The 6-4 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) next challenge is the Cincinnati Bengals (5-5), meeting for the first time within the tight AFC-North, and each coming off a divisional loss for a very important battle towards postseason aspirations. Let’s dive into the matchup.
- QB Jake Browning will get his first NFL start Sunday for Cincinnati, losing starter Joe Burrow last week with another injury (wrist). Browning relieved him last game, going 8-of-14 for 68 yards and a late-game touchdown-pass, but their loss to Baltimore well at hand (34-20).
Here’s a visual of Week 11, with YPA, ADOT, and completion rates:
The chart of Week 11 QBs helps us learn from Browning’s short NFL resume, when all but one of his attempts came. Though it’s a small sample, we see Browning leads the outlook with a 10.0 ADOT, ranking seventh of 30 qualifiers (min.-10 attempts).
While some have speculated Cincinnati being conservative with their backup, I wouldn’t expect their passing game to be uber-limited conceptually. We do see a dip in YPA (4.9, 25th) and 57.1 completion rate (23rd) with Browning, compared to Burrow tying for 14th and 20th.
- Steelers QB Kenny Pickett was painful, and in comparison had a 7.4 ADOT (T-19th). His 3.8 YPA (T-28th) and 53.6 completion rate (28th) was bottom-three last week, and worst in the outlook. Pittsburgh’s passing offense barely eclipsing 100-yards, the worst-output in a full-game from Pickett all year. Adjusting to the OC change will be fascinating to monitor, and hopefully it aids the unit with a spark as opposed to untimely growing pains in the crucial AFC-North showdown.
- Speaking of a spark, RB Jaylen Warren has been the brightest spot of Pittsburgh’s offense, particularly forcing-missed-tackles and leads the team in scrimmage yards (727, 35th league-wide), exceeding expectations:
As the visual highlights, Warren leads the NFL with a 2.08 RYOE, as the only RB at 2-plus and nearly a whole yard above his peers. He leads all RBs (min. 60 attempts) in average-rushing-yards (6.2), yards-after-contact (4.4), and a 198.5 elusive-rating (success/impact independent of run-blocking), with second-best coming in at 110.2. He’s coming off two 100-yard ground games, including a triple-explosive TD last week, and hopefully Pittsburgh’s backfield duo keep their recent success going.
Let’s look at RBs time-to-the-line of scrimmage (TLOS), eight-men-in-the-box percentage (8MIB), and rush-yards:
Here we get situational context to Warren’s impressive production, with a slightly-above-average TLOS, and seeing 8MIB at 12.5-percent (eighth-least), each ranking second in the matchup. I would expect the latter to rise a bit given his stellar-production, which will hopefully aid the pass-game that needs revitalizing.
Najee Harris has also contributed to Pittsburgh’s thankfully-improved run-game. Most refreshing is an encouraging-uptick in runs of 15-plus yards this season (nine), tied for second-most league-wide, compared to just seven in all of 2022. He has seen 8MIB below-league-average as well (14.8-percent), most in the outlook, paired with the longest TLOS landing him below-the-mean in each.
- Bengals RB Joe Mixon is a handful, and will likely be leaned on even more with their QB situation. He leads the outlook with 153 rush attempts (T-fifth), 605 rushing yards (13th) and four touchdowns (T-13th). Mixon gets to-the-line in a hurry (eighth-fastest), and has seen 8MIB fifth-least (9.2-percent). The latter isn’t too surprising with their stellar trio of WRs, and perhaps Pittsburgh can key in on Mixon more than usual sans Burrow and WR Tee Higgins, ruled out for Week 12 (hamstring).
WR Ja’Marr Chase is another tough matchup:
- Chase is one of ten WRs with 800-plus yards (833), despite commanding double-coverage often. CB Joey Porter Jr. is set to shadow Chase after an up-and-down performance against Amari Cooper (81.3-rating-against), but played admirably against DeAndre Hopkins (41.3-rating-against). Without S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Porter’s individual-success (or lack thereof) will be pivotal to the outcome.
Next, WRs percent-of-teams-air-yards (TAY), yards-after-catch (YAC), and catch-rates for the dot sizes:
Chase, and Steelers WR George Pickens land on similar points of the chart, comfortably above league-average in TAY and YAC. Pickens has the better marks, with 40.2 TAY (10th) and 5.8 YAC (12th), declining after a stellar top-three rank early in 2023, on 68 targets (T-28th). His 54.4 catch-rate is worst among Steelers though (12th-lowest among 85 qualifiers), amidst Pickett’s struggles to communicate/connect with his guys.
- Diontae Johnson is no exception, with a 55.3 catch-rate (15th-worst), particularly painful recently at 25-percent in each of the last two games. Here’s to hoping they remedy this, and build upon Johnson’s 25.5 TAY (36th), 4.1 YAC (36th), and 47 targets in six games. Allen Robinson II lands on the lower left, with the second-worst YAC (1.9), ninth-lowest TAY (11.3), and more reliable 64.7 catch-rate (41st) on 34 targets.
Chase has 38.9 TAY (13th), 5.5 YAC (18th), and 67-percent catch rate (32nd) on an outlook-high 106 targets (fifth), impressively. Tee Higgins is a big loss, landing similarly on the chart and missing time like Johnson. Tyler Boyd has a solid outlook-high 70.1 catch-rate (19th) on 67 targets, largely short-game with 19.3 TAY (57th), and 4.5 YAC (37th) just below Johnson.
YAC is a big hopeful improvement for Pittsburgh’s pass game, and key for the matchup on defense as well, and could see Boyd having a good game with the other weapons the Steelers will be looking to eliminate. Bengals CB1 Cam Taylor-Britt was also ruled out (quad), another factor that hopefully contributes to a stronger passing performance from the Steelers.
TE Pat Freiermuth returned for Pittsburgh last week, but garnered only one target on a screen-pass. Here’s to hoping for much more involvement, but not holding my breath with only nine catches in five games.
This chart of TEs ADOT, catch-rates, and targets is very telling for the matchup:
- Seeing the dot sizes league-wide emphasizes the point on Freiermuth, true-to-an-extent for each player in the matchup. Freiermuth has 14 targets (T-second-least), with a below-the-mean 5.9 ADOT (37th), and 64.3 catch-rate (T-eighth worst). All are much lower-than-expectation going into 2023, particularly the latter considering his sure hands (no drops). Each area should be primary focuses to aid the passing-game, with Pickett needing to utilize these men more.
Connor Heyward leads the outlook with 25 targets (33rd), but none last week, with a below-average 5.7 ADOT (T-38th among 51 qualifiers), and 68-percent catch-rate (36th). Darnell Washington does have a catch in each of the last three games, but only six targets and four catches in 2023.
Cincinnati has two TEs with 20-plus targets. Tanner Hudson has gotten much more involved the last three games (24 targets), with an impressive matchup-high 81.8 catch-rate (10th) and ADOT (34th), with the latter below-league average. Drew Sample also has an impressive 76.9 catch-rate (19th), on the substantially-lowest 1.3 ADOT league-wide, and least targets (13) in the matchup (one less than Freiermuth).
Irv Smith Jr. has just one target each of the last two games, compared to 21 this year (third in the matchup), and lands near Pittsburgh TEs in ADOT (4.7, 45th) and a 66.7 catch-rate (T-39th), including an outlook-high two drops, a likely factor to their shift at the position.
Here are OL PFF grades:
The grades are fairly even for both teams, and the best grades being below-70 highlight neither group being elite in 2023. Cincinnati has the edge in PBLK, with RBLK grades a bit more even.
C Ted Karras is the only Bengal above-the-mean in each (68.8RBLK,61.8PBLK), but allowed a matchup-high six sacks. RT Jonah Williams tops Cincinnati in PBLK (65.9), and a 62.7RBLK at the outlook average, drawing the tough task against Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt, who hopefully goes off. RG Alex Cappa is near the outlook mean in both (62.5RBLK,56.8PBLK). LT Orlando Brown fares better on his 62.6PBLK, compared to a 58.7RBLK, and Pittsburgh’s Alex Highsmith will hopefully have an even stronger game than last week against him.
- LG Cordell Volson has a 64.7RBLK, but matchup-low 28.7 PBLK. Steelers DL Cameron Heyward has previously given him fits, and hopefully Pittsburgh can exploit their suspect interior particularly against the pass. A likely Steelers disadvantage comes at LT Dan Moore (55.6RBLK,30.3PBLK) drawing the tough-assignment against Trey Hendrickson, a great pass rusher (90.6-grade), fourth-best in 2023.
Pittsburgh’s o-line has played much better of late, especially RG James Daniels, with an outlook-high 68.6PBLK, and 65.9RBLK. LG Isaac Seumalo is also above-the-mean in both (63.8PBLK,63.4RBLK), followed by RT Broderick Jones (60.9RBLK,59.5PBLK), and
C Mason Cole (62.2RBLK,31.7PBLK).
- There are several key data-points I found in my recent AFC-North Division Recap, with red-zone being big IMO:
Pittsburgh is above the mean in both, with 30-RZAtt (T-10th) and allowing just 40-RZPct (fourth). Impressive, and even if Cincinnati’s offense moves the ball, hopefully the Steelers stand firm and limit them in their territory. The Bengals defense has allowed 39-RZATT, third-most league-wide, but are much closer to the NFL-mean in RZPct (17th). Hopefully the opportunities re-occur, and Pittsburgh’s offense can step up and finally score more points.
