The Pittsburgh Steelers made a number of significant moves this offseason, adding star power to their roster.
And yet, one analyst believes the Steelers will have their worst season since 2003.
NFL Network’s Adam Rank, predicting the record for all 32 teams in the league going game by game, has the Steelers finishing 6-11 on the season.
Here’s how his game-by-game prediction looks.
Week 1 — at Jets (Loss)
Week 2 — vs. Seahawks (Loss)
Week 3 — at Patriots (Win)
Week 4 — vs. Vikings, in Dublin (Win)
Week 5 — Bye Week
Week 6 — vs. Browns (Win)
Week 7 — at Bengals, TNF (Loss)
Week 8 — vs. Packers, SNF (Loss)
Week 9 — vs. Colts (Win)
Week 10 — at Chargers, SNF (Loss)
Week 11 — vs. Bengals (Loss)
Week 12 — at Bears (Loss)
Week 13 — vs. Bills (Loss)
Week 14 — at Ravens (Loss)
Week 15 — vs. Dolphins, MNF (Win)
Week 16 — at Lions (Loss)
Week 17 — at Browns (Loss)
Week 18 — vs. Ravens (Win)
That’s quite the prediction from Rank. He has a five-game losing streak worked in there, and has the Steelers losing some surprising games, like their home opener against the Seattle Seahawks, Week 12 at Chicago, and Week 17 at Cleveland.
If the Steelers were to win those three games, they’d still only be 9-8. But that is much better than a disastrous 6-11 season and their worst season since 2003 when the Steelers went 6-10.
Of course, that season set up the opportunity to draft Ben Roethlisberger, and the rest is history. The Steelers are looking at the 2026 NFL Draft class with a number of draft picks as a way to get their franchise quarterback. So, it could all work out in the end for the Black and Gold.
But 6-11 after everything they did this offseason seems entirely unrealistic for the Steelers. Especially considering who their coach is.
For Rank, the season comes down to the five-game stretch in Weeks 10-14. In that stretch, the Steelers play the Chargers on the road, Bengals at home, Bears on the road, Bills at home and Ravens on the road.
In those five games, Rank shockingly has the Steelers going 0-5 and ultimately having their first losing season under Mike Tomlin.
“Look at some of these teams. These are four games that are gonna be pivotal on, if you will finish above .500 or not, if you will make the playoffs,” Rank said of the tough stretch in the Steelers’ schedule. “But even though this is going to be a Steelers home game at SoFi Stadium, I’m gonna say that’s a loss [to the Chargers]. I think they get swept by the Cincinnati Bengals. So now you got the Bills and the Ravens. You got some work to do.
“You don’t have a lot of wiggle room here if you’re gonna finish above .500. But I think this is loss. Is this it? Is this the end of it?”
The Steelers have had some tough stretches at times within seasons. They did just have a five-game losing streak last year to end a once-promising season. Could it happen again?
Rank believes so, and it comes in the middle part of the season where things could really go off the rails for Pittsburgh.
If it does? Well, Tomlin’s non-losing season streak could be in real jeopardy. In this scenario with Rank, that’s what happens, especially after the Steelers get off to a tough start in his prediction, starting the year 4-4 before eventually falling to 5-9.
Though the Steelers salvage a win late in the year against the Ravens in Rank’s prediction and keep Baltimore from winning the AFC North, a 6-11 prediction is an ugly mark for the Steelers.
“The dream dies. It officially dies,” Rank said. “Mike Tomlin finishes below .500, unless you fire him right here or something like that. But still it’s gonna happen. The Pittsburgh Steelers are gonna finish with just six wins.”
Rank’s NFL Network colleague Cynthia Frelund has the Steelers’ wins projection at 8.3 on the year, which falls just below the 8.5 over/under the Steelers have.
Clearly, Rank is hammering the under on the Steelers with six wins, unlike some other analysts across the NFL media landscape.
That could be a painful season for the Steelers. But in the long run, it might be necessary.
