Let me start this post by letting all of you know that my forthcoming opinions won’t be immensely popular and thus widely supported. They are about Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris and if the team should sign him to a contract extension prior to the 2024 regular season getting underway.
Harris has become a popular topic since mandatory minicamp ended and that’s likely because of a few things that Steelers GM Omar Khan said in a recent radio interview about the running back in addition to the New England Patriots recently signing RB Rhamondre Stevenson to a contract extension a few weeks ago that reportedly includes a base new money average of $9 million.
While I am not one to defend running backs on a regular basis because I view the position as a highly fungible one, I do believe the Steelers should seriously consider signing Harris to a contract extension this summer with a new money average equal to, or slightly greater than, that of Stevenson’s deal.
Before we move forward, I want to clarify my tinfoil hat view on why the Steelers might not have picked up the fifth-year option on Harris in May and especially if they ultimately have sights on possibly signing him to a meaningful contract extension prior to the start of the 2024 regular season. This is only a theory, mind you.
For starters, had the Steelers picked up Harris’ fifth-year option, the running back would have then technically had two years remaining on his current contract. The Steelers have a long precedent of not extending contracts of non-quarterbacks with more than one year remaining on their current deals. What does that all mean? Well, if a contract extension for Harris ultimately materialized after the Steelers had picked up his fifth-year option, it would be considered as the organization breaking a precedent.
On top of that two-year-out precedent being broken, the Steelers would have then set themselves up for future fifth-year option-exercised players pointing to the Harris outcome and thus expecting extensions for themselves in the same offseason in which the decision took place. Make sense?
Now, the only way that my tin foil hat theory when it comes to the Harris fifth-year option decision possibly being proven correct is if the Steelers ultimately sign him to an extension prior to the start of the regular season. Oh, and such an extension will need to have a new money average greater than the amount of what Harris’ fifth-year option was scheduled to be in 2025 ($6.79 million). Anything other than that outcome essentially will leave my theory out in the cold as a cockamamie and unsubstantiated one, not that I haven’t had a few of those over the years.
Now, why do I believe that Harris should be signed to a contract extension prior to the start of the regular season and one with a new money average greater than that of Stevenson’s?
For starters, Harris has more than held his own in overall production when compared to Stevenson through their first three NFL seasons and he did so mainly playing in an inept offense run by former offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Nearly two of those three seasons the Steelers had QB Kenny Pickett under center as well.
The fact that Harris has managed to register three consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons since entering the NFL is quite impressive. Not only that, but Harris is also the only NFL player to have accomplished that feat in the last three seasons. Only six other running backs have registered more receptions than Harris in the last three seasons as well and only five others have registered more yards from scrimmage than he has. Harris also has yet to miss an NFL game and with him touching the football 978 times in regular-season play so far, that’s an impressive feat in and of itself.
While Harris certainly wasn’t a huge explosive run contributor by percentage during his college career at Alabama, he has managed to hold his own in that statistical category since entering the NFL. Harris has registered 15 runs of 20 yards or longer, and only 10 other running backs have registered more than him in the last three seasons. Stevenson, by the way, has eight such runs in the last three seasons.
Now, I’m not trying to paint Harris as some sort of super unfungible running back who’s on the same plane as San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey. He’s not even close to him. McCaffrey is the highest-paid running back in the NFL with an APY of $19 million and is for a reason. Even so, I think Harris is at least worth half of what McCaffrey currently gets. That means an APY of $9.5 million or so.
Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs is the fifth-highest paid player at his position in the NFL with an APY of $12 million. Personally, I think it’s a lofty reach for Harris to top him this summer. A new APY of $9.5 million for Harris this summer, however, would still rank him seventh among NFL running backs, behind the Houston Texans’ Joe Mixon and one spot ahead of Stevenson. That feels like a correct placement.
Let’s now look at Harris’ current placement on the Steelers. According to Over the Cap, Harris’ APY of $3,261,861 ranks 17th on the Steelers in late June. That’s two spots behind rookie OT Troy Fautanu ($3,763,824) and three spots behind OG Nate Herbig ($4,000,000), who played just 156 offensive snaps in 2023. That just seems wrong based on Harris’ production through his first three NFL seasons.
Several will likely comment that Harris signed his rookie contract and thus he should play it out as it is. I honestly get that point from a fan perspective. I also get market value related to positions in the NFL from a business perspective and in my opinion that Harris is severely underpaid right now.
I am in no way advocating that Harris should become one of the five highest-paid running back in the NFL this summer. If he’s aiming that high, I think it is a mistake on his part. I do, however, believe that Harris would be in the right if he’s looking to just barely top Stevenson and possibly even Mixon. The projected contract I recently laid out a week ago Friday reflects such a deal that I believe is fair for both Harris and the Steelers.
Not that the Steelers would seriously consider using the franchise tag on Harris next offseason, but with them not picking up the fifth-year option on their former first-round draft pick in May, it could now be used as a negotiating weapon of sorts. As things stand right now, Harris has potential max earnings through 2025 of nearly $15.5 million and that’s only if he were to receive the franchise tag after the 2024 season. An extension this summer could be worked off that starting point, which is what I did in my recent contract projection.
Yes, the Steelers have another very capable running back in the form of Jaylen Warren, who really won’t be seriously in line for a new deal until next offseason at the earliest. I am no way discounting Warren by making a case for Harris getting a new contract. I am just looking at Harris’ situation alone.
With Stevenson now paid, I do wonder if Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne might be the next player at his position to get paid this summer. If such a summer deal is in the cards for Etienne, it’s hard to imagine him accepting less than what Stevenson’s new deal reflects. In short, if the Steelers have any interest in extending Harris before the start of the 2024 regular season, they might want to think seriously about beating the Jaguars and Etienne to the proverbial altar.
A little more than a week ago, Khan addressed the Steelers’ decision to not pick up Harris’ fifth-year option in May.
“Love Najee as a player and a person,” Khan said on 93.7 The Fan. “Just because we didn’t pick it up it doesn’t exclude us from doing something with Najee long-term. I’d love to say Najee was here and had a long career in Pittsburgh. He really represents us well on the field and off the field.”
Everyone can read into Khan’s comments what they will. I, however, believe that Khan will still try to get Harris signed to a fair-market contract extension this summer based on his recent comments.
Should Harris ultimately not sign an extension prior to the start of training camp, I could see him conducting a hold-in of sorts once the team arrives at Saint Vincent College in Latrobe. Personally, I’m expecting that to happen and believe that should be his next course of action. Whether that gets him anywhere is anyone’s guess. However, I will say this, Harris is not going to be a happy camper at all in 2024 if he doesn’t get a new deal prior to the start of the regular season.
In closing, I look at Harris’ current situation as what is fair and the right thing to do. Personally, I think he deserves an extension and one that includes a new APY slightly greater than that of Stevenson’s. Additionally, such an extension should not include fully guaranteed money past 2024, so just the signing bonus and base salary. Basically, it’s a one-year, $10.2 million deal with two option years, if you will.
Most people looking at this situation with Harris, and particularly the fact that the Steelers chose not to pick up his fifth-year option, will come away thinking that there’s no earthly chance he gets an extension prior to the start of the 2024 regular season. I honestly get that line of thinking. Even so, I don’t think a summer extension is totally out of the question for Harris just the same. Personally, I think he deserves one similar to the one I recently laid out. Will he get one? I don’t have enough confidence to guarantee that he will and that will likely make several of you reading this post incredibly happy.
