The 9-7 Pittsburgh Steelers are looking for their third straight win, which would bode well to their playoff hopes against the division rival Ravens. Baltimore has the best record in the NFL (13-3) and sitting several starters with that postseason privilege already sewed up.
- Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is a top this list, opening an opportunity for backup Tyler Huntley to get his first start of 2023. He has just ten dropbacks this season, but the Steelers are definitely familiar with him.
Huntley has three starts against Pittsburgh the prior two seasons, the 2021 season finale, and in 2022: Week 14 and Week 17. Each game were typical low scoring affairs below 20-points for both teams, and Pittsburgh winning two of the three contests. The Steelers were also the victor in Week Five against Jackson, 17-10, and hopefully can take the season series win another win on Saturday.
Mason Rudolph justly gets the nod for Pittsburgh to close the season, orchestrating two wins in as many starts in 2023. Of quarterbacks with 50 dropbacks or more, Rudolph has the NFL’s best Passer Rating (RAT):
Rudolph’s 115.3 RAT in two games is rather impressive and has us reasonably optimistic for another win against Baltimore. Yes, it’s a small sample size, with Rudolph having the fewest dropbacks (59) of the 55 qualifying quarterbacks. But he is one of only six players to have a 100-plus RAT.
One of these quarterbacks is Jackson, with a 102.5 RAT that ranks sixth best, on his 559 dropbacks in 2023. In comparison, Huntley’s career passer rating is 79.3, and does have a 123.6 RAT in 2023 on just 10 dropbacks.
- As stated earlier, it’s difficult to project who will play for Baltimore, and how much. Gus Edwards leads their backfield with 188 attempts (22nd), 762 yards (25th), and an impressive 13 TDs (third-most). The Ravens are a very strong rushing team on the season, leading the NFL with 2,555 yards and 5.0 YPA. Pittsburgh’s defense needs to stop the run, no doubt, despite Baltimore not needing their full roster.
Here’s a visual of average time to the line of scrimmage (TLOS), eight men in the box percent (8MIB), and rushing touchdowns for dot sizes:
Edwards has faced 34.6 8MIB in 2023, second in the NFL, and has the ninth fastest TLOS. Teams are loading the box and respecting the run, but Baltimore’s RPO game and Jackson’s run ability have demolished opposing defenses. Huntley is not Jackson, but they will likely do similar concepts that are tough to defend. Pittsburgh will need to be gap sound to hopefully limit their rush, making Huntley win with his arm.
Other healthy Ravens RBs that have carries in 2023 are Justice Hill (84 attempts, 4.6 YPA) and Melvin Gordon (19 attempts, 3.3 YPA).
Pittsburgh is coming off a dominant game on the ground, with a two-headed monstrous game from Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren that will hopefully carry over to the finale. They ranked first and second, respectively in forced missed tackles in Week 17, as the NFL’s angriest runners.
Compared to Edwards on the visual, they have taken more time to the line, including more toss concepts as the season has worn on, and have also seen 8MIB at below average rates compared to their peers.
Seeing Warren with the fourth-lowest 8MIB (10.0) sheds light to some of his stellar marks this season including 5.4 YPA (third), with 751 yards (26th), four TDs (T-26th) on 140 attempts (36th) among 47 qualifiers.
Harris has faced a higher 17.0 8MIB (25th), and now has 229 attempts (T-eighth), 923 yards (T-12th), seven TDs (T-12th), and 4.0 YPA (23rd), encouragingly boosting his numbers last game despite facing a whopping 44.4 8MIB. Fingers-crossed he eclipses 1,000 yards, needing 77 in Week 18.
- Baltimore has ruled out Odell Beckham Jr., and listed rookie Zay Flowers, their leading receiver, as doubtful. This leaves Rashod Bateman with an increased workload (assuming he plays). The only other players at the position with targets in 2023 are Nelson Agholor (40) and Devin Duvernay (nine).
Let’s look at cushion (CUSH=distance in yards from the closest defender at the snap) and separation (SEP=distance in yards from the closest defender at the catch/incompletion):
Here we see the presence Baltimore will be missing with Flowers. He has received the most cushion, with defenses respecting his 4.4 speed, and maximizing with a seventh ranked SEP of 3.7 yards among the 84 qualifiers. Other primary receivers for the Ravens have been stale in comparison, below the mean in both.
Steelers’ George Pickens lands at the other extreme, with defenders giving him the least amount of cushion in the NFL, and just 2.3 SEP in the process (tenth least). He is providing great production regardless, coming off two 100-yard games, and now has 1,140 yards (12th), on 106 targets (25th), five touchdowns (T-27th), on 63 catches (34th) in 2023.
Diontae Johnson is also trending positively of late, particularly in SEP (2.9, 37th) after ranking very low not too long ago. He’s been given the highest 7.0 CUSH (13th) among Pittsburgh’s primary receivers. Johnson now has 82 targets (47th), 47 catches (T-49th), 621 yards (49th), and four touchdowns (63rd). Allen Robinson II has also improved of late, now with and 2.7 SEP (51st) on 6.8 CUSH (24th-most)
- Baltimore has one of the best TEs in the NFL in Mark Andrews but suffered a season-ending injury. Isaiah Likely has stepped up admirably and been very productive in his absence. Yards per reception (YPR), yards after catch (YAC), and touchdowns are a great starting point to highlight this:
Likely has been one of the best at the position in these terms, with 13.6 YPR which is second-best among 37 qualifiers, and ties for third with 7.5 YAC on 35 targets (T-least among 37 qualifiers). Very impressive, and definitely worrisome for Pittsburgh’s defense, struggling against the position in recent weeks. He also has twice the touchdowns (four) as Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth, all in the last four games, and two in Week 17. Huge key to try and limit Likely.
Freiermuth has 42 targets on the year now (T-28th), with 9.6 YPR (26th), 4.8 YAC (T-16th), and two touchdowns (T-19th). The last trip to the end zone was Week Three, seemingly an eternity ago, and hope that changes to close 2023. Important context to his average YAC is a high 7.1 CUSH numbers at the position, encouraging the short routes and lower YPR. Encouragingly, he had his best 14.7 YPR number of 2023 last game, and hope it’s similar against Baltimore.
Here are OL PFF-grades:
Viewing the entire group, Baltimore has the edge in both RBLK and PBLK. G Kevin Zeitler is another player that has already been ruled out. Here are the grades for the starters, if they play:
Baltimore:
LT Ronnie Stanley (62.1-RBLK, 72.9-PBLK).
LG John Simpson (58.5-RBLK, 62.7-PBLK).
C Tyler Linderbaum (78.2-RBLK, 75.5-PBLK).
RG Ben Cleveland (51.5-RBLK, 77.5-PBLK).
RT Morgan Moses (77.1-RBLK, 79.0-PBLK).
Steelers EDGE Alex Highsmith and Stanley could face off, and hopefully that bodes well in containing the run. The Ravens guards have their lowest RBLK grades, and hopefully that’s the case with Pittsburgh needing a strong showing in run defense, which of course starts in the trenches.
Linderbaum and Moses have their best-balanced grades, and of the matchup. The former played the Steelers well in Week Five, while Moses didn’t play (shoulder). That will be interesting to watch play out against Pittsburgh EDGE T.J. Watt, who is tied for the league-lead in sacks (17), hopefully adding multiple to that tally to close out 2023.
Steelers:
LT Dan Moore (57.8-RBLK, 38.6-PBLK).
LG Isaac Seumalo (69.0-RBLK, 65.4-PBLK).
C Mason Cole (64.8-RBLK, 40.8-PBLK).
RG James Daniels (58.6-RBLK, 60.4-PBLK).
RT Broderick Jones (64.7-RBLK, 54.0-PBLK).
Bully ball. That was the name of the Week 17 game and is likely the path two victory in the finale, and beyond if they get that privilege. The offense goes with the units’ success, or lack thereof, of course. Hopefully they can stack another dominant performance and close things out with a bang and fuel the offense to another encouraging outing against a less than full strength Ravens defense.
Defense. Baltimore has been a very strong unit in 2023. Here’s EPA across the league:
Baltimore is second in pass EPA, with Cleveland the only better defensive unit, while they land at the league-mean against the run (15th). Pittsburgh fares best against the pass (10th) and are 18th in run defense EPA. Baltimore will be without several key pieces, namely in the secondary, which hopefully Rudolph and the Steelers passing game can benefit from in the must-win game.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Ravens
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