Nothing is a guarantee in the NFL, but Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a strong track record when starting a season 3-1 or better. In fact, it’s flawless in one sense. Here’s the trend line the Steelers are currently following.
This is now Tomlin’s eighth time starting with at least a 3-1 record. The seven other times? The playoffs.
At worst, they’ve turned these starts into 10 wins, including just last season. But they also managed 12 wins three different times (2008, 2010, 2020) and even 13 once in 2017.
Both of Tomlin’s Super Bowl appearances started with a 3-1 record, and the Steelers’ last playoff win in the 2016 season started with a 3-1 record before falling to the New England Patriots in the conference championship game.
After the first month of the season, there are only two teams with a better record than the Steelers, and only one in the AFC. And yes, if we want to get way ahead of ourselves, they technically control their own fate for the AFC’s 1-seed and a first-round bye.
If the season ended today, Pittsburgh would host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round.
I can’t remember a season with a clearer path to the playoffs this early. History says the Steelers will finish with at least 10 wins. Whatever the record is, the division crown is ripe for the taking. With Joe Burrow out injured for three months and the Baltimore Ravens suffering several key injuries over the last week, the AFC North slate will not be the gauntlet that it normally is.
Even if the Ravens get healthy ahead of their December and January matchups against the Steelers, they may have already dug themselves too deep a hole to climb out of by then. They started the season 1-3 with a moderately difficult schedule over the next month. Nnamdi Madubuike is out for the season, and players like Marlon Humphrey, Roquan Smith, and Broderick Washington should miss at least a few weeks.
Keep Aaron Rodgers upright, and the Steelers should cruise into the playoffs. They went all-in with Rodgers and one of the oldest rosters in the league with the intention of finally ending their playoff-win drought. History says they have a decent chance at doing so, at least for now.
