Arthur Smith is about to feel the heat. Replacing Matt Canada, maybe the most disliked coach or player in Pittsburgh Steelers history (and I mean that sincerely) creates a honeymoon period. Smith has experience and a track record of success from his days in Tennessee, offering hope he can get the Steelers’ offense on track.
But once the season starts, all that matters is results. Putting points on the board and having a successful offense. So, what are specific and realistic benchmarks the Steelers’ offense can hit to define success? Below is a list of targets the team should reach this season. Surpassing these is, of course, ideal, but if Smith can do everything below, it’ll be a good year for him and for the Steelers. And should avoid any “Fire Arthur Smith” signs showing up at College Gameday.
Points Per Game – Score At Least 21 PPG
Of course, you’d like to see the bar to be higher than this. But we’re talking about success, not ideal. If the Steelers can score at least 21 points per game, that should get them to at least average around the NFL. It’d be the Steelers’ highest point total since 2020 and would get them out of being ranked in the 20s for scoring, a range they’ve been stuck in for the past three seasons.
If Pittsburgh’s defense can live up to expectations and be a top-five scoring unit with an even roughly average offensive unit, this is a playoff team. And a group more likely to win a postseason game than at any point in the last several seasons. While the numbers might not suggest a giant leap forward, this would be a step Pittsburgh’s not been able to take for three seasons. Which would be huge for this team.
First Quarter Stats – Don’t Get Outscored
Pittsburgh’s slow starts are as consistent as they are frustrating. Before Matt Canada was fired last year, the Steelers were outscored 60-21 in the first quarter, excluding their defensive touchdown in Week 2 against the Cleveland Browns. Things got better post-Canada but for the year, including the playoffs, Pittsburgh was still outscored 84-54.
I know the “don’t get outscored” metric isn’t completely in Smith’s hands, the defense has a job to do, but the Steelers’ defense can reasonably be expected to hold the fort down. And if Pittsburgh is outclassed say, 100-90 in the first quarter, the blame won’t go to Smith. It’ll go to the defense.
Digging out of a hole can’t be how the Steelers continue living. Their slow starts extend to beyond Matt Canada and Smith needs good game scripts to get the ball rolling early. Literally.
First Drive Success – Finish Top 10 in Scoring Drives, Top Half in Touchdowns
Similar to the first quarter stat but more focused to the initial drive of the game that really hones in on game plan and opening script. Over the Matt Canada era, Pittsburgh ranked 27th in scoring drives (16), tied for 24th in touchdown drives (9), and tied for 28th in punts (29), making up more than half of their first possessions.
Not all first drives will be marches right downfield. Defenses make plays, too. But being able to punch first is huge for the Steelers’ defense to play with an advantage instead of trying to hang on and keep the score close until Pittsburgh’s offense comes alive in the fourth quarter.
Red Zone Work – 60 percent (leave the 20s)
Finishing drives is the deciding factor between wins and losses. Touchdowns, not field goals. The Steelers have been below 55 percent and ranked in the 20s three years running, bottoming out at 47.6 percent in 2023. In the Matt Canada era, here are the Steelers’ red zone results.
2023 – 47.6 percent (27th)
2022 – 51.9 percent (23rd)
2021 – 54.0 percent (23rd)
They haven’t been above 60 percent since 2020. That needs to be their minimum target. If they can do that, Pittsburgh should finish somewhere between 10th and 16th league-wide.
20-Plus Yard Completions – Finish At Least Average
Big plays in the passing game ease the need for these long, perfect drives where a drop, run stuff, or penalty would otherwise ruin a drive. Pittsburgh lagged there last season, finishing 27th with 41 completions of 20-plus yards. That won’t be easy with a wide receiver room worse than a season ago, but Arthur Smith will have to scheme it open and trust that Russell Wilson’s deep throws, his strong suit, can create those big plays downfield.
Passing TDs – Do In One Year What They’ve Done The Past Two
Putting the goal of 25 for the 2024 Steelers. For most teams, that would be normal or even undershooting their realistic target. But Pittsburgh has just 25 passing scores over the past two combined years. Accomplishing that in one season would get this offense back on solid footing.
With their run-heavy style and probable penchant for leaning on RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren around the goal line, not to mention using QB Justin Fields in those situations, the Steelers may limit their number of passing touchdown chances. That makes 25 passing scores, not even 1.5 per game, a realistic and baseline target to return to. It’s also something Arthur Smith’s Falcons teams never achieved, 20 was their high, so it’s a good goal all-around.
At year’s end, we’ll revisit these metrics and see how close Smith came to achieving them.
