Deep passing is a very important element for the most effective offense in today’s NFL and a facet of the game the Pittsburgh Steelers needed to improve for the 2024 season. In this article, I will provide deep passing stats of 20 yards or more, seeing how the overhauled quarterback room with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and former Steelers QB Kenny Pickett fared in 2023 among their peers with at least 20 deep pass attempts.
First, here are the quarterbacks’ average depth of target (ADOT) and yards per attempt (YPA) on deep passes, along with number of attempts as their dot sizes:
Here we see the newly acquired QB 1 (as we sit here today), Russell Wilson, tied for the highest 32.9 ADOT among 38 quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts in Denver. This wasn’t limited to last season, with Wilson ranking third in 2022, and littered across his veteran resume as well.
Fields was also an above-the-mean ADOT QB, with a 30.5 ADOT that ranked 12th in 2023. Bringing in two quarterbacks with these marks and aligning with what OC Arthur Smith’s style of offense has been, points to a refreshingly aggressive shift that is atypical in Pittsburgh.
Seeing where Kenny Pickett landed with the Steelers in 2023, we get more context to this, and how different things could look this year. His below-average 29.2 ADOT tied for 19th, but standing out notably are the dot sizes, highlighting the number of deep attempts for each quarterback.
28 deep pass attempts for Pickett ranked 31st in 2023. Wilson? 60 deep attempts (T-13th). Fields? 52 (21st). Clear difference, and a hopeful substantial change we’ll see in Pittsburgh’s 2024 offense.
The numbers point to a hope for more yardage dividends though, with the QBs in our sights landing close to the mean in YPA (or connectivity). Wilson tops the group again, with a 13.6 deep YPA (T-14th), which was slightly above average. Fields came in at an average 12.9 (19th), while Pickett’s 12.2 tied for 22nd (slightly below average).
Having one of the better contested/deep ball WRs in George Pickens should only help, along with who Pittsburgh brings in to fill the room following the Diontae Johnson trade.
Another important facet for quarterbacks and successful passing offenses is of course completion rates. Let’s see how the QBs stacked up in deep pass completion percentage and adjusted completion percentage (percentage of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops \ aimed)), which is an even better QB metric in my opinion that takes out some of the “noise” of the overall completion rate:
Fields jumps out most positively, comfortably above the mean in each. His 44.2 COM ranked 12th, and even more impressive was a 53.8 ADJ, fifth-best among qualifiers with Chicago last year. That supporting cast was less than ideal to say the least, making that number even more impressive, and what he could provide Pittsburgh if given an opportunity.
Wilson lands more in the middle, with a slightly below-average 38.3 COM (21st), and right at the mean in ADJ (43.3, T-17th). Pickett had a 32.1 COM which was well below average (31st). Like the new QB room though, his 42.9 ADJ was better, ranking 20th. So, on these aimed passes and not penalizing QBs for drops, the trendline (diagonal line) emphasizes all three QBs (particularly Fields and Pickett) as above average, encouragingly.
Scoring and turnovers are of course the biggest momentum swings to winning or losing a game, so I wanted to close by seeing how the quarterbacks fared in touchdowns and interceptions on deep passes:
More encouraging news for the newcomers, with Fields and Wilson both on the ideal top right of the chart. Fields led the focused players with eight deep TDs, exactly half of his total TDs, and more than Pickett’s abysmal six total touchdowns last year. Wilson tied that number on deep touchdowns alone. That was a painful aspect of Pickett’s first two seasons and an encouraging aspect for the new additions that hopefully carry over to the black and gold.
Though Pickett had a low four total interceptions in 2023, three of them came on deep throws, the most of the QBs in our sights. Wilson had just one, and two for Fields. TD/INT ratios on deep passes point to optimism for Pittsburgh moving forward: Fields (+6), Wilson (+5), Pickett (-1), and on total passes (Wilson +18, Fields +7, Pickett +2). Knock on wood that it aids a dire remedy of scoring more points in 2024.
To close, here’s a view of 2023 QBs with a PFF deep passing grade of 90-plus:
Getting not one, but two quarterbacks in Justin Fields and Russell Wilson that have fared very well in the deep passing game in 2023 is music to my ears after providing weekly Steelers Passing Charts the past two seasons. The Steelers have struggled to consistently sustain drives and capitalize on the scoreboard for a while, and the unexpectedly aggressive and wholesale change to the QB room points to the organization encouragingly not standing pat as they’ve done in the past. Hopefully, the reward is vast, seeing a more dynamic offense than in recent memory in 2024 and beyond.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
