The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) are preparing in hopes of righting the ship of a three-game losing streak against Cincinnati (8-8). The Bengals are surging on a high of four straight wins, with playoff hopes on the line. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is looking to squander that and gain momentum.
Let’s dive into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – QB Joe Burrow is one of the best in the league and could claim 2024 the triple crown as a passer (attempts, yards, touchdowns):
Burrow has 4,641 pass yards and 42 touchdowns on 606 attempts. Topping the league in each is rather impressive and an extreme challenge for a Steeler defense that has waned recently. Thankfully the unit looks healthy, and returning players will hopefully aid communication and a strong performance against this tough task.
Within all of Burrow’s success are other strengths of course. Here’s QB passer ratings and completion rate above expected:
Burrow ranks third in each, with a 109.8 passer rating and 4.7 completion rate above expected. Once again, we see the extreme value he’s adding as an MVP worthy player. Their defense has played better as of late, doing enough to finally support this lethal passing offense that now has a shot at the postseason. Come on Steelers defense.
Pittsburgh certainly wants to do more on the offensive end as well, scoring 17 points or fewer in their last three losses. We see that QB Russell Wilson has been above average on the chart this season, with a 97.4 passer rating (12th) and 2.9 completion rate above expected (7th), 2,334 yards (22nd), 15 touchdowns (T-22nd), on 305 attempts (27th).
That came in 10 games played, hence the low quantity ranks (33 QBs, min. 250 attempts). Above the mean in the others point to an overall quality season, but is coming off some painful mistake games against playoff teams. Had his lowest 65.7 passer rating of 2024 against the Chiefs last game. Season-high 126.4 number against Cincinnati in Week 13, in an offensive shootout win, and hopefully Wilson cooks the better meal Saturday night.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Burrow and his great playmakers have been on fire and will surely look to keep it going. Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase is at the head of the snake, atop the NFL in several stats as well:
First, we see Chase leads the NFL comfortably in TDs (four more than any other WR), and yards (only player above 1,500). Then you have Tee Higgins, one of the most formidable WR2’s in the league. He has ten touchdowns, making the Bengals wide receivers the only duo with double digit receiving scores. Wow.
Defenses have poured a ton of attention to Chase of late, as you should, but it’s allowed more opportunity for Higgins the past couple games. Eleven or more targets in each, and three touchdowns in the overtime win against a solid Denver defense their last game. He’s questionable though (ankle/knee). Pittsburgh is healthier overall, including CB Joey Porter Jr. getting back, but Donte Jackson is questionable (back). These statuses are huge.
Recent issues for Pittsburgh’s defense have been communication and tackling, so let’s look at WR separation and yards after catch above expected (73 WRs, min. 55 targets):
Once again, we see Chase separates himself (pun intended) with an above average 3.1 number that ranks 22nd. But where he’s really flourished is 2.5 YAC above expected, best in the NFL among qualifiers.
Most of the other matchup players are above the mean in YAE, including Higgins, despite not getting much separation. His 1.3 number ranks 13th, so two top 15 yards after catch forces. That’s scary, and Pittsburgh needs sound coverage and tackling in hopes of limiting the scoreboard. Chase and Higgins each had a touchdown last matchup, along with Andrei Iosivas as well, who could get free again with all Pittsburgh has to account for.
Pittsburgh WRs will be looking to aid a bigger offensive day, which will hopefully include YAC. George Pickens has the better 1.1 YAE (15th) than Austin (19th), despite the latter getting notably more separation towards league average, a 35th to 71st (third-worst) comparison.
Yes, Pickens is primarily a deep threat, but hoping we see a more varied gameplan in his routes/targets as we’ve seen at times. More please. Especially considering Bengal CB Cam Taylor-Britt is questionable (ankle), and might not be 100-percent even if he goes.
RUNNING BACKS – First year starter Chase Brown (questionable/ankle) is versatile, doing nice things for Cincinnati. He’s carried the load primarily, with 229 attempts (14th), 4.3 average (22nd), 990 yards (16th), and seven TDs (T-16th) out of 45 qualifiers (min. 90 attempts).
For comparison: Steeler Najee Harris – 251 attempts (7th), 4.0 average (33rd), 1,007 yards (T-13th), five TDs (T-23rd). Jaylen Warren – 114 attempts (37th), 4.3 average (23rd), 490 yards (37th), one TD (T-42nd).
Here’s average time to line of scrimmage and efficiency (measures north/south runners):
Brown leads the NFL in time to the line, averaging 2.61 seconds. This illustrates him as a very decisive back hitting the hole, a catalyst to his success. His 3.72 efficiency ranks 19th, so has done more shake and bake after the line to gain. Pittsburgh must be gap sound to hopefully limit Brown (if he plays). Important to monitor, considering Zach Moss also landed on IR (neck).
Warren is also above the mean in each data point, slightly. He’s averaged 2.78 seconds to the line (22nd) and 3.7 efficiency (18th), while Harris has been below the mean in each: 2.84 TLOS (33rd), 4.21 efficiency (35th). Really shows the difference in rushers, Warren deserving of more opportunity in my opinion.
Harris led the way for Pittsburgh in the first matchup with 75 rush yards, while Warren had just nine yards on three carries. Looking for a much bigger day from him. Knock on wood the run game leans in Pittsburgh’s favor on both sides of the ball.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously key to any matchup.
Here are PFF blocking grades for the starters (min. 500 snaps) through Week 17:
No matchup player is above the mean in each blocking grade. PFF is certainly subjective but does point to the Steelers o-line not reaching expected potential as a unit as the season’s worn on. All qualifying Cincinnati lineman are below average in run blocking also stands out.
Bengals Week 17 starters (last game):
LT Orlando Brown Jr.: 51.0 RBLK (60th/66), 75.9 PBLK (26th)
LG Cody Ford (just two games at G): 49.9 RBLK (62nd/66), 50.4 PBLK (63rd)
C Ted Karras: 52.0 RBLK (29th/30), 77.2 PBLK (3rd)
RG Alex Cappa: 53.2 RBLK (59th/64), 38.2 PBLK (64th)
RT Amarius Mims (questionable/hand): 53.7 RBLK (56th/66), 62.0 PBLK (53rd)
Their starting tackles are both banged up, and Mims is questionable. That should bode well for the Steelers strong edge rushers, who will aim to make Burrow uncomfortable and limit his prowess. Ford has filled in at tackle substantially and was moved to guard when the starters were available last week. They are higher on his play than the grades suggest, and it will be interesting if he gets the nod over Cordell Volson at LG again.
Underwhelming grades overall, but Karras ranks third among all centers in pass blocking, while Brown is above average at LT. He is playing through a tough fibula injury, facing EDGE Alex Highsmith, who was unavailable last time the teams played. That’s a key matchup and would go a long way to success if he can pressure Burrow and get him down on the blindside, and considering all the attention T.J. Watt gets on the other side.
Also hoping Pittsburgh’s run defense has a strong day, but no doubt about it, the Bengals have leaned on the pass far more this season: pass attempts (2nd), rush attempts (30th). Hope Pittsburgh’s defense returns to looking like one of the best units in football against this great offense.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore: 64.2 RBLK (41st/66), 68.8 PBLK (41st)
LG Isaac Seumalo: 70.0 RBLK (20th/64), 61.7 PBLK (46th)
C Zach Frazier: 80.5 RBLK (4th/30), 64.7 PBLK (13th)
RG Mason McCormick: 53.4 RBLK (58th/64), 62.2 PBLK (42nd)
RT Broderick Jones: 65.9 RBLK (38th/66), 54.0 PBLK (62nd)
Frazier clearly stands out most positively, namely a top five run blocker at his position. He’s had a solid season and deservingly won the team award for rookie of the year. Seumalo has a respectable RBLK, and Moore is just above average at tackle in PBLK, though it’s waned against tougher competition of late.
This is concerning considering Bengals EDGE Trey Hendrickson, tied for the league-lead in sacks is his matchup, and the Steelers o-line just allowed the most pressure on Wilson in all of 2024 last game. Hendrickson led the team with four pressures the last Week 13 meeting, with Moore allowing a team-high two hurries, but no sacks. I’d take that again.
Though it’s been an underwhelming season for Jones, he’s coming off arguably his best game against Kansas City. Cincy starter Sam Hubbard is ruled out, and hopefully Jones can show out against their typical rotation players. McCormick has been better than his grades suggest overall this year. My main hope for the interior o-line is better pass pro, considering the Bengals lone sack came there, and linebackers mugged in for multiple pressures too.
TIGHT ENDS – Mike Gesicki leads the matchup with 73 targets (14th) and 597 yards (12th), and has two touchdowns this season, tied for 19th out of 33 qualifying TEs (min. 45 targets). He presents challenges as a secondary option, athletic with size that presents matchup issues.
Steeler Pat Freiermuth is coming off his most targets in 2024 (eight), and ending the season with similar involvement would be refreshing going into the postseason. On the year, he has 67 targets (18th), 570 yards (14th), and encouragingly six touchdowns (T-sixth). One of these came last Bengals matchup, and hope that reoccurs to get the stench of an interception thrown his way and a fumble turnover off his back.
Here’s intended air yards and catch rates for the position:
First, we see that Freiermuth leads the NFL with an 85.1 catch rate, impressively. That has been on a below average 6.1 intended air yardage (20th). High percentage throws overall but doesn’t negate his reliably stellar hands. In comparison, Gesicki is above the mean in each, targeted more down the field with 7.9 intended air yards and a solid 78.1 catch rate that both rank eighth.
Tight ends have gotten free against Pittsburgh’s defense far too often recently, and the Steelers are looking for a solid game against Gesicki and company. In the first matchup, the Steelers allowed no TDs to tight ends, thankfully. But four players had an explosive reception: Chase, Higgins, Brown, and Gesicki. Tightening up the bolts would be huge in optimistic victory.
DEFENSE – Cincinnati’s unit has made some nice strides as of late, while Pittsburgh has gone the other way. Level of competition is important to note, with their last four wins coming against Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, and Denver. Not the most imposing offenses overall to say the least, compared to the Steelers gauntlet.
Pittsburgh handed the Bengals their last loss, but the 44-38 scoreboard emphasizes the Steelers defense aiming to limit them more this go-round.
Let’s look at some defensive stats (2024/through Week 12) to see trends:
Pass Yards: Pittsburgh (23rd/13th). Cincinnati (24th/19th)
Rush Yards: Steelers (7th/4th). Bengals (21st/19th)
In terms of raw yardage, both teams have trended the wrong way the last five games. The biggest change has been Pittsburgh’s pass defense, dropping 11 spots in that span. Not what you want to see facing Burrow and company, and it highlights this huge key more specifically.
Cincinnati’s season ranks provide some optimism as the Steelers offense looks to get back on track, if they get back to their turnover culture: protect it and take it away. Perhaps the biggest key, the typical formula that aids victory in the Steel City.
Situational success (or lack thereof) is obviously huge. Here are season rankings:
Third down: Steelers (2nd). Bengals (24th)
Fourth down: Bengals (24th). Steelers (29th)
Red zone: Steelers (15th). Bengals (T-30th)
Third downs stand out as an advantage for Pittsburgh on the season, but Cincy has improved the last five games. Fourth downs have been a bugaboo for both teams, particularly the Steelers, which has had their great third down ranking feel worse too often and of late.
Pittsburgh started the year off hot in red zone defense, but another waning part of the unit that will hopefully end strong against the Bengals great red zone offense (T-fourth). Cincinnati has been one of the worst red zone defenses this season though, but have allowed a bit less to the opposition than earlier in 2024. The Steelers red zone struggles on both sides of the ball have me concerned.
To close, here’s a visual of defenses pass and run EPA (measures overall scoring impact):
Pass Defense EPA (2024/through Week 12): Steelers (14th/9th), Bengals (23rd/25th)
Run Defense EPA (2024/through Week 12): Steelers (16th/9th), Bengals (29th/29th)
Here we see consistent downtrends again for Pittsburgh’s defense, who were top ten going into the Bengals last matchup. That was a clear point when things started to unravel for the Steelers defense outside of the Cleveland win the last five games. Obviously hoping they get back on track, looking more dominant than they’ve shown in a while, to the potential we saw earlier in 2024.
The Bengals are still below average in each, standing pat in the run defense ranks. Pittsburgh ending the season with a nice ground day on offense would be refreshing heading into the playoffs. That would also aid the Steelers pass game that needs improvement as well, against a Bengals defense that has trended the right direction against aerial attacks.
Of course, you have to score more points than the other team, and Cincinnati can do it in bunches. One of my biggest keys is Pittsburgh’s first drive stats. If the Steelers offense can finally get their first touchdown of 2024 on their opening drive, it could set the tone for sticking with their ground game and controlling time of possession and keeping Burrow on the sideline.
Their defensive alignment discourages run overall, though, with Wilson and the Steelers passing game perhaps having to win in similar shootout fashion. The question is, do they have it in them again? Pittsburgh’s shown the ability, but the worry is not as consistently as Cincinnati’s offense. I can’t wait to see how it shakes out to wrap a bow on the 2024 season.
