How much should QB Kenny Pickett’s winning record matter?
I have to confess that this is a topic that particularly interests me within the current conversation. Everyone has an opinion about who the Steelers should start at quarterback. QB Kenny Pickett has a historically bad touchdown percentage at just 1.9, the lowest of any with 500 career attempts.
But they still manage to win, and Pickett is often a key reason they win late in games. He officially owns a 14-10 record as a starter, but more on that in a minute. He also has seven career game-winning drives. In other words, half the time the Steelers win, he had to win the game, or at least help play a key role. Either the Steelers trailed or tied with their opponents and he needed to make a play. He made them pretty often.
Pickett gets credit for his fourth-quarter successes out of one side of the mouth while receiving criticism for the first 45 (or 55) minutes of games. That’s not unfair, and Ben Roethlisberger used to make the same point about his own comebacks. Do better in the first three quarters and often you don’t have to win in the fourth.
The ultimate goal of every game is to win, however. And the Steelers are 14-10 when Pickett starts games. Even better, they are 14-7 when he starts and makes it most of the way through a game. Three times Mitch Trubisky finished off a game for him and lost.
He played just eight snaps during his concussion game against the Ravens in which Trubisky threw three interceptions. In the loss to the Cardinals in which he injured his ankle at the goal line, the Steelers held a 3-3 and should have taken the lead at that point. Trubisky played just over half in that one. His rib injury against the Jaguars knocked him out as the Steelers trailed 9-3 before halftime, 1st and 10 on Jacksonville’s 39. Trubisky threw two interceptions after taking over.
14-7 versus a low percentage of passing touchdowns. This seems to be one of the primary dichotomies. How do you reconcile one with the other? The defense has to keep the score down, but Pickett also has to win the games in the end, as often as not.
The real question is how much he can develop. It’s not actually about how frequently he throws touchdowns but how often the offense scores touchdowns. Najee Harris scored four of his eight touchdowns and Jaylen Warren one of his four after Pickett’s injury. Five of 12 total running back touchdowns, plus two quarterback and one wide receiver rushing touchdown. In the final five games, the Steelers scored on the brought eight times.
If the running game can continue to produce more efficiently and Pickett can improve his unsustainable touchdown percentage, can they continue to win? They managed to win with Mason Rudolph, too, but not with Trubisky. The common denominator in the wins versus the losses? Ball security.
The Steelers’ 2023 season has been put out of its misery, ending as so many have before in recent years: a disappointing, blowout playoff loss. The only change-up lately is when they miss the playoffs altogether. But with the Buffalo Bills stamping them out in the Wildcard Round, they have another long offseason ahead.
The biggest question hanging over the team is the quarterback question. Is Kenny Pickett the guy? Will he get another season’s reprieve without a serious challenge? How will the team address the depth chart? Do they re-sign Mason Rudolph, one of few significant unrestricted free agents?
The Steelers are swirling with more questions this offseason than usual, frankly, though the major free agent list is less substantial than usual. It’s just a matter of…what happens next? Where do they go from here? How do they find the way forward?
