Expectations are quite high for Pittsburgh Steelers’ rookie running back Kaleb Johnson in Year 1 in the Steel City.
Despite being a third-round pick at No. 83 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, Johnson was considered one of the best running backs in the class. His landing in Pittsburgh has been praised repeatedly as a great fit from a scheme and playing-time perspective.
Landing in the zone rushing attack that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants to utilize is perfect for Johnson, who excelled in one season in a zone scheme at Iowa, where he led the Big Ten in rushing.
With that fit within the scheme and the playing time opportunity that should be in front of him in 2025, ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Johnson to be among the best rookie running backs in the class in two key statistics. In a piece for ESPN.com Wednesday morning, Clay projected Johnson to finish third in rushing yards and third in touchdowns from scrimmage among his fellow rookie running backs.
In rushing yards, Clay projects 947 rushing yards from Johnson, putting him behind Las Vegas’ Ashton Jeanty with 1,120 yards, and Los Angeles’ Omarion Hampton at 961 yards.
“Day 2 picks Johnson, [Quinshon] Judkins, [RJ] Harvey, and TreVeyon Henderson should also play major roles right out of the gate. Their production is a bit tricky to project, as we haven’t seen a ton of high-end success from second- and third-round backs,” Clay writes regarding the projection for Johnson. “Since 2011, only 13 of 74 RBs selected in Rounds 2-3 have reached 800 rushing yards in Year 1. Fourteen of them reached six rushing touchdowns.
“If this rookie running back class really is special, then we should expect more output from later picks. Johnson will likely be the primary ball carrier in Pittsburgh.”
Johnson should be Pittsburgh’s primary ball carrier ahead of Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. While Warren has a more well-rounded skillset and experience in Smith’s offense, and Gainwell has experience in the NFL in general, Johnson just projects as a better fit and matches the size, speed, and play style that the Steelers tend to gravitate towards at the running back position.
He doesn’t have elite speed from a testing perspective (4.57 40-yard dash), but he consistently hit the home run during his time at Iowa and was a real playmaker for the Hawkeyes. Should he see consistent playing time, that should carry over into Pittsburgh.
Along with the projected rushing yards, Clay sees Johnson finding the end zone quite often. He projects him to have seven rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown, finishing third among all rookie RBs in touchdowns from scrimmage with eight total, behind only Hampton (11) and Jeanty (9).
A rookie season of 947 yards and eight total touchdowns would be encouraging from Johnson, but it would all be dependent on the number of touches and snaps played compared to Warren and Gainwell. That’s a reasonable projection from Johnson in Smith’s scheme, and would be rather encouraging moving forward, too, as the time in Pittsburgh appears rather bright for Johnson.
