The 2-1 Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off an improved offensive performance, with contributions from all three phases for their second straight win. Up next are the 1-2 Houston Texans, who’ve had their struggles, but are coming off a nice 37-17 victory against Jacksonville. Let’s dive into the matchup.
- Kenny Pickett trended positively last week after a tough start to 2023, including his first NFL game with multiple passing touchdowns. Rookie C.J. Stroud has shown some good things, including two touchdowns in each of the last two games and no interceptions this season.
Here are passing touchdowns and interceptions, with ratios as their dot sizes:
Here we see both QBs have four passing touchdowns, which is above the mean among their 34 peers with a minimum of 30 attempts. The difference so far has been interceptions, as Stroud is one of five players without a pick, and his +4 ratio ties for sixth in the NFL currently.
- Impressive for a young quarterback, but there is another side to the coin in terms of turnovers. Stroud is tied for the most fumbles in the NFL with four, and faces a “ball hunting: Pittsburgh defense, with EDGE J. Watt and linebacker Cole Holcomb tie for the league-lead in forced fumbles (two). In comparison, Pickett hasn’t fumbled, but has three interceptions for a +1 ratio. Here’s to hoping he can stay on the right side of that number against the Texans, and Pittsburgh’s defense on top in turnover battle.
- Pittsburgh’s run game improved on both sides of the ball against the Raiders last week, led by Najee Harris’ outlook high 139 yards and four 15+ yard runs this season.
- A huge key will be avoiding negative plays, which must improve this game. Houston’s Damien Pierce leads the matchup with 40 carries and the only rushing touchdown, but just 100 rushing yards. Devin Singletary is third with 20 attempts for 70 yards.
Here’s a look at efficiency (EFF = yards traveled per rush yards gained, lower numbers = north/south runners) and average rush yards (AVG):
Out of 42 qualifiers (minimum of 20 attempts), Pierce has the third largest 6.01 EFF in the NFL, along with the fourth lowest 2.5 AVG. The chart is very telling, with most successful runners in AVG at small EFF numbers. Singletary has been the most north/south at 3.66 EFF (15th), but is an exception with a 3.5 AVG.
Harris has a 4.0 AVG that leads the matchup, with his yards and attempts increasing each week. Low bar though, considering the teams’ current rushing yards ranks: HOU 28th, PIT 30th.
- This leads me to a huge key on defense in my opinion:
The Texans are currently tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed with seven, and the Steelers are looking for their first one on offense. Here’s to hoping this comes to fruition, and steers to more optimism in the ground game identity Pittsburgh set out to create this offseason. Houston’s defense is much better in pass defense, and has only allowed two touchdowns in 2023, which hammers that point even further.
Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed more in the passing game, a below average five touchdowns, with cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace each allowing two. This will be huge in limiting Houston’s offense, who having increased their scoring output in each game (nine, 20, 17).
Speaking of the passing game, let’s look at WRs. Houston has three players with 15 receptions which leads the outlook: Nico Collins (260 yards, TD), Nathaniel “Tank” Dell (251 yards, 2 TDs), and Robert Woods (165 yards).
We saw some improvements in Pittsburgh’s passing game, with another good outing from George Pickens, who now has 13 catches (238 yards, TD). Calvin Austin III got past the defense for a 72-yard triple explosive touchdown last game, boosting his yards to 119 on nine catches this year, and Allen Robinson II has 11 receptions for 100 yards.
Let’s add more context with average yards after catch (YAC) and average intended air yards (IAY):
Pickens continues to show great strides in route running, building on his already strong second rank in YAC to a whopping 9.38. This is huge sans Diontae Johnson, and hopefully continues once he returns and in this game. His 10.41 IAY is just below the mean of 88 qualifiers, a big difference in his deep role last year. Similarly, Austin has 10.69 IAY, and 5.93 YAC (15th).
Collins and Dell each land above the mean in both datapoints. Collins ranks sixth with 7.16 in YAC, along with 12.88 IAY (27th). Dell’s production has heated up through each game, and has 12.04 IAY (33rd), along with 5.21 YAC (25th).
- So, the matchup has four players in the top 23 in YAC, and the defenses better be ready to tackle. Houston has 35 missed tackles to Pittsburgh’s 18, so hopeful edge to the black-and-gold.
Robinson and Woods land below the mean in both data points as short yardage/chain moving players. They have similar YAC totals just below three, while Woods has the IAY edge (10.03), with Robinson at 6.51 IAY. With a small sample size still and game circumstances have been volatile for Houston, it will be interesting to see how it shakes out Sunday.
- Pickett and Pat Freiermuth had their best game in terms of connection and yards last week, three catches and 41 yards (only five yards previously), and now has two red zone touchdowns in three games.
Here’s a visual that highlights the connection (catch percentage) and receptions for the position through week three:
- Freiermuth has a low 55.6 catch percentage (five receptions on nine targets), all far less than many expected going into the season. Hopefully last games positive trend continues against the Texans. A similar point can be made for Houston’s Dalton Schultz, who is the most targeted in the outlook (13), but has just seven receptions, a 53.8 catch percentage, 47 yards, and is yet to score a touchdown.
Secondary TEs have had quite a different start to 2023, with Brevin Jordan catching all four of his targets for 40 yards including a red zone touchdown for Houston, while Steelers Connor Heyward has two receptions on five targets (40 catch percentage) for 19 yards and no touchdowns. The Texans defense is a better unit in pass defense, and it will be interesting to see how the units fare on Sunday.
- Last but certainly not least, the Here are their PFF grades through week three:
Both teams have had their struggles, highlighted by the top graded player being in the 70’s. This is Houston RT George Fant, who has a 74.4 PBLK and 71.6 RBLK grade, and fully expect Watt to stack yet another dominant performance in his strong start to 2023.
The next highest grade in terms of pass blocking is LT Laremy Tunsil, who hasn’t played since week one due to a knee injury, and is unlikely to play. Josh Jones shifted into that role after starting at LG, and is also unlikely to suit up (hand). Promoted from the practice squad was Austin Deculus, who is yet to play on offensive in the NFL. EDGE rusher Alex Highsmith is likely licking his chops and can hopefully take advantage.
This has created opportunity for former Steeler Kendrick Green to play his original LG position in college. Following a rough rookie year at center and not playing last season for Pittsburgh, Green has a 64.5 PBLK and 54.6 RBLK in two games. C Jarrett Patterson (62.7 RBLK, 60.2 PBLK) and RG Shaq Mason (69.1 RBLK, 55.5 PBLK) round out their interior, and the Steelers defensive line will surely be looking to win that matchup, and Green in particular.
Pittsburgh’s unit made some strides in run blocking, particularly LG Isaac Seumalo’s best game of 2023 (81.9 PBLK, 72.4 RBLK) and was the highest graded offensive player in week three. Hopefully he will continue his positive trend in this game, and build upon his season grades (65.0 PBLK, 53.4 RBLK). RG James Daniels has the highest team RBLK (62.2) and was ruled out for the game. Nate Herbig will get his first season action and hope he fares well. C Mason Cole has struggled, particularly as a pass blocker (57.6 RBLK, 26.8 PBLK worst at position) compared to his steady performance last season.
RT Chukwuma Okorafor (54.1 RBLK, 53.4 PBLK) draws the tough assignment of rookie third overall pick Will Anderson Jr., and will be looking to rebound from last game against Raiders Maxx Crosby. LT Dan Moore (41.7 RBLK, 19.9 PBLK) had his best game by far last week (65.1 PBLK, 58.6 RBLK), and hope he can limit his pressures allowed, that are still second-most in the league (18).
Steelers P Pressley Harvin was also ruled out, so recently signed Brad Wing will step in.
Opponent Scouting Reports: Offense Defense
Injury Reports: Steelers Texans
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
