The 1-1 Pittsburgh Steelers are aiming to right several issues, particularly on offense and run defense, despite getting a week two victory. Up next are the Las Vegas Raiders, who hold the same record, and are coming out of a 38-10 blowout loss to the Bills. Let’s dive into the matchup.
- Kenny Pickett has left much to be desired in his second season, and will hopefully be able to return to some strengths we saw at the end of the 2022 season and this summer for Pittsburgh. Jimmy Garoppolo is in his first season with the Raiders, and adjusting to the passing scheme compared to his time with the 49ers.
Here are quarterbacks completed air yards (CAY) and Intended air yards (IAY):
Garoppolo ranks fourth in the NFL with 7.04 CAY, and 8.07 IAY (11th). Sure, game circumstance and small sample factor into this, but it’s a substantial difference from his 4.7 CAY (fifth least) and IAY that tied for seventh lowest with SF in 2022. Pickett is below average in both, with a 3.98 CAY (eek) and 6.63 IAY, which rank 27th and 24th out of 33 qualifiers.
I found some other numbers interesting for the matchup. Both QBs rank high in aggressiveness (throwing into tight windows), Pickett ranking third and Garoppolo sixth. Each have three interceptions on the year, while the latter has the touchdown edge (3/2). The better decision maker and stingier defense will likely come out on top.
Garoppolo ranks eighth in air yards to the sticks, Pickett 24th. Garoppolo also has the edge in passer rating (19th) and a strong completion percentage (fifth), with Pickett ranking 30th and 28th. Can’t wait to see it play out, hopefully a much-needed positive trend for Pickett overall.
- Both teams have struggled to get their running games going. Josh Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards last season with 1,653 for the Raiders, and has only 46 through two games on 28 attempts (1.6 average). As a team, Las Vegas has only 116 rushing yards in 2023 (30th). Unfortunately, Pittsburgh is one of two teams that have been worse, with 96 (31st). Najee Harris has the majority of them (74), highlighted by three 15+ rushes, and the rest has been ugly.
Here’s some context to the lead backs’ opportunities, with time to the line of scrimmage (TLOS) and eight men in the box percent (8MIB):
Harris jumps out right away at the bottom left, with the longest TLOS in the NFL (3.63). Steelers running backs have been bombarded in the backfield, with the link one of the many examples and rare positive outcomes. Adding to the pain is Harris has seen 8MIB just 6.25 percent, ranking 30th out of 37 qualifiers.
The o-line must be better regardless of the numbers, in hopes of anything to change. Jaylen Warren has 2.9 yards per attempt (nine carries), it’s not a Harris issues as some claim. I like the chances for the position to be impactful as receivers, where Warren has been great (78 yards), considering the soft coverages the Raiders tend to employ.
Jacobs will be a handful to try and contain, and we see teams have committed 8MIB 25 percent of the time (T-14th). This points to the much tougher situations he, and the Raiders o-line have faced. It will be interesting to see how Pittsburgh’s struggling run defense (386 yards, dead last) fare this week, and if they respect Jacobs with 8MIB. They probably should, but downside is this could lead to plays allowed through the air, including Jacobs (74 yards).
Speaking of which, let’s look at wide receiver. A big challenge defensively is Davante Adams, a dominate force that the Steelers will be looking to minimize. Pittsburgh is continuing to adjust without Diontae Johnson. George Pickens is showing good things and growth in year two, leading Pittsburgh with 16 targets (Warren is second with 11).
Here’s percent of teams air yards (TAY) and average yards after catch (YAC) for the position:
Pickens is the only player in the matchup above the mean in both, highlighted by 9.23 in YAC that ranks second-best in the NFL. His 71-yard touchdown last week was an encouraging example of his growth after ranking in the bottom of the league in YAC in 2022, becoming a more well-rounded route runner that aids his increased role sans Johnson. Pickens also leads the team with 38.46 TAY (17th) out of 73 qualifiers. Hopefully this encouraging start continues, along with Pickett’s accuracy, to maximize and be even more impactful (52.94 catch rate).
Adams leads the matchup with 45.17 TAY that ranks sixth league-wide, highlighting the volume and attention Pittsburgh’s defense will likely give him. He also has the most catches (12) and targets (17) in the matchup, along with a touchdown to date. Pittsburgh’s defense will likely have to pick their poison between Jacobs and Adams, with the difficulty of stopping two marquee players. With the run defense woes, and priority to remedy it, could see a big game from Adams.
The remaining players land on the lower left, each with ten targets. Allen Robinson lands at the league-mean with 3.93 YAC, providing successful plays. Hopefully more chain-movers moving forward. Really hoping Calvin Austin can improve upon his 2.22 YAC (60th), considering his explosive play ability. Pickett missed an opportunity for one last week, and think they’ll connect for one Sunday. Jakobi Meyers has done some good things, including a matchup leading 90 percent catch rate and two touchdowns. Secondary receivers tend to have big games against Pittsburgh, hopefully not the case with Meyers.
- Similar to last weeks matchup, the position has been quiet overall as receivers. Here are receiving stats at the position:
The group lands on the bottom left in receptions and yards. Austin Hooper leads the matchup in both, catching all three targets for 40 yards. Pittsburgh tight ends lead the way in targets (dot size), starting with Pat Freiermuth’s five and the only touchdown, but just two catches for five yards. Unimaginable going into the season, and hopefully is more impactful this week.
Connor Heyward wasn’t targeted last week, and has two receptions on four targets and 19 yards. Just 24 yards from the position, wow. Also hope Darnell Washington joins the party with his first catch. Raiders rookie Michael Mayer has just one target for two yards.
Here are OL grades:
The visual highlights Pittsburgh’s o-line struggles, with the Raiders having the better marks overall. The lower marks for each team are run blocking, expectedly. Las Vegas has not allowed the sack on the season, a streak that better come to an end in hopes of Steelers victory.
LT Kolton Miller has the best-balanced grades (82.7 PBLK, 72.8 RBLK. RT Jermaine Eluemunor mans the other end, and has 60 grades in both (69.5 RBLK, 67.9 PBLK). Expect the Pittsburgh edge rushers to have another great game, T.J. Watt in particular.
RG Greg Van Roten has a solid 81.7 PBLK, along with a lower 64.1 RBLK. Center Andre James is the final player above the mean in both (70.8 PBLK, 59.7 RBLK). LG Dylan Parham has the lowest singular grade for LV (52 RBLK), along with a 75.3 PBLK. Hopefully this plays into the Steelers d-line showing more in run defense. Hoping rookie Keeanu Benton to have a more impactful game in Cameron Heyward’s absence.
It’s been bad overall for Pittsburgh, and the grades reflect that. RG James Daniels has the only above average grade, but it’s a 60 in RBLK, whoof. LG Isaac Seumalo has the best team PBLK (57.5), along with a 38.6 RBLK in an underachieving start with the Pittsburgh. RT Chukwuma Okorafor (55.4 PBLK, 47.5 RBLK) and C Mason Cole (45.2 RBLK, 38.7 PBLK) have unfortunately struggled as well.
It’s been particularly rough matchups and play for LT Dan Moore to open the year, with a 32.8 RBLK and incredibly low 11.9 PBLK, the second lowest mark in the NFL through two weeks. Hopefully the group comes out angry and ready to get things on track, particularly needing to execute better early and often.
Defense:
In terms of expected points added, PIT holds the advantage in the matchup (6th Pass EPA, 22nd Run EPA), and will hopefully come to fruition along with improvements in run defense. LV is below average in both, 28th Pass EPA (five TDS allowed) and 31st Run EPA (4.9 YPA). If the Steelers offense doesn’t look much better, it will be very concerning.
Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby is another tough test, and the marquee name on defense. He moves around a bit, but has predominately played on the left. If this is the case, Okorafor will draw that tough test. Be sure and check out the Steelers Depot scouting reports on the Raiders for more specific defensive player analysis.
Injury Reports: Steelers Raiders
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
