 average depth of target (third-most), Pickens 20.6 (eighth), and Jefferson 16.3 (13th) out of 70 WRs. It will be interesting to see how Wilson and Pittsburgh’s offense approach things this time around.
Austin and Jefferson were also comfortably above the mean in yards per catch. Austin’s 26.0 ranked fourth, and Jefferson’s 19.5 was 11th, on three targets each. Austin caught all three, while Jefferson grabbed two, and Pickens was just 4/7 receiving. They all had longs of 30-plus: Austin 46, Jefferson 35, Pickens 31. Hopefully, that element remains.
Cleveland’s receivers were closer to average or below. Jeudy landed near the mean in each: 11.8 ADOT (T-25th), 14.2 YPC (24th). More yards after catch impact than Pittsburgh last time. The Steelers are coming off a season-high 263 YAC game against Cincinnati, taking advantage of off-coverage. While Cleveland likely won’t play that nearly as often, hopefully, Pittsburgh will improve on their 90 YAC in Week 12.
Moore was below average in each, with an 8.4 ADOT (50th) and 7.0 YPC (T-62nd). Cedric Tillman caught 2-of-3 targets for 28 yards, a 7.3 ADOT and 14.0 YPC, with more YAC and an explosive 24-yard catch. He’s ruled out, and their room is banged up. Hopefully, Pittsburgh capitalizes, focusing their attention on Jeudy and Moore, while not underestimating elsewhere.
TIGHT ENDS – Pittsburgh’s defense did great limiting David Njoku in Week 12. Had just nine yards on his lone reception on four targets. Two of them were contested, with no catches. Hopefully, it’s a similar story in Week 14. While that’s true, Cleveland’s Jordan Akins caught 3-of-4 targets for 38 yards, including a chunk 18-yarder and was targeted the furthest downfield last matchup.
Thankfully, Pittsburgh won out at the position, namely Pat Freiermuth. He caught all four of his targets for 59 yards, including an explosive 22-yarder. That was a nice third down conversion with YAC, which I hope the position is very impactful in, and getting more targets in the intermediate range.
Darnell Washington’s ADOT was literally at the line of scrimmage, meaning all 14 of his yards were after the catch, reeling in all three of his targets. More impact could be needed, which he’s provided recently, and hopefully transpires that way Sunday.
I wanted to see how the position was utilized with inline rates, and their receiving effectiveness using targeted QB rating:
Through Browns lenses, the biggest thing that jumps out is Njoku’s 39.6 targeted QB rating, the worst of Week 12 among 25 qualifying TEs. Points to how well Pittsburgh did on him, with more of the same hopefully in store. Both Cleveland TEs had a well above-average inline rate, ranking third and fourth of the week at over 60 percent.
Only five TEs did so in Week 12, including Steelers TE Darnell Washington’s league-leading 89.5 inline rate. Second place was 72.2, so we see the context to Washington being relied upon as a blocker far more than most TEs, unsurprisingly. On the flip side is Freiermuth, who is the only matchup TE in Week 12 with a below-the-mean inline rate (29 percent, 20th).
He was also the clear winner in QB rating, at 118.8 (T-ninth), the only above the mean result. Hoping he contributes even more, particularly of the TD variety. In comparison, Akins was second in the first matchup 104.2 QB rating (13th), then Washington (86.1, 19th), and Njoku dead last (39.6).
Knock on wood Pittsburgh gets the better performances both as blockers and receivers.
DEFENSE –
Cleveland hasn’t been nearly as strong as last season, including the 270 passing yards and 120 rushing they allowed Pittsburgh’s offense. Comparatively, the Steelers’ defense allowed 85 rushing yards, and 219 through the air in Week 12.
Here are the 2024 ranks:
Pass Yards: Pittsburgh (17th). Cleveland (18th).
Rush Yards: Steelers (4th). Browns (22nd).
Cleveland has trended down in both stats, previously 15th in my week 12 pregame stats outlook. Pittsburgh’s ranks stood pat in each. Their fourth rank in rushing yards only tells part of the story, like the short yardage fourth down/red zone gifts they gave up like freebies in Week 12 unfortunately.
Situational season ranks (in parenthesis), and Week 12 numbers:
Third down: Steelers (fourth) – 1-for-10. Cleveland (11th) – 7-for-16.
Fourth down: Browns (18th) – 1-for-3. Steelers (T-22nd) – 4-for-4.
Red zone: Steelers (15th) – 3-for-4. Browns (23rd) – 1-for-2.
Third down was encouraging, and stood true as a strength of Pittsburgh’s defense. But the poor fourth down/red zone numbers, oh my. Fourth downs have been a bigger 2024 issue, while red zone had been stifling earlier this year. Huge keys, and hoping Pittsburgh’s offense flips the red zone script, which is the Browns’ lowest defensive mark, with continued success on third down.
To close, here’s a visual of defenses pass and run EPA (measures overall scoring impact) in Week 12:
Week 12 Pass Defense EPA: Pittsburgh (fifth). Cleveland (17th).
Week 12 Run Defense EPA: Browns (seventh). Steelers (21st).
Cleveland clearly won out in terms of run defense, painfully, while Pittsburgh’s pass EPA was respectively in the top five.
Here’s what those numbers looked like heading into the Week 12 matchup:
Pass Defense EPA: Pittsburgh (ninth). Cleveland (19th).
Run Defense EPA: Steelers (ninth). Browns (23rd).
The Steelers were above average in each, a substantial edge in both regards prior to the matchup. Re-emphasizing the letdown fashion of the loss, that certainly has Pittsburgh’s attention. Can’t wait to see their plan and execution against a team they should have swept.
Sunday will either a make-it-right sigh of relief or a world-on-fire outcome. Here’s to hoping for the former with a comfortable victory this time, to even the series and continue sitting pretty atop the AFC North.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Browns
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
