Saturday’s challenge against the Indianapolis Colts can’t get here soon enough. A huge-game against two 7-6 teams, currently within the playoff-picture in the AFC-division, and the Pittsburgh Steelers looking to move past the stench of two-horrid-losses. Let’s dive into the matchup.
- Both teams are without their starters, with Colts rookie (fourth-overall-pick) Anthony Richardson playing four-games prior to a season-ending shoulder-injury, and Steelers Kenny Pickett out for a second-straight-game (ankle) and possibly longer.
Mitchell Trubisky will get his second-start of 2023, and has 463 passing-yards, 84 attempts, and a 60.7 percent completion rate to date. It’s Gardner Minshew for Indianapolis, who leads the outlook in passing-yards (2,524), attempts (378), and 63.2 completion rate.
Let’s examine completion-rates further, adding important-context of average-depth-of-target (ADOT) and accuracy-rates (ACC):
The visual shows that lower-ADOT largely equates to stronger accuracy-rates league-wide, as expected. The matchup-QBs are below the trendline though, with Minshew faring-best with 74.1 ACC (25th, 47-qualifiers), on a similar 7.4-ADOT (T-36th) to Pickett (7.5-ADOT, 71.8-ACC). So, it’s largely been a short-area passing-game with Minshew, and Pittsburgh’s defense will hopefully provide strong-tackling on these plays.
Trubisky is on the other end-of-the-spectrum, with an outlook-high 8.9-ADOT (NFL: T-12th), but poor 68.4 ACC (41st) that’s seventh-worst among qualifiers. Yes, aggression can be good, but his decision-making and accuracy are important to hopefully trend positively. Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled keeping drives moving (25th in third-down-conversions) and scoring-per-drive (28th), knock-on-wood it’s better in the crucial Week 15 matchup.
Another thing that stands out is time-to-throw numbers, with Minshew getting rid of it quickly:
Minshew has the eighth-quickest TTT, which makes sense after seeing his ADOT, and will likely continue as they face Pittsburgh’s pass-rush. The elite-EDGE-duo unfortunately landed in concussion-protocol following last-game. Thankfully, both have cleared the protocol. Hopefully there are no ill-effects, along with IDL Cameron Heyward and company being key in attempts to pressure their quick-passing-attack.
- Colts Jonathan Taylor is listed as doubtful and played just seven-games, but Zach Moss has filled in admirably: 751 yards (15th) 173 attempts (12th), and 4.4 YPC (14th). In comparison, Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris ranks one-spot-lower in attempts (13th), with 690-yards (19th), and 4.0 YPC (28th). Jaylen Warren still impressively leads RBs (min. 73 attempts, 46 qualifiers) with 5.6-YPC, on 109-attempts (38th), and 612-yards (28th).
Here’s to hoping we see a return to a more dominant rushing-attack, after just 82-yards, led by Trubisky’s team-high of 30 against New England’s stout run-defense (3.2-YPC, first). Indianapolis’ defense has the second-most rushing-TDs-allowed (19), and hoping Pittsburgh can lean on their ground-game and add to that stat in Week 15.
Here’s more context: rushing-yards-over-expected (RYOE) and rushing-percent-over-expected (RPOE):
Moss and Warren land on the top right, emphasizing they have contributed great quality and quantity, far exceeding expectations this season. Warren also holds a top rank in RYOE, and a 41.7-RPOE (11th), while Moss has a higher seventh-ranked 42.4-RPOE and fifth-RYOE. Very impressive indeed, and pairing Harris landing near-league-mean (at expectation), highlights the improved Pittsburgh-run-game in 2023, encouragingly.
The matchup also features two of the top north/south rushers of 2023, which efficiency from NextGenStats (NGS) measures:
This has played an important-factor in Moss and Warren’s impressive-seasons. The former ranks fourth, while Warren is sixth in their “no-nonsense” styles, getting vertical with great results in the process. Run defense will be key for both teams, and ironically the teams tie for 15th at 4.2 YPC allowed. Hopefully Pittsburgh can win that critical-battle.
- Colts Michael Pittman is the main-man, coming on strong in 2023:
He is second-league-wide in targets (132), a whopping number with four-games-remaining. Youth rounds out their room, with rookie Josh Downs (77 targets), and second-year-WR Alec Pierce. Pittsburgh’s George Pickens still leads the team (82-targets), Diontae Johnson’s 66 landing fourth in the outlook, and Allen Robinson II’s 39 the least.
With opportunity out of the way, here are their receiving-yards and catch-percentages in 2023 (min. 38 targets, 85 qualifiers):
The chart highlights the impressive-season Pittman is having, with 984-yards (13th), and sporting an outlook-high 68.8-catch-percentage (22nd), despite the high-volume. Pittsburgh will surely aim to limit Pittman, and expect CB Joey Porter Jr. to follow him, hopefully continuing his strong-rookie-campaign.
This could lead to bigger games from their secondary-receivers. Downs has the second-best 66.7 catch percentage in the matchup (T-29th), though he has been limited to less-than-50-yards in each of his last five-games. Pierce lands on the bottom-right, with 413-yards and a 56.3 catch rate, playing the deep target role with 14.9 intended air yards that ranks fourth. Knock on wood he doesn’t get loose in the explosive play department.
Johnson and Pickens landing close to Pierce in catch-percentage is extremely discouraging. Pickens 58.3 percent (61st), and Johnson’s 55.2 (70th) has been maddening, and highlights the sufferable pass-game-issues in 2023. Hopefully it’s a get-right-game for them, and Trubisky can improve from his putrid showing last week. Robinson leads the Steelers WRs in catch-rate (65.9, 34th), and hopefully gets more involved on short-money-down-situations.
- Most would agree Pittsburgh needs to get Pat Freiermuth more involved, with 35 targets in eight-games. Colts Kylen Granson leads them with the same number of targets in three additional games, but have four TEs with double-digit targets:
Very telling chart, with all four Colts TEs above the mean in YPC. Scary proposition considering Pittsburgh’s defensive struggles against the position in recent-weeks. Adding to that fear, five touchdowns from their position room (listed in parenthesis). Andrew Ogletree and Mo Alie-Cox have two-a-piece, with the latter providing one last-week, while Granson also has one. There is boom-bust there considering their catch-rates (56th-or-worse among 66 qualifiers), and hopefully Pittsburgh’s defense, namely LBs can necessarily step up for a better game.
Comparatively, Pittsburgh’s TEs are below-the-mean in YPC and C-R, Freiermuth ranking 40th and 47th, while Connor Heyward is 55th and 49th. Only two TDs from Steelers TEs in 2023, both from Freiermuth, and the last one coming way back in Week Three. Long overdue, and calling for this in Week 15.
Here are OL PFF-grades:
Indianapolis has the clear edge in the o-line-PFF-grades. Starting RT Braden Smith will not play (knee), leading the outlook with an 86.9-RBLK that ranks eighth among qualifiers league-wide (min. 250 snaps), and a 71.0 PBLK. Big drop-off to his likely replacement Blake Freeland with a 61.8 RBLK and 45.3 PBLK, including a team-high 31 pressures allowed. That bodes well for Pittsburgh, with Watt hopefully capitalizing on that matchup. At LT is Bernhard Raimann (78.4 PBLK, 72.2 RBLK), allowing a team-high four-sacks, and another seeming advantage for Highsmith.
C Ryan Kelly leads the outlook with an 81.3 PBLK (11th in NFL), along with a 77.0 RBLK. RG Will Fries is their fourth starter above the mean in both, just above it with a 66.3 RBLK and 65.6 PBLK, but has the most penalties (nine) in the outlook (T-ninth most league-wide). Didn’t expect to see five-time-pro-bowl LG Quenton Nelson that low in the grades, with a 78.4 PBLK that ties for 20th in the NFL and just one-sack-allowed, but a 57.1-RBLK that lower than any Steeler. It will be interesting to see how Pittsburgh’s d-line matches up with the Colts on Saturday.
LG Isaac Seumalo (questionable-shoulder) is the only Pittsburgh o-lineman above the matchup-mean (67.2 RBLK, 65.8 PBLK), with 20 pressures, no sacks allowed, and only one penalty in 2023. RG James Daniels leads the Steelers with a 70.8 PBLK (57th league-wide), along with a 62.8 PBLK, 14-pressures, no sacks allowed, and two penalties. RT Broderick Jones lands just below the matchup-mean (63.0 RBLK, 61.5 PBLK), 16-pressures, one-sack-allowed, and two-penalties.
C Mason Cole has a matchup-worst 39.8 PBLK (T-16th worst league-wide), with 24-pressures, two sacks allowed, and two penalties. He has progressed as a run-blocker through the season (66.5). Indianapolis will likely look to get their great DL DeForest Buckner matched up on Cole, who has the sixth-best PRSH grade at the position, and an 18th-ranked defensive grade.
Steelers LT Dan Moore (60.2 RBLK, 40.2 PBLK) bottoms the chart of expected-players for Week 15. The pass block grade is warranted, leading the outlook in all these unwanted stats: 40 pressures (seventh-most league-wide), 28-hurries (T-eighth most), seven-QB-hits (T-sixth most), and five sacks allowed (T-21st).
The Colts defense has 42 sacks in 2023, tied for third league-wide, including a strong-edge-rotation that will be a handful for Pittsburgh to try and stifle. Knock on wood that’s the case in Week 15.
Speaking of defense, the two biggest keys I’m eyeing start with an obvious one: points-allowed-per-game (Pts/G), along with takeaways:
Both teams have 21-takeaways this season which ties for seventh in the NFL, and Pittsburgh has the edge with 19.2-Pts/G, also seventh league-wide. Hopefully both ring true against Indianapolis’ offense, who have 20-turnovers (T-21st), but 24.2-Pts/G (eighth).
Minshew has 11 TDs and eight-interceptions (T-16th-most), and hopefully this plays into Pittsburgh’s hands as they aim to win the turnover battle, which is one of the most important-keys to a crucial-victory IMO.
Encouragingly, the Colts-defense has allowed 25.4-Pts/G (29th). The offensive-struggles for the Steelers in scoring situations are well documented (16.2-Pts/G, 27th). They’ve scored 20 points five times in 2023, but 18 points or less the last four (1-3 record). Considering this rough stretch, and the importance of this game, here’s to hoping Pittsburgh gets on the right side of the scoreboard in the crucial Week 15 AFC-matchup.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Colts
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
