The Wild Card weekend of the playoff has come and gone and it is time to look at the TOX results from the 4 games. The Houston Texans had a plus 5 TOX and easily took care of the Cincinnati Bengals. The New York Giants had a plus 3 TOX against the Atlanta Falcons and easily won. The Pittsburgh Steelers did not reach the magic plus 2 number. Had they had one more explosive play or turnover, or allowed one less of each, they likely win that game against the Denver Broncos. How fitting that the final play was explosive as the Steelers were plus 2 at that point. The New Orleans Saints and the Detroit Lions battled to a dead even TOX. Those types of games can go either way and this time it went to the Saints.
In the Divisional Round we will have the Broncos on the road against the New England Patriots. The Patriots defense is substitutable to the big play, so Tim Tebow will likely have to have another big game or Tom Brady will have to turn the ball over in order for the Broncos to win. The Saints take on the San Francisco 49ers, who led the regular season with a plus 33 TOX stat. If the Saints do not turn the ball over, and are able to hit for a few more explosive plays than the 49ers, I think they can win this game. The 49ers offense is not that explosive and the last thing they want to do is to get into a shoot-out. The Texans take on the Baltimore Ravens and I really like the Texans chances in this game. They are just explosive enough on offense with Andre Johnson and Arian Foster and their defense rivals that of the Ravens. We have seen the Ravens have some stinkers this year and the Texans are no fluke team. Lastly we have the Giants against the Green Bay Packers. The only way the Giants win is to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers and force turnovers. Eli Manning is good, but can\’t be expected to match Rodgers in a shoot-out. Turnovers will win this game.
If you are just finding this, make sure to look back at the links below to get a better understanding of what the TOX stat actually is and how it works. Week 1 is a great place to start as it also includes a video explaining it all.
Previous Weeks
Week 1 TOX Stats
Week 2 TOX Stats
Week 3 TOX Stats
Week 4 TOX Stats
Week 5 TOX Stats
Week 6 TOX Stats
Week 7 TOX Stats
Week 8 TOX Stats
Week 9 TOX Stats
Week 10 TOX Stats
Week 11 TOX Stats
Week 12 TOX Stats
Week 13 TOX Stats
Week 14 TOX Stats
Week 15 TOX Stats
Week 16 TOX Stats
Week 17 TOX Stats
| Wild Card Week | Offense | Defense | Differentials | TOX | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass 20+ | Run 20+ | Pass 20+ | Run 20+ | 20+ DIFF | TO DIF | TOX | W/L |
| Houston Texans | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| New York Giants | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | W |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| New Orleans Saints | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| Detroit Lions | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | L |
| Denver Broncos | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | W |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | -3 | L |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | -3 | -5 | L |
