Disclaimer up front: I’m not suggesting Nick Herbig is better than T.J. Watt. Obviously. But on a purely statistical basis, you’d be hard-pressed to find a pass rusher more productive than Herbig. A few weeks ago, we noted his production despite playing only a handful of snaps per game. That’s continued and if anything has only been furthered.
Using our weekly charting, I wanted to take a more in-depth and analytical look at it. Judging Pittsburgh’s top four outside linebackers, Alex Highsmith, Markus Golden, Herbig, and Watt, to see their rates in key categories. How often they were sacking and pressuring opposing quarterbacks, how often they forced fumbles, and how many TFLs in the run game they’ve recorded all while eliminating the “noise” of snap counts.
Below is a chart of sack rate, pressure rate, forced-fumble rate, and running-play-tackles-for-loss rate. The higher the percentage, the better. And you’ll quickly notice Herbig is leading the group in most categories.
| Player | Sack Rate | Pressure Rate | FF Rate | Run TFL Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Watt | 3.4% | 13.3% | 0.5% | 1.6% |
| Nick Herbig | 5.1% | 12.1% | 1.4% | 4.3% |
| Alex Highsmith | 1.5% | 10.2% | 0.2% | 3.2% |
| Markus Golden | 1.6% | 4.4% | N/A | N/A |
Herbig tops three of the four: sack rate, forced-fumble rate, and run TFL rate. In all three, second place isn’t even all that close. Herbig is 1.7 points higher in sack rate than Watt, nearly triples Watt’s forced-fumble rate, and sits over a point above Highsmith in TFL rate. Watt is the leader in pressure rate, a little more than one percent ahead of Herbig, who is ahead of Highsmith and Golden.
If you’re wondering about the two “N/As” for Golden, it’s because Golden doesn’t have a forced fumble or tackle for loss in the run game this season.
In fairness and for additional context, Herbig has a smaller sample size. Splash plays get weighted in his favor and if he was playing hundreds of snaps like Watt and Highsmith, his numbers would likely normalize. Fresh legs also help. Still, it speaks to how impactful Herbig has been despite his limited snap count. Sunday’s win over the Seattle Seahawks was yet another example. Logging just two defensive snaps the whole game, Herbig made the defensive play of the day, strip-sacking QB Geno Smith in the fourth quarter and completing the hat trick by recovering the fumble. The turnover allowed the Steelers to build a two-possession lead they’d ride to victory.
With production like that, there’s an understandable desire to get Herbig on the field more. For this stretch run, he has, seeing double-digit snaps against the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals. The main reason for playing just a pair against Seattle was the limited number of snaps the Steelers’ defense was on the field for overall, just 49 the entire game. When that happens, when the opponent doesn’t control the ball or go on long drives, there’s little need for subs and rotations. The same happened against the Bengals in Week 12. Pittsburgh held them to only 41 snaps, Herbig only seeing three, and he still finished with a sack.
If Golden, a pending free agent, doesn’t return, Herbig should become the clear No. 3 outside linebacker and absorb the bulk of those additional reps. Beyond that, we’ll see if Pittsburgh toys with situational off-ball linebacker work, something it has been hesitant to do midseason for understandable reasons. Not that Herbig needs to shift there, that pre-draft conversation is over, but it would be a chance for more playing time. In rare moments, the Steelers have used Herbig in that capacity, like this 1 DL front with Herbig the third outside linebacker against Cincinnati.
There’s no question Herbig deserves more looks. And it’s reasonable to assume he’ll be even better in Year Two, after a full offseason program and without the pitfalls of being a rookie. Even with those obstacles, Herbig is as impactful as a player as you’ll find and a home run pick in the fourth round.
