Today, I’m continuing to look at elements of new QB Aaron Rodgers’ play and what it could mean for the 2025 Pittsburgh Steelers. Over the middle of the field is a part of the passing game that can exploit a defense if used properly. The downside is that many, including head coach Mike Tomlin, think turnovers happen in the middle of the field, which is valid.
The goal of this article is to look at Rodgers’ 2024 over the middle passing in comparison to his NFL peers, including 2024 starter Russell Wilson and Mason Rudolph, who’s back in the fold for the Steelers.
For starters, here are over the middle attempts and average throw depth to that area of the field:
Rodgers was well above the league average in the 2024 regular season in over the middle attempts with 317. He was one of seven players with more than 300 attempts, landing at seventh most last year.
The quantity was clearly there, especially compared to the other QBs we’re interested in. Wilson and Rudolph each had 151 over the middle attempts, landing in the bottom 10 of 39 qualifiers (min. 100 over the middle attempts).
So far, the tea leaves point to a reasonable expectation that more over the middle attempts could be coming with Rodgers at the helm. The flip side is Pittsburgh’s recent tendencies, limiting their passing in that area.
There is a sample size difference here, with Rodgers playing all 17 games, while Wilson (11 games) and Rudolph (eight) had less opportunities. Even when extrapolating Wilson’s numbers out to a full slate of games played, Rodgers over the middle pass attempts were far greater.
We also see that pass distance was closer to the line of scrimmage than most, with a 5.0 average throw depth for Rodgers that tied for 34th (fifth-least). Not what many commenters that follow my Steelers passing chart articles want to hear, clamoring for more intermediate and deep over the middle passes.
This point is re-emphasized with Wilson’s 5.3 over the middle average throw depth (T-30th), landing slightly above Rodgers in 2024. So, very similar results in terms of pass distance are what I’m anticipating.
Rudolph led focused players in 2024 at 6.2 (17th), landing barely above the league mean. This doesn’t necessarily mean rosier results, so let’s layer in some other stats.
Here are over the middle yards per attempt and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt – (pass yards + 20 pass TD) – 45(interceptions thrown) – sack yards/(passing attempts + sacks):
Wilson fared most positively last season as a well above average quarterback in both stats. His 8.6 yards per attempt far exceeded his average throw depth, meaning he got the ball to his playmakers, who thankfully provided a needed improvement in yards after catch in Pittsburgh. Paired with a strong 8.9 over the middle ANY/A that ranked sixth also deserves props.
So, it was definitely a quality over quantity season for Wilson’s 2024 with the Steelers. On the other hand, Rodgers was below the mean in each. Particularly his 7.3 yards per attempt (T-25th), with a matching ANY/A number (21st). Quantity over quality unfortunately, but closer to average than someone like Rudolph, who landed near the bottom of the results.
A hope is that Rodgers will have a better showing in 2025 with his new team. It seems likely that his over the middle attempts will go down in Pittsburgh, and capitalizing on these opportunities could go a long way into the effectiveness of the pass game.
For the last visual, I wanted to zoom in on touchdown and interception rates:
All three QBs in our sights had above average touchdown rates over the middle, with Wilson providing the best 1.3 over the middle interception rate of the bunch. This tied for sixth best, along with a 4.6 TD rate (T-15th). Clearly took care of the ball, but lower upside on the scoreboard. This came on a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio over the middle, compared to 16/5 in total. And 43.8 percent of his TDs were over the middle, with 40 percent interceptions.
While touchdowns and interceptions were accounted for in the ANY/A stat, we see that Rodgers fared much better in these numbers and above the mean among his peers. A 5.0 touchdown rate ranked 12th, and his 2.2 interception rate landed 16th.
The latter came as a bit of a surprise, considering Rodgers perfectly fits Pittsburgh’s ball security model, with the lowest total interception rate over a substantial two decades. More specifically, Rodgers had a 16-to-7 TD/INT ratio over the middle, compared to 28/11 overall.
This means 63.6 percent of Rodgers’ interceptions came in the middle of the field in 2024, compared to 57.1 percent of his touchdowns. The stats align with Tomlin’s belief that more turnovers come over the middle. Finding the risk/reward balance will hopefully look good for the Black and Gold in 2025.
