Eight teams finish last in their division every year, and almost without fail, one of them wins the division the following year; in 2024, the Cincinnati Bengals are the most likely team to accomplish that, according to Pro Football Focus. Jim Wyman writes:
The Bengals made history in 2023 by becoming the first team in the Super Bowl era to finish in last place in their division with a winning record. The Bengals accomplished this feat despite Joe Burrow missing the last seven games of the season due to a wrist injury. Jake Browning played well enough to keep the team afloat in his absence, but it wasn’t quite enough for a playoff berth. With a healthy Burrow, the Bengals should be right in the thick of things for the division title once again.
Often dubbed “worst to first”, the NFL loves to tout this trait for teams to flip their ranking so quickly. Part of their brand is the idea of parity, and that involves the notion that any team can win any given year.
The Bengals are both a safe and a dangerous pick, however. While they have the most reinforcements of the fourth-place teams, they are also in the toughest division. The AFC North is the only division in which every team posted a winning record. It sent three teams to the playoffs as well, even if they collectively went 1-3 with no intradivisional matchups.
The ensuing rankings kind of speak to how obvious the Bengals are as the pick, in my opinion. Behind them are the Chicago Bears, followed by the New England Patriots and the Washington Commanders. These are selections that basically necessitate successfully finding a new quarterback. Rounding out the bottom four are the Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Chargers, and Arizona Cardinals.
But let’s face it. The Bengals are getting QB Joe Burrow back. Short of the New York Jets getting Aaron Rodgers, no other team comes close to that kind of boost. At least no obvious examples jump out in my memory. But the Bengals went 9-8, including 4-3 without him, so that’s quite a splash.
The Bengals didn’t get to see Burrow healthy much last year. He suffered a high ankle sprain in training camp that clearly limited him through the early games. Then he seemed to deal with some arm issue that preceded the injury that ended his season against the Ravens.
Their biggest free agent is WR Tee Higgins, and they have already acted upon that, reportedly giving him the franchise tag. They also have some other significant names preparing to hit the open market, however, whose departure would sting.
WR Tyler Boyd is a lower priority but still a valuable weapon for Burrow. How much does the Higgins tag impact his likelihood of returning? Both DT D.J. Reader and CB Chidobe Awuzie, a pair of starting defenders, are up for the market as well. Then there’s RT Jonah Williams and TE Drew Sample as well.
The good news for the Bengals is they have plenty of cap space, among the most in the entire NFL. Higgins’ tag ties a lot up, but they have resources and tools to create even more room. Completing a long-term extension with Higgins would provide some relief as well.
Of course, the big problem is competing in the AFC North. The Ravens could easily win 13-plus games next year as they did in 2023. The Steelers and the Browns can also prove to be tough outs. Both should—or at least could—have greater clarity at the quarterback spot as well.
