Bringing back an exercise I did ahead of the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers season. With the team one month away from reporting to training camp, it’s worth taking inventory of the team’s 91-man roster (the team is carrying an extra player because of EDGE Julius Welschof’s international exemption) and offering a framework of the odds that each player makes the 53-man roster.
As our previous exercises outlined, there are a few caveats.
– This percentage only refers to the odds the player makes the Steelers’ initial 53-man roster. It doesn’t consider their practice squad odds. With a 16-man taxi squad (17 with the exemption), many players who don’t have much chance to make the 53 will end up there. Keep that in mind when examining these percentages.
– It doesn’t consider or account for inevitable injuries. That will change the landscape of the roster, but those are unpredictable and won’t be factored in. What will be considered are potential trades and other roster moves to reshape the roster prior to Week 1.
– Those who are listed with identical percentages are ranked in alphabetical order.
We’ll begin this year’s list with the “long shots.” Players who are facing an uphill battle to make the initial roster. I loathe and won’t use the term “camp bodies.” That’s disrespectful phrasing, and it’s why I won’t put any player at zero percent. Still, the reality of the NFL is that making the 53 isn’t easy, and some players are set to be squeezed out before camp even begins. The path isn’t easy, but it also isn’t impossible. In 2024, we gave C Ryan McCollum just a 2-percent chance of making the 53, and he did it, even if Nate Herbig’s injury played a role.
We’ll work this list bottom-to-top. Here’s the 2025 names trying to prove me wrong.
STEELERS’ ROSTER LONG SHOTS (<10% CHANCE TO MAKE 53-MAN ROSTER)
TE JJ Galbreath – 10%
DL/EDGE DeMarvin Leal – 10%
WR Scotty Miller – 10%
RB Jonathan Ward – 10%
OT Gareth Warren – 10%
OL Nick Broeker – 5%
LB Devin Harper – 5%
WR Brandon Johnson – 5%
S Quindell Johnson – 5%
OG Steven Jones – 5%
DE Dean Lowry – 5%
WR Lance McCutcheon – 5%
OL Doug Nester – 5%
DE Esezi Otomewo – 5%
WR Roc Taylor – 5%
QB Skylar Thompson – 5%
NT Domenique Davis – 2%
RB Trey Sermon – 2%
EDGE Julius Welschof – 2%
WR Ke’Shawn Williams -2%
RB/ATH Max Hurleman – 1%
RB Evan Hull – 1%
DB D’Shawn Jamison – 1%
WR Montana Lemonious-Craig – 1%
EDGE Eku Leota – 1%
DB Cameron McCutcheon – 1%
CB Kyler McMichael – 1%
K Ben Sauls – 1%
DL Jacob Slade – 1%
As a plus athlete with production, Galbreath is an intriguing rookie to watch who has earned buzz this spring. Practice squad is more likely, but he could battle Connor Heyward for a spot, especially if Galbreath can show special-teams value. Leal feels like an afterthought as a fourth-year player injured early last season. Finding his path to the 53-man roster is difficult, though he did stick a season ago before his neck injury.
Miller made the initial 53 a season ago. He’s fast and willing to put his hand in the pile, but knowing the team could add another option, and even if not, he’s a No. 6-type of option right now. Ward is shaping up to return to the practice squad as a quick call-up if there are backfield injuries. He can block, catch, and play on special teams. Warren signed with the team after a rookie minicamp tryout. That usually would give him even lower odds, but tackle depth is thin, giving him a chance.
Among the five-percenters, ILB Devin Harper shouldn’t be completely counted out. He’s in the back of a crowded room, but he’s athletic with some NFL experience, 12 career games. He reunites with ILBs Coach Scott McCurley, who was on the Dallas Cowboys’ staff when Harper was drafted by the team. McCurley doesn’t have final decision-making power, but could put in a good word.
WR Brandon Johnson has drawn praise from WRs Coach Zach Azzanni. He caught only one pass a year ago but should be considered a deep sleeper. S Quindell Johnson could be in a similar boat as a No. 5 safety.
It’s easy to forget DL Dean Lowry is even on the Steelers roster, and frankly, it’s surprising he’s still here. He’s a veteran, but the Steelers have turned over the defensive line room. OL Doug Nester has a chance thanks to versatility and spent all last fall on the team’s practice squad, though he’ll enter camp firmly outside the bubble.
Some will scoff at QB Skylar Thompson even being given a five-percent chance. I considered going to 10, but he has stadium experience and can’t be discounted entirely against a rookie in Will Howard, who will likely make rookie mistakes.
The two-percent crew has long odds, clearly, but can have some narrow cases to make it. RB Trey Sermon has the size the team looks for, EDGE Julius Welschof flashed last summer before a late preseason knee injury, and NT Domenique Davis’ path becomes slightly stronger following NT Montravius Adams’ release. WR Ke’Shawn Williams flashed in college and could theoretically grab a sixth spot.
The one-percenters shouldn’t be ignored, but it’s hard to see them making the Steelers roster without injury or an all-star summer. Hurleman is a name to watch thanks to his athleticism and versatility, but he and everyone else in this camp are buried at the bottom of the depth chart. Injuries elsewhere could make their spot expendable.
