Off the bye week, the 3-2 Pittsburgh Steelers will hopefully show some much-needed adjustments and improvements against the 3-3 Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Let’s dive into the matchup.
- QB Matthew Stafford is playing well, among the best in passing yards through Week Six:
Stafford has 1,677 pass yards (third), a 61.2 completion rate (29th), six touchdowns (T-18th), five interceptions (T-22nd), and an 83.5 passer rating (23rd). He leads the league in PFF’s big-time-throw stat with 18, while having the fifth best in turnover-worthy play rate (1.9-percent). Stafford ties for the seventh fastest time to throw (2.54), but taken 16 sacks (T-ninth most).
In comparison, Steelers QB Kenny Pickett now has 1,027 pass yards (28th), a 59.7 completion rate (31st), five touchdowns (T-23rd), four interceptions (T-16th), and a 78.8 passer rating (29th). Just four big time throws (T-26th), a 2.7 turnover-worthy play rate (T-14th), 2.83 time to throw (21st), and 14 sacks (T-14th most).
Highlighted further here, the Rams are the NFL’s top passing offense in completed air yardage, while Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed the most. Here’s a visual to reiterate that scary fact:
- Stafford has the best 7.3 CAY in the NFL, facing a Pittsburgh defense that are dead last with 7.8 CAY allowed. The Steelers must win this lopsided matchup in my opinion in hopes of victory.
Pickett’s 5.1 CAY ranks 27th (35 qualifiers), and has 7.6 IAY (22nd). Stafford has an 8.7 IAY (seventh), with his CAY is only a few ticks below Pickett’s IAY. On paper, clear advantage LA, and hopefully Pittsburgh’s defense can slow down their potent passing attack.
- A possible aid in that goal is the Rams decimated RB room. Most notable is Kyren Williams, a big loss due to injury:
The visual highlights his strong season to date, featuring a healthy 4.7 YPA, one of only four players with 300-plus yards after contact (304), and six touchdowns (T-third most). All very impressive, but found some very important context:
- Williams is the only qualifying RB to not face eight men in the box, despite tying for the fifth-most rush attempts. Crazy, but does make sense given their pass game and NFL high 11-personnel rate (94-percent), and could make for easier opportunities regardless of the RB if Pittsburgh’s defense keeps this trend going.
Second-stringer Ronnie Rivers is also out. The only healthy back with offensive playing time in 2023 is rookie sixth-rounder Zach Evans, with only four attempts for ten yards. Royce Freeman and Myles Gaskin could also see time against the Steelers defense that ranks 27th in 4.8 YPA, who hopefully positively trend in the matchup.
Comparatively, Steelers Najee Harris’ 19-percent 8MIB faced is just below the mean (28th, 48 qualifiers) on 63 attempts (27th). He’s now 25th with 247 rushing yards (3.9 YPA, 28th), 204 yards after contact (24th), and the RB room is yet to reach the end zone.
Jaylen Warren has a 17.6 8MIB rate (32nd) on 34 attempts (T-42nd), and 86 yards after contact (43rd). His impact has been at receiver, with 166 yards and 204 in YAC, which ranks second at the position. The Rams have missed 41 tackles on defense per PFR (24th), so hopefully Warren and Pittsburgh’s playmakers can have a good day in yards after contact/catch.
- WR. Puka Nacua leads the Rams in receiving, an increased role while Cooper Kupp was on IR, and continues to play well:
- Nacua’s 598 receiving yards ranks fourth, and Kupp is coming off of two 100-plus receiving games. Pittsburgh will likely have Diontae Johnson back, which should boost the offense after his injury in the season opener. George Pickens stepped up, providing 393 yards (17th), but has the lowest 56.4 catch rate of WRs with at least 350 yards. Highlights some of the pass game struggles, as defenses have been able to focus on him.
Next, WRs percent of teams air yards (TAY) and yards after catch (YAC):
The visual emphasizes Pickens increased role, with 43.3 TAY (sixth, 93 qualifiers). He’s also provided much stronger YAC than his rookie year, though his 6.6 average (eighth) is coming back to earth (triple-explosive TD in week two). He got more downfield targets last game, catching four of five with explosive air-yardage, and the 41-yard go ahead touchdown. Hopefully we see more of the latter as Johnson will likely absorb more of the short route responsibilities.
Kupp has an even stronger 7.1 YAC (seventh) in the limited sample, just above Pickens. Tackling is important every game, and a big key for Pittsburgh’s defense that currently ties for 19th in missed tackles (37) per PFR. Nacua ranks 20th in TAY (33.6) and has 4.2 YAC (41st), while Tutu Atwell has 25.3 TAY (43rd), 2.8 YAC (71st), and 309 yards (39th), with expectedly less usage upon Kupp’s return.
Calvin Austin III has 4.9 YAC (29th), but like Pickens, was padded by a triple-explosive touchdown. Hopefully Johnson’s return benefits him, allowing more slot and YAC production with his speed, as opposed to primary receiver duties. Austin and Allen Robinson II are both below average in TAY, with the latter having a low 2.0 YAC (sixth-least). Not concerning, with short game/sure handed contributions, and successful plays.
- Tight end. Here are receiving yards and catch percentages through week six (min. three targets):
Tyler Higbee leads the way for the Rams, with 234 yards on 32 targets, each ranking 11th. Interestingly, all TEs in the matchup have below average catch percentages, with Higbee topping the group at 70.0, and ranking 48th out of 78 qualifiers. Brycen Hopkins has been used sparingly, with three targets for 26 yards and a 66.7 catch rate (T-51st). Also, no Rams TE has a TD in 2023.
- The Steelers position room has lacked production overall, and are all well below average in both data points. Pat Freiermuth will miss his second consecutive game after optimism he’d return this week. Lower than expected numbers prior to this: 13 targets (T-33rd), 53 yards (48th), and 61.5 catch percentage (68th) in four games. Two touchdowns though, both inside the 20. The offense is already struggling to get to the red zone (last in the league) and score. Unfortunate news.
Connor Heyward is the second most targeted for Pittsburgh (nine), but a catch rate of 55.6 (sixth-worst), while Darnell Washington has three targets and a 33.3 catch percentage (second-lowest). Pickett and the position room really need to step up and get their connection going, even without Freiermuth.
Here are OL PFF grades:
The top name in the matchup is familiar to Steelers fans, Rams Kevin Dotson. He has succeed overall filling in at RG the last three games, with an 85.1 RBLK and 73.1 PBLK. Much better 85.3 OVR than the 65.4 he had with Pittsburgh in 2022 at LG. Joe Noteboom started the season at RG for LA, last playing in week four, and has their lowest grades overall (51.0 RBLK, 24.7 PBLK). He practiced fully Friday after being limited this week, but seems Dotson will get the nod against his former team with his quality of play. Rounding out their interior is C Coleman Shelton (67.2 RBLK, 38.4 PBLK) and rookie second round pick Steve Avila at LG (61.5, 59.2).
- RT Rob Havenstein has played well (76.8 RBLK, 63.3 PBLK), with his worst grade by far a 27.7 PBLK against 49ers star pass rusher Nick Bosa. Hopefully, history repeats itself with Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt. On the other side is LT Alaric Jackson, who has a 56.2 PBLK and LA’s lowest RBLK (48.9). Steelers Alex Highsmith is good in run defense, and hopefully he’s impactful overall.
- Pittsburgh’s only above the mean player in the matchup is rookie LT Broderick Jones (71.1 RBLK, 56.0 PBLK). The big question is who will/should start, with Dan Moore back healthy. Indications seem to be pointing to Moore, but the film and grades (worst 42.2 RBLK and 19.9 PBLK) would make this a curious decision as Jones filled in well.
LG Isaac Seumalo has the best 76.4 PBLK in the matchup, and 57.4 RBLK. RT Chukwuma Okorafor has an above average 56.2 PBLK (low bar) and 54.3 RBLK. RG James Daniels has the final above average grade (62.2 RBLK) but 38.7 PBLK, who’s set to return after missing two games. C Mason Cole is below the mean in both (58.4 RBLK, 26.2 PBLK), and can hopefully remedy his play that’s been a liability this year.
Defense: The earlier CAY point is my main concern, but looking at defenses scoring/turnover rates per drive creates optimism:
Pittsburgh’s defense is above average in both, particularly a fifth turnover rank (18-percent), along with a 34.4-percent scoring percentage (13th). LA is below average, with a 39.7-percent scoring (23rd) and 7.9 turnover rate (24th). Aaron Donald is their marquee name, with 30 total pressures, best among IDL. Hopefully the Steelers defense fuels another victory.
Opponent Scouting Reports: Offense Defense
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
