The Pittsburgh Steelers’ backfield could look different in 2025. Najee Harris is set to be a free agent, and Cordarrelle Patterson might not make it to the second year of his contract, leaving only Jaylen Warren set to return on a restricted free agent tender. Fit in Arthur Smith’s scheme is key and supposedly the reason why the team declined Harris’ fifth-year option, making him a free agent this March in the first place.
So how did Harris and Warren fit in the Steelers’ run game? Our Clayton Eckert pulled the numbers via Sports Information Solutions (SIS) that break down each back’s numbers by run scheme. We only have attempts and yards-per-carry and unfortunately don’t have data for run-success rate, a key metric, but this will be a basic and starting point for understanding success by what matters most in Smith’s running game.
Below is a chart of each scheme. I only included ones where at least one of the backs had at least five carries. Bolded are the player with the higher YPC. Our takeaways will follow.
| Scheme | Najee Harris | Jaylen Warren |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Zone | 4.2 YPC (55 att) | 3.1 YPC (30 att) |
| Outside Zone | 3.8 YPC (72 att) | 4.7 YPC (27 att) |
| Pitch | 3.5 YPC (59 att) | 4.6 YPC (22 att) |
| Duo | 4.2 YPC (10 att) | 5.5 YPC (5 att) |
| Power | 2.8 YPC (11 att) | 3.1 YPC (7 att) |
| Stretch | 2.9 YPC (13 att) | 6.1 YPC (8 att) |
| Zone Counter | 4.1 YPC (8 att) | 5.3 YPC (5 att) |
| Trap | 8.5 YPC (13 att) | 4.3 YPC (4 att) |
| Counter | 2.6 YPC (5 att) | 8.0 YPC (1 att) |
| Lead | 5.7 YPC (9 att) | 5.3 YPC (3 att) |
Of the 10 qualifying schemes, Warren had a higher YPC in seven of them. The three Harris beat him in were inside zone, trap, and lead.
What should be noted is the sample size for Warren is smaller across the board. Partially because he was the No. 2 back and partially due to time he missed because of injury. Warren had a better YPC on counters but with just one attempt. So it doesn’t tell us much.
Of the core concepts, Warren still was better overall. Smith is known for his outside zone system and Jaylen Warren was nearly a full yard stronger than Najee Harris, 4.7 versus 3.8. He was also far better on pitches and stretches. Warren had more success when he got the ball out on the perimeter.
Largely, Harris had more success between the tackles. He was better on inside zone, the most frequent call of the Steelers’ run game. Warren struggled here at just 3.1 YPC. On traps and lead runs, though the sample sizes aren’t large, Harris also won out.
What should we take away from these numbers? There’s a mix. Warren is more effective on the outside, Harris about on par on interior runs and better on inside zone. That data won’t surprise many but it’s worth pointing out that in our 2023 study of the same topic, Harris was more effective on outside zone runs than Warren. In the first year under Smith, that flipped. Harris’ numbers on outside zone dipped from 4.3 yards in 2023 to 3.8 yards in 2024 while they were identical on inside zone (4.2 versus 4.2).
It suggests Harris isn’t ideal for Smith’s frequent perimeter run calls. But at the same time, while Pittsburgh may be looking for big-play potential at the position, and there’s a case to be made for that, Warren put up solid numbers on those run schemes. If anything, could they find a back better on inside zone, duo, and power?
That starts getting granular and comes with layers of nuance and discussion. It’s not like the team can only call perimeter runs with Warren and interior calls with the next back. These are beginning data points to review the good, bad, and fit in Arthur Smith’s run scheme now that there’s a season to evaluate.
Gut check says Harris isn’t the right fit. It suggests the team will move on from him and he’ll play elsewhere in 2025. But time will tell if the Steelers surprise and bring him back, preserving the top two runners they’ve had since 2022.
