Officially locked into playing the Baltimore Ravens on the road Wild Card weekend, the Pittsburgh Steelers are heavy underdogs with oddsmakers confident their four-game losing streak will turn into five, ending their season. Per DraftKings, Baltimore opens as 8-5-point favorites for next weekend’s postseason contest. The over/under is set at 46.5.
DraftKings initially opened at 7.5 before the line jumped up shortly after the matchup was cemented. Other outlets like FanDuel also have the Ravens favored by 8.5-points.
An official date and time should be announced late tonight. In the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers are 0-3 when 7.5-point underdogs or worse. Ten point dogs in last year’s Wild Card game, Pittsburgh fell 31-17 to the Buffalo Bills. In the 2021 Wild Card contest against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Steelers lost 42-21 as 12.5 point dogs. They covered as 7.5-point dogs in 2016 but still lost to the Denver Broncos 23-16.
It’s no secret why the line is heavily tilted in Baltimore’s favor. They’re one of football’s hottest teams while Pittsburgh is one of the coldest, the first 10-win team since 1986 to lose their final four games of the regular season and back into the playoffs. It was the Steelers first four-game losing streak to end any season since 1998.
Baltimore is riding a four-game winning streak, undefeated since their Week 14 bye week. That included beating two Wild Card teams, taking down the Steelers 34-17 in Week 16 and blowing out the Houston Texans 31-2 four days later. QB Lamar Jackson is one of the top MVP candidates with the chance to become a rare three-peat winner. RB Derrick Henry was a perfect addition to their run-first style, finishing the year with 1,925 yards and a league-best 16 touchdowns. He went off for 165-yards in the rematch win over Pittsburgh.
WR Zay Flowers’ status is uncertain after spraining his knee in Saturday’s finale against the Cleveland Browns. But even if he can’t suit up, Baltimore has plenty of targets for Jackson. WR Rashod Bateman is a talented wideout while the team boasts a strong tight end duo featuring Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. The Ravens’ offense spreads the football around, a whopping 11 players catching touchdowns this season.
Defensively, they perked up after serving as the team’s weakness the first half of the season. They allowed no more than 17 points over their final four games. The Steelers failed to score more than 17 in any of their final four contests. The pass rush features veteran Kyle Van Noy and his 12.5 sacks, earning a nice payday with a takedown Saturday. CB Marlon Humphrey and S Kyle Hamilton are two of the best at their respective positions. Humphrey had a pick-six off QB Russell Wilson in Week 16.
Pittsburgh won the first matchup in Week 11, 18-16 in a classic Steelers-Ravens finish. After finding the end zone late, Baltimore’s two-point try fell incomplete and Pittsburgh hung on. The Ravens flipped the script in Week 16, winning 34-17 and preventing the Steelers from locking up the division.
Instead, Pittsburgh will go a fourth-straight season without an AFC North crown, their longest drought in more than 30 years.
The Steelers and Ravens last met in the postseason in 2014, Baltimore winning 30-17 in the Wild Card. Anything is possible and largely, these games are close, but Pittsburgh will have their work cut out for them next weekend.
