There’s only one way for the Pittsburgh Steelers to climb out of football purgatory. The Steelers need a franchise quarterback. It’s obvious. Just look at the final four teams playing yesterday: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts. All undeniable long-term options. Finding one is a lot tougher.
Many think the path to getting there means a lot of losing. A bottom-out, tank season that lands Pittsburgh a top-five draft pick and the chance to draft a can’t-miss, blue-chip prospect. Painful as it is, that is one way of getting there. The Houston Texans and Washington Commanders are recent examples of it. Terrible seasons lead to high pick leads to quarterback leads to immediate franchise turnaround.
But it’s not the only way. That might be the biggest misconception around. While the strongest odds of finding that next quarterback come in the first round, it doesn’t require a terrible year and early draft pick. Even in the Steelers’ current situation, a slightly-above average and Wild Card team, that can’t be an excuse for failure to find their future.
History shows it. Take the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens. Before they found their franchise arms, Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson, here are the records they had the year before and draft pick they were originally slotted.
Buffalo Bills: 9-7, 21st overall
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-4, 27th overall
Baltimore Ravens: 9-7, 16th overall
Teams in similar situations as Pittsburgh. Good but far from great. Wild Card, playoff bound, unable to get over the hump.
Those teams made the right moves for the final push. Buffalo climbed the ladder, initially trading up to No. 12 in a deal with the Cincinnati Bengals and again to No. 7 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to grab Allen. After re-mapping his mechanics to improve his accuracy, he became a star.
The Chiefs had further to climb. They made the move in one swoop, trading up from No. 27 to No. 10 and grabbing Mahomes. After refining his game just a bit and giving him a year to sit, he’s a future first-ballot Hall of Famer looking to three-peat.
Baltimore was in its final years with Joe Flacco but had an eye toward the future. The Ravens traded down twice to snag TE Hayden Hurst before trading back up into the end of the first round to take Jackson. Think about it. Baltimore ranked Hurst, a 25-year-old former Pittsburgh Pirates minor league pitcher, higher than it did Jackson. But they still found their franchise quarterback.
The NFL has plenty of top-five-picked franchise quarterbacks. Prospects the Steelers wouldn’t be in position to land. Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Daniels, and Stroud. But it’s not the only way. Jackson, Mahomes, Allen, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love are first-round examples of how to get those guys without a prized draft pick. In 2024, there were six quarterbacks taken allowing teams even like the Denver Broncos to find Bo Nix, who has the early signs of being their answer. The Green Bay Packers were in the NFC title game the year before taking Love while the Broncos won eight games and finished second in the AFC West. More examples of not needing a three-win campaign and top-three pick to get a guy.
There are examples of landing franchise arms beyond the first round. Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Brock Purdy, even Hurts in the second round. But the hit rate past the top 32, which is already a coin flip, really drops off. There is a dividing line with quarterbacks. First or third round or later. Very few come from the second round, the below study shows it, and the recent hit rate is essentially only Hurts.
Expecting to find a franchise player from the third round and beyond is foolish. The commonality for most teams are homegrown first rounders and those should be the footsteps the Steelers follow. But it doesn’t mean they have to finish with four wins to get there.
Trading up might be the way to go. That’s what the Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens did. They were bold and risky moves but with major payoff. Those teams did their homework, saw past the questions Allen, Mahomes, and Jackson had (and they all did, even if it’s hard to remember), and did what it took to get them. When it’s a franchise quarterback, there’s no such thing as paying “too much.” Baltimore even found a creative way to move down, stockpile picks, and then go back up. That took additional risk, and the board had to break right, but the Ravens made it work and prospered.
This isn’t to say 2025 must be the year for Pittsburgh to find that quarterback. Given the outlook of the class, doing so is unlikely and hard. There’s only two first-rounders this year in Miami (Fla.)’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. Given the quarterback-needy teams sitting at the top of the draft, Tennessee, the New York Giants, and Cleveland Browns, that pair may not make it out of the top three.
But in most classes, there are more options. And franchise arms exist past the most immediate selections. The Steelers can’t sit on their hands and wait for a dream quarterback to fall out of the sky. Nor should they mill around until the bad season happens and they’re picking fifth. Aggressive and calculated moves is how the “purgatory” teams climbed out of their hole.
Here’s the reality. Pittsburgh won’t again become Super Bowl contenders until it finds a franchise quarterback. And the overwhelming odds suggest the way to do that is drafting a quarterback in the first round. They don’t come with guarantees, the Steelers screwed up taking Kenny Pickett, but that is the path.
Blaming 9-8/10-7 finishes is no excuse. Biding time until the bottom drops out is wasteful. This defense won’t age out for at least a couple years, and Mike Tomlin seems incapable of a five-win season. This is a Steelers team that won eight games with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges. Pittsburgh clearly has a low ceiling, but it also clearly has a high floor.
The Steelers can defend themselves with circumstances. They went all-in during Ben Roethlisberger’s final years, and he was a quarterback who wasn’t going to love seeing his heir drafted while he was competing. They tried with Pickett. They could’ve ended up with Trey Lance or Zach Wilson and been set back even more. But none of that matters. All that matters is the future. All that matters is finding a franchise arm. Something Pittsburgh is capable of doing no matter how its season goes. Bad, average, or good. It’s only a willingness of their ability to scout, identify, and try. That’s what is holding them back.
