The 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are heading into Week 8 on a two-game winning streak, thankfully posting refreshing marks of 32-13 and 37-15 in those victories. This week’s challenge is the New York Giants (2-5), who have lost their last two games and seem to be a favorable matchup on paper overall. Let’s dive into the matchup.
Offenses
QUARTERBACKS – Steeler Russell Wilson made his first appearance 2024 last week, with some clear pros and cons in that performance. The good included Pittsburgh’s highest points scored this season, including a dominant second-half point differential, along with explosive passing and effectiveness in play-action.
Some issues were accuracy and keeping drives going (0-of-6 on first half 3rd downs), which will hopefully look better after shaking the rust off. Check out my Week 7 Steelers Passing Charts article for a detailed breakdown if you’d like.
Despite connection issues (55.2 completion rate), Wilson had the most passing yards in a Pittsburgh debut (264), including 5 explosive passes and 2 touchdowns. This got me curious to how this game stacked up to his peers this season.
Here are weekly average air yard differentials (completed – intended air yards), along with aggressiveness (rate of defender within one yard at the completion/incompletion point) to gauge the difficulty of coverage:
Here we see that Wilson had one of the best-balanced performances of 2024 in these terms. Despite throwing into tight coverage at 31 percent AGG (fifth-highest), he had a 0.2 AYD that was eighth-best this season out of 213 qualifying games (min. 15 attempts).
To put that into context, only nine QBs have a positive AYD number this season, with Wilson’s AGG by far the most. If tight coverage reoccurs, we could see a similar outing against a Giants defense that ties for the least interceptions and yardage through Week 7.
Looking at the other QBs of interest, we see that none of their games were above the mean in each. Pittsburgh’s Justin Fields had four games with above average air yard differentials, one above the mean AGG, and one that was well below the mean in each. The latter was the Week 5 loss to Dallas, when Fields had the second-worst AYD (-6.6) of 2024.
Giants QB Daniel Jones’ results are also interesting. In 5-of-7 games, he has been average or above in AGG, with as many below average AYD performances. This could prove to be advantageous for Pittsburgh’s pass defense, with Jones throwing into tight coverage often against a unit that has 9 interceptions (T-third most).
Jones does present a challenge as a rusher:
Jones ranks eighth among QBs in rushing yards. Pittsburgh’s defense better be ready for this element of their offense, that includes designed runs for him as well. Fields still ranks fifth in his six games played, and it will be interesting to see if a package for his nice abilities here are utilized after not doing so last week.
RUNNING BACKS – The Giants have 711 team rushing yards to date, 22nd in the NFL. Some of that is game circumstance, playing from behind in a few of their losses. Devin Singletary is their main man, but missed two games to injury and returned for a handful of carries last week. He has 239 yards (34th of 62, min. 30 attempts), 3.9 YPA (T-39th), and no touchdowns.
Rookie fifth-rounder Tyrone Tracy has appeared in all seven games, starting the last three after a complementary role previously. A similar 231 yards (35th) on less carries for 4.4 YPA (26th) and a score in Week 6.
Steeler Najee Harris has been on a heater the last two games, including his two 100-yard games and 2 TDs of 2024. He has 478 yards this season (T-eighth), 4.1 YPA (T-32nd), and 2 scores ties for 27th. Jaylen Warren hasn’t been his usual self yet in 2024 dealing with injuries, with 105 yards (61st), 3.2 YPA (T-56th), and no scores. Thankfully, Harris has had a spring in his step with explosiveness, along with his typically smash mouth running style.
Let’s look at breakaway percent (rate of 15-plus runs) and yards after contact/attempt to see how the RBs in the matchup have fared:
Here we see that Harris has refreshingly added more breakaway runs to his game, at 35.6 BAP (14th) after being well below 20-percent his first two seasons and 25.9 in 2023. Seven runs of 15-plus already, tied for third-most in 2024, paired with 362 yards after contact that’s seventh-most. This makes for an above average 3.1 YCO (27th).
Singletary lands very similar, with a 34.7 BAP (T-15th) and 3.2 YCO (T-21st). This points to Pittsburgh’s strong run defense that’s second in YPA allowed (3.6) needing to continue keeping a lid on their ground game. Also interesting on Singletary, he’s faced stacked boxes fifth-most in 2024 (29.5-percent), compared to Harris’ 18.0 (30th), so the former has faced tougher situations and making his BAP and YCO very impressive.
Tracy lands below the mean in each, with a 22.5 BAP (34th), and 2.8 YCO (T-36th). The visual really illustrates my earlier point on Warren, with no breakaway runs, and just 2.2 YCO (57th/62). In his first two seasons, Warren had 24.5 and 34.5 BAY, along with 3.1 and 3.7 YCO numbers. Hopefully another week healthier, we see him return to that form Monday night.
WIDE RECEIVERS – For New York, rookie No. 6 overall pick in Malik Nabers has made noise. In five games, 60 targets (6/87 qualifiers, min. 20 targets), 39 catches (T-sixth), 427 yards (13th), and 3 TDs (T-12th).
Their most targeted WR is Wan’Dale Robinson at 67, second-most in the NFL. 43 catches (fourth), but only 303 yards (41st), and 2 TDs (T-31st). Darius Slayton is also a challenge, with 40 targets (34th), 25 catches (T-32nd), 312 yards (T-39th), and a TD (T-49th).
Pittsburgh has two qualifiers. George Pickens of course, who now has 53 targets (T-12th), 31 catches (T-17th), with a high 474 yards (eighth) and a TD (T-49th), refreshing last game (finally). Calvin Austin III now makes the list, with four targets from Wilson in Week Seven, but three incompletions. Hoping for better connection. On the year Austin has 21 targets (T-80th), 11 catches (84th), 203 yards (62nd), and one TD (T-49th).
Here are WRs percent of teams air yards (TAY) and YAC above expected (YAE):
Pittsburgh’s WRs jump out positively on each end of the spectrum. Pickens leads the NFL on a 51.1 TAY number, the only player above 50 percent. That probably isn’t too surprising, as the Steelers are one of the top-heaviest teams at the position. Austin has been solid in the YAC department, including a 4.0 YAE number that’s fourth-best in the league. That’s the only above average mark in the outlook, and hopefully transpires similarly this week.
This means all three Giants are below the mean in YAE. That could bode well for Pittsburgh’s defense that gave up more than desirable, particularly in the first half of last game. While New York WRs are low on the visual, Nabers overall 4.5 YAC is healthier (Robinson – 3.8, Slayton – 2.4) and challenging. Austin leads the outlook substantially at 8.1 YAC, eight-best in the NFL. Just 17.7 TAY through (66th), which hopefully increases.
The Giants have two WRs with above average TAY, 38.9 for Nabers (10th) and Slayton’s 28.1 (32nd). Robinson is below average in each, with 17.8 TAY (64th) similar to Austin’s. So, their three prominent WRs present unique challenges Pittsburgh is hopefully ready for.
TIGHT ENDS – With the Giants heavier WR usage, less usage at the position in the pass game. For context, 46 targets have gone to Steelers TEs in 2024, compared to 19 for New York. Rookie Theo Johnson accounts for 16 of them (34th of 44 qualifiers, min. 10 targets), with 11 catches (T-36th), 115 yards (34th), and no TDs (T-26th).
Pat Freiermuth continues a strong 2024 campaign with 27 targets (T-18th), 24 catches (T-11th), 245 yards (T-13th), and two TDs (T-sixth). Wilson got Darnell Washington more involved last game, refreshingly, 4/4 on those targets including YAC.
Let’s see how YAC has stacked up at the position, along with drop rates:
Both Pittsburgh TEs land on the ideal top right of the visual, with above average YAC and drop rates. Washington leads the outlook with 6.4 YAC, tying for seventh and no drops. Hope he heavily involved with a red zone TD on my bingo card. Freiermuth has 5.2 YAC (19th), and only one drop, with his 4.0 DROP ranking 25th. That came way back in Week 3, with both Steelers providing reliably sure hands.
On the contrary for Johnson, whose 15.4 drop rate is second-worst among qualifiers. His two drops did come in the first three games, important to monitor and see if it’s a factor Monday. Seeing his 6.4 YAC is concerning, tying with Washington at seventh-best, so Pittsburgh’s tackling needs to be high on their radar.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously key to any matchup.
Here are PFF blocking grades:
The three leaders in the matchup in RBLK will not play in Week 8. The visual reminds us how well G James Daniels and C Zach Frazier were doing in that department for Pittsburgh, ranking first and sixth at their positions. Giants LT Andrew Thomas (IR) was the other, along with being their only lineman above the mean in both. Big loss, and could play in the Steelers favor with that being on star EDGE T.J. Watt’s side.
Here’s the Giants’ expected group:
LT Joshua Ezeudu (61 snaps): 49.3 RBLK (84th/89), 65.6 PBLK (53rd).
LG Jon Runyan: 49.6 RBLK (80th/86), 67.3 PBLK (36th).
C John Michael Schmitz: 62.1 RBLK (26th/45), 41.9 PBLK (41st).
RG Greg Van Roten: 63.0 RBLK (47th/86), 54.8 PBLK (66th).
RT Jermaine Eluemunor (questionable): 55.2 RBLK (67th/89), 74.0 PBLK (27th).
While they have two above average in PBLK in Eluemunor and Runyan, what jumps out is their projected unit are all below it in RBLK. So, advantage to Pittsburgh on paper as one of the best run defenses and d-lines in the NFL.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore: 65.4 RBLK (40th/89), 72.2 PBLK (30th).
LG Isaac Seumalo: 70.4 RBLK (19th/86), 56.5 PBLK (62nd).
C Ryan McCollum (88 snaps): 46.6 RBLK (45th/45), 54.8 PBLK (33rd).
RG Mason McCormick: 59.2 RBLK (56th/86), 68.9 PBLK (31st).
RT Broderick Jones: 54.8 RBLK (70th/89), 38.0 PBLK (82nd).
Biggest concern for Pittsburgh is the interior. McCollum lacks NFL regular season experience, facing their best d-lineman in Dexter Lawrence. Moore is still the only active starter above the mean in both, though his marks are slipping a bit, including a season-high three pressures allowed last game. Jones is still the Steelers weak link, the worst-balanced blocking grades in the matchup.
Brian Burns is their best EDGE. Moves around the formation frequently, and would expect Jones to deal with him often. Pittsburgh’s guards have been playing well, with Seumalo providing his best PBLK performance of the season after a rough start. McCormick is also coming off a nice game too, with no pressures or sacks allowed. A strong day in pass pro will be needed against the Giants defense.
DEFENSES
Here we see why, with the Giants leading the NFL in sacks with 31. They haven’t created as much pressure overall (60, 10th) but are capitalizing when they get home better than any defense in the league. Lawrence leads the NFL with 9 sacks, adding context to how important pass blocking with be overall and on the interior.
Pittsburgh lands below average in both, with 47 pressures (22nd) and 15 sacks (T-18th). Lower than normal in the Steel City, but the EDGE position was decimated, and of course a factor. With Alex Highsmith back another week healthier, I expect Pittsburgh’s strong EDGE duo to have a good day against New York’s tackles. Also, NYs o-line has allowed 21 sacks on their QB, tied for second-most in the NFL.
Hopefully the Steelers defense has their most dominant performance of the season, boosting pressure and sack numbers that match their abilities.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports:
