Last month, I made my pre-free agency Pittsburgh Steelers predictions. All the things I thought the team would — and wouldn’t do — to kick off the 2024 offseason. Clearly, it was a couple of weeks no one could’ve expected. Even hearing it from GM Omar Khan, things didn’t go as they expected or planned.
But in the interest of accountability, I wanted to take a look back at the predictions I got right and the predictions I got wrong. Understanding free agency isn’t over, and the Steelers could and probably will make more moves before or certainly after the draft, but the bulk of free agency is over. So, it’s a time to reflect before the draft consumes the entire conversation.
WHAT I GOT RIGHT
SAFETY WILL RECEIVE UPGRADE
And it did with SS DeShon Elliott. Perhaps a smaller name than expected and not someone atop my list. But he’s a sturdy box defender and run-stopper who can play every down. That’s all Pittsburgh needed opposite Minkah Fitzpatrick to keep him in his best role as the Steelers’ free safety and robber. A weak safety draft class always pushed Pittsburgh towards free agency, and adding a safety was shrewd and smart.
SIMILAR MONEY STRUCTURE TO PAST TWO OFFSEASONS (2-3 STARTERS) WITH ONE BIGGER SIGNING
Here’s what I wrote in the pre-free agency article.
“I could see their top free agent prize signing for a higher APY than any of those names, currently held by Daniels’ $8.83 million. That would make for the highest-paid free agent in team history, though it doesn’t take into consideration relativity to the cap.”
And that high prize came in the form of ILB Patrick Queen, the largest-paid free agent outside signing in team history in pure average yearly value. He signed a three-year, $41 million deal that works out to $13.67 million per year, though it’s structured favorably to the team. I didn’t expect Queen to be the guy, but he ultimately checked that box.
Beyond that, they signed a starter in Elliott and obviously overturned their quarterback situation with a new starter. It was overall less cash spent than we expected so this probably wasn’t 100 percent on the nose, but I’ll still put it in the “right” category.
MORE EMPHASIS ON DEFENSE THAN OFFENSE
A little debatable here. But in terms of money spent, it did more heavily favor defense than the low-cash/cap deals offensively. Queen was the big splash, Elliott as a starter, and even DL Dean Lowry got paid decently as rotational d-line depth.
Several offensive players were brought in, the quarterbacks and receivers, but the budget was much lower.
WILL SIGN A STARTING-CALIBER PUNTER
Hello, Cameron Johnston. After dealing with Pressley Harvin III’s frustration for three seasons, the team moved on and signed the Aussie Johnston, a veteran who spent time in Philadelphia and most recently, the Houston Texans. This one felt like sort of a layup. There were several good punters in free agency, and it’s better to sign someone than burn a draft pick. Still, it was an under-discussed move heading into free agency and was among the first boxes the team ticked off.
Here are the individual signing predictions I’ve gotten right or appear to be right so far.
LB Blake Martinez – leaves
CB James Pierre – leaves
LB Kwon Alexander – leaves…maybe revisit in August
EDGE Markus Golden – leaves
QB Mason Rudolph – leaves
WR Miles Boykin – leaves
S Miles Killebrew – re-signs
S Elijah Riley – leaves
LB Mykal Walker – leaves
Pierre, Rudolph, Boykin, Killebrew, and Walker are all official, with Killebrew being the only name to return. It feels like a safe bet Martinez and Golden won’t come back. Alexander is rehabbing and getting healthier, and my caveat still stands, though drafting an inside linebacker could dry up those chances.
Pierre was a fine special teamer but wasn’t going to be anything more in Pittsburgh. Rudolph was going out on a bit of a limb, though there’s lots about quarterback I got wrong (which I’ll get to). I figured Killebrew would be their choice over Boykin.
WHAT I GOT WRONG
THEY’LL SIGN A VETERAN QUARTERBACK (IF MASON RUDOLPH ISN’T BROUGHT BACK), WON’T MAKE BIG SWING AT QB
Put a lot of red ink through my quarterback commentary. I thought the Steelers would pair someone like Ryan Tannehill with Kenny Pickett and have an uninspiring camp battle. Generally speaking, I thought things wouldn’t be too exciting. Wrong, wrong, wayyyy wrong.
Instead, the team signed Russell Wilson, traded Kenny Pickett, and traded for Justin Fields. All in the span of about one week (and technically, about 24 hours if you count from the time Wilson officially signed and was introduced). The moves even seemed to catch the organization by surprise, but it was a massive shakeup, even if the team’s investments in Wilson and Fields are low. They’re still big swings.
A LOW/MID-TIER CENTER WILL BE ADDED
I wrote the Steelers wouldn’t go into the draft with “nothing” at center. Uh, about that…
That’s sorta where things are headed. Now, I was right that Pittsburgh wouldn’t sign a big name at center. They wanted to draft one, and even though they flirted with Mitch Morse, it’s clear money was the reason why he signed in Jacksonville. But I thought there would be some veteran brought in as a stop-gap ahead of the draft. So far, they haven’t. It appears Nate Herbig will be the team’s internal/veteran competition for whatever center they draft.
WILD CARDS: INSIDE LINEBACKER, CORNERBACK
Hard to say which category this should go in. I noted I wasn’t quite sure how the team would handle these two spots. I thought they would sign a cornerback, and they traded for Donte Jackson and knew they would do something at inside linebacker. But my tepid comments didn’t really match what occurred, so I’ll put them in the “wrong” category, not expecting them to trade for a corner or make quite a big swing at inside linebacker.
The individual signing predictions I got wrong.
DL Armon Watts – re-signs
CB Chandon Sullivan – re-signs
CB Levi Wallace – re-signs
NT Montravius Adams – leaves
Evidently, the team had an interest in Armon Watts but not enough to keep him. It led them back to Adams. Sullivan could re-sign, but that may not occur until after the draft. For now, he’s in the “wrong” column. Not sure why I thought Wallace would return. He’s still a free agent but visiting Denver today and it doesn’t look like he’ll return. I picked Watts over Adams, assuming they wouldn’t bring both back. They didn’t, but I chose the wrong name.
