The Pittsburgh Steelers’ season may be over, but that means it’s time to shift focus to the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Steelers don’t yet know their draft position, but after a Wild Card loss and given the records of the other playoff teams, the pick can end up being one of three spots. Depending on the results of Sunday’s game on this Super Wild Card weekend, they can end up with any pick from 19 to 21 in the first round.
That will affect their pick in every round, so there’s a decent amount of draft value to be gained or lost, depending on the results of the games. A fifth-round pick is also hanging in the balance, depending on playoff results.
Today, I will highlight all three of the important games and what they could mean for the Steelers. Here are the games you should watch and the teams you should root for to give the Steelers the best possible draft outcomes.
Before we dive in, it’s important to understand the NFL Draft rules and the tiebreakers to determine pick order. In general, it goes in reverse order of standings, and the Wild Card losers get picks 19 through 24. Within the Wild Card losing group, it goes in reverse order of win-loss record. To break ties, it then looks at strength of schedule. If there are still ties it looks at conference and divisional tie breakers (if applicable), head-to-head (if applicable), and then record against common opponents.
The Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Denver Broncos are all tied in record and strength of schedule, while the LA Rams had a slightly tougher SOS.
Denver Broncos At Buffalo Bills: Root For Broncos
The Steelers and Broncos ended with the same 10-7 record, but the Steelers won the head-to-head and thus edged the Broncos out in the conference tiebreaker in the event of a tie. If they lose, the Steelers will be picking after the Broncos, so the best they could get is pick 20, pending the outcome below.
The Broncos are currently 8-point underdogs for this 1:00 PM ET kickoff Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. Washington Commanders: Root For Buccaneers
The Steelers and Buccaneers are tied in record and strength of schedule. They aren’t in the same conference and didn’t play head-to-head, so it moves to record against common opponents. The Steelers are 8-3 against common opponents, while the Buccaneers are 5-6. Like the Broncos, if the Buccaneers lose, they will be picking above the Steelers.
The Buccaneers are currently 3-point favorites for tonight’s 8:00 PM ET kickoff.
Los Angeles Rams Vs. Minnesota Vikings: Root For Vikings
This one is less important, but every bit of draft value helps. The Steelers currently have the Rams’ fifth-round pick from the Kevin Dotson trade before the start of the 2023 season. The further the Rams go in the playoffs, the worse that pick gets.
The Rams are 2.5-point underdogs for Monday night’s 8:00 PM ET kickoff.
In summary, the Steelers will have the 19th pick if both the Broncos and Buccaneers win. They will have the 20th pick if one wins and the other loses, and that leaves the 21st pick if both of them lose. The fifth-round pick is just gravy, but it is still worth tracking.
The Steelers’ draft order can be mostly set if results break the right way, or they can be held up by the Rams for as long as they remain in the tournament. Last year, for comparison, the Steelers held the 20th pick, so it should be just about the same this time around.
