For the third straight game, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be without standout wide receiver George Pickens. That creates a significant hole offensively as the Black and Gold head to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens in a pivotal AFC North matchup Saturday.
Without Pickens, the Steelers’ offense has struggled in the last two games. Pittsburgh went 1-1 in those two games, beating the Cleveland Browns with 27 points scored and losing to the Philadelphia Eagles with just 13 points scored. Despite the 27 points scored against the Browns in Week 14, the offense has largely been a mess, particularly in the passing game.
Throughout the season, especially since Week 7 when quarterback Russell Wilson was inserted into the starting lineup, the deep ball and the explosive-play ability has been present in the Steelers’ offense, particularly with Pickens. Without him, the Steelers have struggled to move the football through the air.
That’s why Pickens is the Steelers’ most important non-QB entering the playoffs for The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen.
“Pickens isn’t a bona fide elite receiver yet, and there are times when his effort level isn’t where you want it to be, but it’s hard to deny his talent. He’s by far the Steelers’ most talented receiver, and their passing game is dramatically less effective without him,” Nguyen writes via nytimes.com. “Since Russell Wilson took over as starter in Week 7, the Steelers’ passing game has been one of the most efficient in the league. Wilson and Pickens were made for each other.
“Pickens specializes in getting deep and making contested catches and Wilson throws one of the best ‘moon’ balls in the league.”
Together when on the field, Pickens and Wilson have made magic happen, particularly down the field. Time and time again, Pickens has found a way to come up with the big play in the passing game. Without him, though, there’s been a limit on the big plays.
Ás Nguyễn laid out in a chart, the Steelers’ explosive play rate without Pickens sits at just 8.7%, which is 22nd in the NFL. With him, the explosive play rate is 12.2%, which is 14th in the NFL.
Expected Points Added per drop back with (0.31, 4th) and without (0.08, 28th) Pickens on the field is a dramatic difference, too, as is the expected points per drive with (2.33, 13th) and without (1.74, 20th). He’s a huge component of the offense and draws quite a bit of attention, too, opening things up for the rest of the offensive weapons.
When Pickens isn’t on the field, the Steelers are much easier to defend, and that’s a real problem that they haven’t figured out in recent weeks.
“The sample is small, but without Pickens, the Steelers’ offense struggled against the Cleveland Browns and the Philadelphia Eagles,” Nguyen added. “Yes, the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league, but if the Steelers consider themselves Super Bowl contenders, they can’t have performances as in Week 15 in which they only scored 13 points and had 163 yards before the Eagles ran the entire clock out after the getting the ball with 10:29 remaining in the game.
“This offense depends on Pickens’ big-play ability and the stress he puts on defenses.”
The offense certainly does depend on Pickens’ big-play abilities, especially Wilson. When the Steelers need a big play or are in a big spot, chances are they are turning to No. 14. He’s come through often this season, putting up 55 receptions for 850 yards and three touchdowns with 15.5 yards per reception.
The next closest weapon in the passing game for the Steelers from a production standpoint is TE Pat Freiermuth with 47 receptions. The next closest wide receiver is Calvin Austin III, who has just 28 receptions. Pickens is the key cog in the engine offensively, and without him the Steelers are sputtering, failing to fire.
